Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers
Big Ben was just on the outside looking in as it related to being a starting quarterback in standard 12-team fantasy leagues back in 2011. His numbers seemed to get even better this past season as Roethlisberger put up 26 touchdowns compared to just eight interceptions in 13 games. Translated over the course of a full schedule, he would have been the 10th-ranked fantasy quarterback in '12, just ahead of Russell Wilson and Matthew Stafford.
Expect Roethlisberger to put up similar numbers next season. Two key components here will be whether the Steelers are able to upgrade a pedestrian offensive line and find a true starting running back. Big Ben needs to actually stay on the field in order to be a solid fantasy contributor. Though, it is important to note that his fantasy numbers (passing yards and touchdown passes) will increase without a solid run game on offense. As it is, Roethlisberger is a top of the line backup fantasy option.
Alex Smith, San Francisco 49ers
Prior to suffering a concussion against the St. Louis Rams in Week 10, Smith was averaging 15.5 fantasy points per outing. This would have put him smack dab in the middle of the QB1 conversation if he had played the entire season. In fact, he would have been ahead of Joe Flacco, Eli Manning and Philip Rivers in terms of fantasy production.
Overall, Smith has a 3.5-to-1 TD/INT ratio dating back to October of 2010. Those numbers indicate that he will be a solid QB2 option when all is said and done. Someone you can count on to start a game or two over the course of the season. The interesting dynamic here is where Smith will end up in '13. By now, we all know that he will not be returning to San Francisco after the emergence of Colin Kaepernick. If Smith goes to a team that already has a solid foundation on offense, Kansas City comes to mind first, he will put up solid numbers next season. Should he go to a team like the New York Jets, avoid this quarterback in the later rounds or on the waiver wire.
LeSean McCoy, Running Back, Philadelphia Eagles
2012 represented a down year for McCoy across the board. He averaged just 70 yards per game and 4.2 yards per rush after many concluded he was going to be one of the top three fantasy performers heading into the season. In fact, I had Shady as my No. 1 overall fantasy player entering the season. Obviously, that did not happen.
A poor offensive scheme by former head coach Andy Reid coupled with lingering injury concerns led McCoy to finish 21st among running backs in fantasy points. This came on the heels of McCoy finishing second behind Ray Rice in fantasy points during the '11 season. Philadelphia now transitions to a new scheme under former Oregon' head coach Chip Kelly, who loves to utilize his running backs in a spread offense. Considering how good McCoy is on tape, I see no reason to believe that he will continue to struggle this upcoming season. Look for top-five running back production, if healthy.
Maurice Jones-Drew, Running Back Jacksonville Jaguars
This past season was just not friendly to Jones-Drew. After a lengthy holdout that lasted into training camp, he suffered a broken foot and played in a total of six games. It's important to note that the UCLA product is just one season removed from leading the NFL in rushing and being a top-three fantasy running back.
At just 27, Jones-Drew seems to still have a lot left in the tank. For comparison's sake, Adrian Peterson has more touches in his career than Jones-Drew. That should tell you enough about where to value this stud running back moving forward. As is the case with every other player in this article, outside factors will dictate just how much production we will see from Jones-Drew in '13. He is going to need to report to training camp in shape, that's the first step. Second, Jacksonville will have to find a solid passing game so that opposing defenses aren't putting eight or nine in the box. Finally, the Jaguars have to upgrade along the offensive line if it expects Jones-Drew to return to '11 form.
Percy Harvin, Wide Receiver, Minnesota Vikings
Prior to his injury, Harvin was among the most productive fantasy wide receivers in the NFL. He had tallied over 750 total yards and four touchdowns in just eight starts. In addition, Harvin was averaging over 11 fantasy points per game. All this with a pedestrian quarterback under center in the form of Christian Ponder and a run-first offense behind NFL MVP Adrian Peterson. If Harvin would have been able to get all 16 games in, something he has done just once in his four-year NFL career, he would have been right behind Roddy White and ahead of both Wes Welker and Victor Cruz in terms of fantasy production.
Another big aspect of Harvin's possible fantasy output next season is the minor detail of where he will actually be playing. Previous reports indicated that the Vikings will trade their No. 1 wide receiver prior to the draft in April. While the organization has attempted to backtrack from that statement, it is reasonable to assume he will be calling another city home in '13. One team that consistently comes up in rumors is the San Francisco 49ers, who are definitely in the market for another wide receiver opposite Michael Crabtree. If Harvin were to go to a situation like that, there is no question he could put up WR1 numbers when healthy. Just imagine him having Colin Kaepernick to fling the ball his way. That's a scary proposition for opposing defense.
Vincent Brown, Wide Receiver, San Diego Chargers
I had Brown as one of the most underrated fantasy players heading into the season. A serious injury in August forced the second-year receiver from San Diego State out for the entire regular season. This came on the heels of him having a solid '11 rookie campaign that saw him put up over 17 yards a reception. Brown was destined to take on a larger role with the departure of Vincent Jackson to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in free agency.
Robert Meachem and Eddie Royal really didn't do what San Diego expected as the tandem tasked with replacing Jackson on the outside.
Look for Brown to get another shot to be a huge part of the Chargers' offense moving forward. He should be an under-the-radar FLEX performer, if healthy.