Where are Russell Wilson, Robert Griffin III and Andrew Luck when you need them? As most football fans know, the 2013 NFL draft class didn't exactly feature the same elite talent at the quarterback position as the previous event in Radio City Music Hall.
That being said, we simply cannot expect that type of talent to take over the National Football League on a yearly basis. After all, there are some that have concluded (myself included) that Ryan Tannehill would have been the clear No. 1 quarterback taken this past April.
As it is, we still have to plan for some of those selected to see the field this upcoming season.
Among those quarterbacks who have a great opportunity to start as rookies are EJ Manuel of the Buffalo Bills and Geno Smith of the New York Jets.
Here at eDraft, we have long consdered Manuel one of the top, if not the top, quarterback in the draft class. We were one of the first outlets to peg him as a first-round talent back in January. Obviously, this doesn't indicate that we believe Manuel will be a better fantasy option than Smith. That's an entirely different game.
Today's article will compare these two youngsters from a fantasy aspect, both in terms of standard redraft leagues and dynasty leagues.
EJ Manuel, Buffalo Bills
New head coach Doug Marrone got his guy when Buffalo traded down in the first round to select this Florida State product. He did this immediately after the Bills signed veteran Kevin Kolb away from the Arizona Cardinals. Without going into too much detail, it has been a common happening around the league that new regimes bring in their own guy to take over under center. This should be the case with Manuel in 2013.
With that in mind, it's also important to note that Manuel is nowhere near ready to make a major impact as a rookie. While extremely talented, he still has a lot of issues that he needs to overcome in order to become a consistent starter in the NFL. He struggles making progressions, doesn't possess the best pocket awareness and can struggle with mechanics. Those are three signs of a rookie quarterback ready to take his bumps and bruises during his rookie campaign.
In terms of talent, Manuel has everything you look for in a future franchise guy. He has a cannon for an arm, displays solid accuracy on both intermediate and deep passes and sees the field extremely well. These are attributes you really can't teach.
In addition, Manuel progressed each season at Florida State. Following Christian Ponder's graduation in 2010, Manuel took over as the Seminoles starter and never looked back. He completed an astonishing 65.3 percent of his passes with 18 touchdowns and eight interceptions as a junior in 2011.
He turned in an even better senior season, throwing just 10 interceptions in 387 passing attempts for one of the better ratios among 2013 NFL draft picks. He also accounted for 27 touchdowns and over 3,700 yards.
Manuel now looks to win the starting job for a Bills team with a ton of weapons on offense. C.J. Spiller will definitely help out of the backfield. He racked up over 100 receptions in his final three seasons at Clemson and has a total of 82 receptions over the last two seasons in Buffalo. That type of athleticism is surely going to help Manuel out a great deal.
Stevie Johnson, when motivated, can be a No. 1 wide receiver in this offense as well. He is coming off three consecutive 1,000-yard receiving seasons. This doesn't even take into account the additions of Robert Woods and Marquise Goodwin in the draft or the existence of a solid tight end in the form of Scott Chandler.
While I am opposted to Manuel starting initially, I do think he can be a decent player as a rookie.
2013 Stat Projections: 62.5 completion percentage, 3,150 passing yards, 19 touchdowns and 13 interceptions
Geno Smith, New York Jets
Unfortunately for this West Virginia product, he didn't exactly live up to in-season draft hype. Long considered the consensus No. 1 quarterback in the 2013 NFL draft, Smith fell all the way to the Jets in the second round. One of the primary reasons for Smith's slide was a question mark about his character, something teams really do take notice of when it comes to a quarterback.
"Fortunately" for Smith, he's in a good situation to start out of the gate. I use quotes because this might not be the best thing for his continued progression as a quarterback in the NFL. He isn't prepared to take on New Jersey and the media circus that comes with it as a rookie. Even more importantly, Smith isn't a starter-caliber quarterback at this point.
He had three dominating seasons in Morgantown, throwing 97 touchdowns compared to 20 interceptions in his final three collegiate seasons. In addition, Smith improved in all of his major statistical categories from one season to the next at West Virginia. That's what you look for in a NFL prospect.
The issue here is that New York doesn't have the offense in place to help Smith succeed as a fantasy quarterback this season. Santonio Holmes is coming off a serious lisfranc injury and is getting up there in age. Stephen Hill struggled with both consistency and injuries as a rookie. In addition, 2012 breakout-star Jeremy Kerley has struggled during the offseason program. Heck, the entire Jets receiving group has.
While the Jets did make a solid trade by acquiring former New Orleans Saints running back Chris Ivory, there is no telling how he will handle regular running back duties. New York faces the real possibility of putting Smith in an unenviable position to succeed without much talent around him.
2013 Stat Projections: 62.1 completion percentage, 2,860 yards, 16 touchdowns and 12 interception.
Comparison
If both Manuel and Smith earn starting gigs out of camp, they will surprise skeptics. While nowhere near ready to be immediate-impact performers, both have the raw skill level to compete as rookies.
As it relates to standard redraft leagues, neither are options to be selected as even QB2 options. There are a ton of marginal veterans that would be better options in these types of fantasy leagues. First, you can't rely on them to be starters out of the gate. Second, their teams will be running watered-down, run-heavy offenses. The opportunity just won't be there.
In terms of dynasty leagues, both have late-round QB1 capability. They are projection picks that you will have to sit on your Taxi squads for a season or two. Again, this means that they won't be viable fantasy performers as rookies.
Considering that Manuel has better coaching on the offensive side of the ball and a lot more talent, the decision appears to be relatively easy here. In fact, Manuel should go a couple rounds before his rookie counterpart. His ceiling is pretty high for such a weak draft class.