Most of you are gearing up for fantasy football drafts as the regular season approaches. Our goal here at eDraft has been to help you through that process. Unlike weekly buy/sell articles that we will be publishing throughout the season, this one is going to focus specifically on the draft process and where individual players stand in terms of ADP (average draft position).
We start with quarterbacks and will be adding other positions as the week progresses.
For the purposes of this piece, we will use one of our partners, Fantasy Pros.
Buy
Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers (ADP: 105)
Rivers finished last season as the sixth-ranked fantasy quarterback. Despite his success with Keenan Allen, Antonio Gates and others in the Chargers passing game, the fantasy community doesn't seem to be sold on him heading into the 2014 season. With an ADP towards the end of the ninth round, Rivers represents a ton of value at this point.
When utilizing tiers during the draft process, Rivers likely won't be among the first two sets of quarterbacks you are targeting. But he will likely give you more value than a Colin Kaepernick or Russell Wilson rounds earlier.
Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals (ADP: 128)
Here's another quarterback that's not necessarily getting a ton of respect around the fantasy community. Based on ADP, Dalton is currently the 17th quarterback off the board in standard 12-team leagues. That means he's valued as nothing more than a mid-tier RB2. Interestingly enough, Dalton finished fifth among quarterbacks in fantasy points last season.
With the likes of Giovani Bernard and Tyler Eifert entering their second seasons and a new offensive coordinator in the form of Hue Jackson, there is no reason to believe that Dalton can't finish among the top-10 fantasy quarterbacks in 2014. With an ADP towards the end of Round 11, he fits the late-round quarterback strategy to a T.
Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins (ADP: 166)
I wouldn't recommend that you pick Tannehill up as a QB1 option heading into the 2014 season, but he's someone that you may very well want to stream with a bottom-end QB1 option to form what could be a solid tandem at quarterback. This could enable you to pick and choose your matchups throughout the course of the season. Despite an inconsistent 2013 season, Tannehill finished right behind Tom Brady and Matt Ryan in fantasy points.
Which brings me to quarterbacks you should sell (forget about) come draft time.
Sell
Tom Brady, New England Patriots (ADP: 55)
Brady is getting drafted high based solely on name recognition. Fact: he was the 14th-ranked fantasy quarterback last season. Fact: he doesn't have a strong wide receiver group to throw to. Fact: Rob Gronkowski is an injury waiting to happen. The idea that Brady's ADP is a full five rounds higher than Philip Rivers is absolutely ridiculous.
While you can expect Brady to put up better fantasy numbers than he did last season, it's hard to justify a fifth-round pick on him...especially when players at other positions like Shane Vereen, Ray Rice and Michael Floyd are available.
Wait until MUCH later in the draft if you're simply in the game to find an average fantasy performer from the quarterback position. Build up the rest of your roster and refuse to buy into a generic selection based on name recognition alone.
Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons (ADP: 66)
Losing Sam Baker for the season is a huge loss for Ryan and Co. He was going to be relied on to be Ryan's blindside protector. With a passing game that relies heavily on timing routes, it remains to be seen whether Jake Matthews will be able to hold up in front of Ryan.
While it's foolish to use Ryan's 2013 numbers (15th-ranked fantasy quarterback) when drawing a conclusion here, it also must be noted that the Falcons quarterback doesn't represent value in the middle of the sixth round. Colin Kaepernick, Russell Wilson, Tony Romo and Jay Cutler are immediately behind Ryan in terms of ADP. All four will have better fantasy seasons in 2014.