As we look ahead to the 2013 NFL season, there’s a number of quarterbacks looking for a fresh start with a new team. The two most prominent among this group being Alex Smith and Carson Palmer. Both have been around the league for quite some time now, and still have a lot to bring to their respective new teams. But who will be the better fantasy football option this season? Let’s find out.
Carson Palmer - Quarterback, Arizona Cardinals
After the Oakland Raiders gave up a king’s ransom to the Cincinnati Bengals in exchange for Palmer during the 2011 season (and also gave Palmer a king’s ransom in salary), Reggie McKenzie and company decided that Palmer’s price was too high to continue on with him under center. Palmer publicly refused to take a pay cut, Oakland ended up trading him to the Cardinals for almost nothing.
Palmer put up good numbers in 2012 for the Black and Silver, amassing 4,018 yards through the air, 22 touchdowns and an 85.3 (16th best) quarterback rating, while throwing a three-year low 14 interceptions. He finished the season with 224 fantasy points (good for 19th best among quarterbacks) and averaged 15 points per game. He was able to do this as part of an injury-riddled offense without much talent surrounding him.
At 34, Palmer is definitely on the downswing of his career, but if he can stay healthy, he has a year or two of high-level play left in the tank. Arizona did a great job of addressing the interior of their offensive line during the draft, and added some offensive weapons in Ryan Swope, Stepfan Taylor and Rashard Mendenhall, via the draft and free agency. Along with Larry Fitzgerald, Palmer will have options to spread the ball around, if 2012’s last-ranked offensive line can hold things together.
2013 Stat Projections: 3,800 passing yards, 20 touchdowns, 16 interceptions and a 83.2 quarterback rating.
Alex Smith - Quarterback, Kansas City Chiefs
The No. 1 overall pick in the 2005 NFL Draft, Smith has taken his fair share of criticism; and by the end of 2010, was written off as a bust by most experts. Then the San Francisco 49ers revamped their offense, adding a number of talented players on both side of the ball, and bringing in (then) new head coach Jim Harbaugh. Finally surrounded by talent and under the tutelage of a great coaching staff, Smith showed immense and immediate improvement, leading the 49ers to the NFC Championship game.
Headed into the 2012 season, Smith looked poised to finally reach the potential the 49ers saw in him nine years prior. Through the first eight games of the season, Smith put up impressive numbers, throwing for 1,659 yards, 12 touchdowns and five interceptions; with a 104.1 quarterback rating. But, we all know what happened next. Following a Week Nine bye, Smith went down with a concussion in Week 10 against the St. Louis Rams and would relinquish the starting quarterback role, permanently, to second-year player Colin Kaepernick.
I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again; In the right situation, surrounded by talent and with a good coaching staff, Smith is a good quarterback and team leader. Now teamed with Andy Reid in kansas City, Smith has the offensive line and weapons in Dwayne Bowe, Jamaal Charles, Dexter McCluster and rookie Travis Kelce (among others) to continue his successful upswing. At only 28 years old, Smith still has a number of years ahead of him to continue his recent success. Look for him to have a breakout year with the Chiefs in 2013.
2013 Stat Projections: 3,400 passing yards, 23 touchdowns, 6 interceptions and a 93.8 quarterback rating.
In Comparison
In redraft leagues, both Palmer and Smith represent solid QB2 options. If you subscribe to the Late Round QB draft strategy, one could argue that Smith will even be a fringe QB1 option, especially if you surround him with talented, high-level skills players. The difference here comes down to dynasty leagues, where given his age, Smith is the clear winner. Palmer will have a good 2013, but you don’t want to build your team around him when looking to the future.