In the wake of Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott's suspension, an immediate discussion formed around his status in fantasy football. Before the suspension, Elliott represented a consensus top-three fantasy selection that many fantasy participants hoped would lead them to a championship.
But a six-game ban changes things, especially when you account for Dallas bye in Week Seven, which would further postpone Elliott's return to the football field. Even while Elliott fights his suspension via an appeal, it seems increasingly likely that he will be unable to suit up for Dallas for a significant chunk of the fantasy season.
As a result, Elliott's average draft position took a hit. While many experts think the proper landing spot for Elliott now is the late-third or early-fourth round, a recent mock draft on FantasyPros simulator showed that Elliott's post-suspension value still makes him a top-15 pick. While that may seem high, it's an important exercise to experiment with him in that spot and find what kind of results come from it.
So that's what we have here. In a PPR scoring, 12-team mock draft, we'll take a look at how a post-suspension Elliott slide and his selection shakes out for a potential fantasy team and how it could work for fantasy owners.
1.09: A.J. Green, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
Always have to start the draft off right with an elite playmaker and Green fits the bill perfectly. While Green's 2016 season came to an abrupt end, it's easy to forget the numbers he put up before he went down for the season. In the nine games before he suffered the injury, Green averaged over 107 yards per game and recorded 10-plus targets in six of his nine games played.
This is not going to be a good team this season. Cincinnati's running game will struggle to get much going behind a significantly worse offensive line and the defense isn't strong enough to keep games low scoring, so there will be plenty of pass attempts in this offense and a plethora of targets headed Green's way. He can give you top-five numbers at his position and his production week-to-week will also be consistent and not reliant on one or two blow up games.
2.04: Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Dallas Cowboys
Multiple simulations put Elliott in the top sixteen picks, which led to the selection here. Obviously Elliott's ADP could fall further as the weeks play out, but for now this is the spot where he landed and that we'll operate off of.
It certainly feels early to take Elliott here. In the most probable scenario, we would be without him for the first seven weeks of the season and be entirely trusting in the rest of our draft picks to stay healthy and contribute so by the time week eight rolls around and we're just a few weeks shy of the fantasy playoffs, that we're in the thick of the playoff hunt.
If Elliott wins the appeal and comes back sooner than expected, it means we walked away with two top-10 selections and could receive elite fantasy production from a wide receiver and running back. That on its face seems very appealing, but again it's very dependent on how well the fantasy owner drafts.
3.09: Alshon Jeffery, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
4.04: Ty Montgomery, RB, Green Bay Packers
The wide receiver pairing of Green and Jeffery is something to get excited about. Green is a clear-cut WR1 and we've seen Jeffery put up that caliber of production at times, but health and quarterback play have got in the way. Now he finds himself in a new home and on a 'prove-it contract', one year to turn in some of the best numbers in his career and cash in next offseason.
It is a potential outcome. Following Jordan Matthews being dealt to the Buffalo Bills, Jeffery is a lock to see the heaviest share of targets in Philadelphia. He'll be in an offense with a young quarterback in Carson Wentz, who should rely heavily on Jeffery to make plays and move the ball down the field. So if he stays healthy, Jeffery could post outstanding numbers for a WR2 and pair extremely well with Green.
Montgomery is a gamble, but the intrigue of a starting running back on one of the best offenses in the NFL is certainly a compelling target. The 24-year-old shifted into a running back role last season with Green Bay and performed well with an outstanding 5.9 yards per carry on 77 rush attempts and three touchdowns.
The hype train picked up speed early in the 2017 NFL Draft when Green Bay passed on more and more running backs, but then they took Jamaal Williams in the fourth round and Aaron Jones in the fifth round, which added some doubt about Montgomery's workload in 2017.
But a dual-threat running back that can run routes and move out of the backfield just as easily as he can carry the rock after a hand off from Aaron Rodgers is something everyone wants, even Mike McCarthy mentioned how Montgomery's 'full-threat' ability made him a guy that you could easily get excited about.
But pass protection must be considered and with Williams overshadowing Montgomery in pass-protection drills, you can see a path where Montgomery loses some snaps to Williams and his fantasy appeal takes a hit. But in PPR scoring, Montgomery still fits in nicely as an RB2 that you can feel fairly confident about.
Lineup:
QB: Jameis Winston
Selected in the ninth round, Winston fits in well as a quarterback who could offer consistency as a top-eight fantasy quarterback and someone that can help push our fantasy offense into the postseason. He is also further proof that you can wait on quarterbacks and still find great production form the position. Quarterback remains a very deep spot in fantasy and when you can find multiple quarterbacks that can throw for 4,200-plus passing yards and reach 30-plus touchdowns, you're covered at a spot where you only invested a ninth-round selection or later.
