Drew Brees and Peyton Manning – 19 Pro Bowls between the two, 10 first-team All-Pro selections, nine AFC Offensive Player of the Year awards, and two Super Bowl Most Valuable Player awards. That’s about all that you need to know about two of the “elite” quarterbacks in the NFL, also elite when it comes to fantasy. Let’s peek into the fantasy realm and see who you should be drafting this season.
Peyton Manning, Denver Broncos
Manning was the No. 5 quarterback in fantasy football last season coming off major neck surgery that forced him to miss the entire 2011 season. 2012 showed that Manning could, in fact, bounce back, and there’s no reason that he shouldn’t take another step forward in 2013.
For starters, last season, Manning dealt with an aged, banged up Willis McGaheein the backfield, mixed with an inexperienced Ronnie Hillman as well as Knowshon Moreno, whose only strong suit is blocking. Maning still finished as the fifth scoring quarterback in fantasy football. Now, Manning adds second-round running back Montee Ball, who should support Manning both on the ground and through the air.
On top of Ball, Manning also added Wes Welker to his repertoire. Welker has over 110 catches in five of his last six seasons. While Welker won’t be able to sustain those numbers in an offense with weapons like Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker. However, Welker should add effectiveness in the middle of the field for the Broncos.
Manning also says his body feels better from last season, which is expected now that he’s another 12 months departed from surgery. Just another pro when looking at Manning’s 2013 season, which has few flaws. Expect Manning’s stats and overall performance to take an uptick from last season, which is hard to imagine, considering just how effective he was last season.
Projected 2013 Statistics: 69.2 completion percentage, 4,900 passing yards, 43 touchdowns, 10 interceptions
Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints
You couldn’t have asked much more from Brees as a fantasy owner in 2012. Brees was the top fantasy football scorer with 5,177 yards passing and 43 passing touchdowns-both league highs. There’s no reason can’t post the same stats in 2013 with the return of head coach Sean Payton.
Brees is the first quarterback to eclipse the 5,000 yards passing mark in back-to-back seasons and he’s led the leading in passing touchdowns in four of the past five years. However, he also throws the ball away a lot. His 16.6 interceptions average over the last five seasons is a league high over the same time frame (Tom Brady averages 9.3, Rodgers 9.0, Manning 14.0), according to ESPN. Of course, finding problems with Brees’ game is like a needle in a haystack – they’re hard to find.
Brees was still the top fantasy quarterback, and with Payton back to get the Saints offense back to its 2011 form, the possibilities are endless. The team wasn’t exactly incompetent without Payton, it just wasn’t in tip-top shape. For example, in 2011 (with Payton) the Saints boasted a 256.1 grade on Pro Football Focus – the top mark in the league in 2011, and the second best since Pro Football Focus started grading offenses in 2008. However, in 2012, that number drooped to 154.9, fourth best in the NFL in 2012. No slouch, but it wasn’t the Saints offense that we have grown to know and love.
There’s no reason that Brees can’t repeat his numbers from 2012, if not improve on them.
Projected 2013 Statistics: 71.0 completion percentage, 5,400 passing yards, 44 touchdowns, 16 interceptions
Comparison
You can’t go wrong with either guy in this case. They will both be Pro Bowlers come February – if they don’t lead their teams to the Super Bowl. I’m taking Brees in this case, in fact, believe it or not, I believe Brees and Aaron Rodgers are in a tier all on their. However, both should get you top five quarterback production in 2013 if you’re willing to take a quarterback as high as they typically go in drafts.