RB: Elliott, Montgomery, C.J. Anderson, Darren McFadden
Elliott and Montgomery we previously covered, so the focus here is on Anderson and McFadden. In the case of Anderson, it's buying low on a running back that showed plenty of promise when healthy with the Denver Broncos and should have the opportunity to see a sizable workload once again.
While Denver added Jamaal Charles in the offseason, he isn't a lock to crack the 53-man roster out of camp and his odds are further hurt by his inability to contribute on special teams. Meanwhile, Devontae Booker fractured his wrist and will miss the entire preseason, putting him at a disadvantage behind Anderson. So the path should be clear for the 26-year-old to see 15-plus touches a game early in the season with Denver. He is just a year removed from consecutive seasons with 150-plus touches and averaged 4.7 yards per carry in those years. He can be an effective ball carrier in the early weeks and serve as our RB2.
McFadden is the obvious handcuff to Elliott and a security blanket while Elliott serves his suspension. If Alfred Morris outshines McFadden in the preseason, then you swap the two in the draft or free agency and take the favorite to be the Cowboys' starting running back for the first six games. While neither are starting-caliber running backs, they will be in an offense that heavily features the running game and boasts one of the best offensive lines in all of football. So you should be safe with RB2 production from one of them.
WR: Green, Jeffery, Martavis Bryant, Stefon Diggs, Kenny Britt, Josh Doctson
We're already secured two strong wide receivers in Green and Jeffery, it means we don't ever have to worry about getting less than needed production at either of the two wide receiver spots. It allows us to target some upside plays that could develop into top trading chips that allow us to land a running back upgrade at some point in the season. Bryant should be fully reinstate by the NFL soon and once he is cleared, his talents on the gridiron are unquestioned.
The 25-year-old showed plenty of big play ability in 2015 and quickly became Ben Roethlisberger's secondary target when Antonio Brown faced double coverage. Pittsburgh wants to balance the passing game and running game, so the opportunities will be there for Martavis. While a year away from football is some cause for concern, it allowed him time to further develop his route-running ability and that will only help his immense physical tools shine brighter. Bryant offers the upside to be a top-20 fantasy receiver and if that production comes, he is an elite flex play or could become our WR2 and allow for Jeffery to be traded for a running back.
Diggs will be Sam Bradford's top receiver this season and while Bradford isn't one of the premium quarterbacks in the game, he can be relied upon to get the ball in Diggs' hands. The second-year receiver shined for much of last season and finished the year with 84 receptions for 903 receiving yards, though just three touchdowns. After an offseason spent improving his ability to work deep, Diggs should turn in more big plays this season and eventually become our WR3/FLEX.
Britt offers our team depth at the position, but falls later in the draft off lesser name value. Cleveland will offer an improved offense for fantasy this season and rookie quarterback Deshone Kizer should have plenty of time to throw and find the veteran wide receiver. He helps balance out the late-round selection of Doctson, Washington's first-round pick last season, who is now healthy and set for a starting role in a pass-heavy offense.
Tight End: Jack Doyle and Austin Hooper
Here we have the combination of security and upside plays. We know Andrew Luck likes to involve the tight ends in the passing game and now that Doyle is the top tight end in Indianapolis, he should. If Doyle could finish as a top-14 tight end last season in fantasy when he split work with Dwayne Allen, there's no reason to think he can't emerge as a top-10 tight end this season who can give you a respectable share of receptions, yards and touchdowns.
Hooper is quickly becoming a favorite in Atlanta. He'll be in a Steve Sarkisian offense, where his role should grow substantially from last season. The second-year tight end should have an excellent opportunity to display his athleticism and skills as a receiver in Sarkisian's offense and should be open with much of the defensive attention given to Julio Jones#. While he can't be trusted consistently as a TE1, he makes for the upside and matchup play you want to pair with Doyle.
Conclusion
It's an immense risk and frankly, the upside isn't overwhelming at this spot. If Elliott's suspension is reduced to four games or if he misses the first seven weeks and then returns to help push us into the playoffs, the return on investment isn't superior to the other options.
The team is strong and perhaps you could feel more confident if you selected another running back in the mid-late rounds instead of Diggs or Britt. But even then, the running back spot just leaves too much to be desired early on in the season when Elliott is out. You're better off taking an option like DeMarco Murray, Jay Ajayi or Todd Gurley at the current ADP. While they all come with risk that clouds their status some as a potential RB1, they'll be on the field and see significant touches in the first six weeks of the season.
If you're drafting within the next week and Elliott is at the top of the board in the second round, pass on him. The investment you'll have made in him won't net you a strong enough return that will make up for his seven-week absence to start the season. Elliott's ADP should fall as the days and weeks go on, but he likely shouldn't be considered until the late-third or early-fourth round of the draft.