10. Rob Gronkowski, Tight End, New England Patriots
Gronkowski, who is on the mend from multiple surgeries over the past couple of seasons, appears to be ready to start Week 1. Whether he will return in top form is the burning question. Current mock drafting trends show Gronkowski being selected as the third tight end choice, meaning those who draft him expect prime fantasy numbers.
Take note that Gronkowski’s production was down during the seven games he played in 2013 versus his 2012 stats. Last year had Gronkowski averaging just 11.9 fantasy points per game. Tom Brady doesn’t seem quite the same either, which also impacts Gronkowski’s fantasy potential. I say draft the injury-prone Gronkowski with caution in 2014, as bust potential is a reality.
9. Zac Stacy, Running Back, St. Louis Rams
Stacy dazzled fantasy owners in his 2013 rookie season when he established his role as the lead running back for the Rams. Despite solid fantasy production, Stacy’s yards per average on the 973 yards he rushed only amounted 3.9 per carry.
Perhaps feeling a bit hedgy about Stacy’s production for 2014, the team drafted rookie running back, Tre Mason for added security. Mason’s quickness and pass-catching ability may have him eating into some of Stacy’s carries. If any type of time-sharing plan takes place in 2014, Stacy’s fantasy value will decline, diminishing him from the RB1 status he attained last season.
8. Knowshon Moreno, Running Back, Miami Dolphins
Moreno was a fantasy gem to own in 2013, finishing the season as the fifth-highest ranking running back. He was a touchdown machine, with a total of 13, and really could do no wrong while with the Denver Broncos.
Enter Moreno as a Dolphin in 2014, already hobbled and recovering from a knee surgery, and his appeal as a fantasy option goes from filet mignon to a burnt hamburger. Moreno now has younger, fellow running backs Lamar Miller and Daniel Thomas to compete with, in addition to rehabbing his knee. Do not even attempt to draft Moreno expecting the superb fantasy numbers he rewarded last year as for 2014, he has bust written all over him.
7. Giovani Bernard, Running Back, Cincinnati Bengals
Bernard had a solid rookie year in 2013, and will carry his talented playmaking skills into 2014. However, whether Bernard will get even more opportunity to impress his future fantasy owners remains questionable. The team still has veteran running back, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, who was often inserted last year on late downs, scoring the touchdowns that Bernard owners’ wanted. Next, there is newly drafted rookie Jeremy Hill who the Bengals felt worthy of a second-round draft pick. Bernard looks to enter into an even more crowded playing field in 2014, so be forewarned that he potentially could see a decrease in fantasy production this season.
6. Doug Martin, Running Back, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Martin suffered an unfortunate, season-ending shoulder injury in Week 6 last year, so he was an automatic bust to those who drafted him as their No. 1 pick. Present company included. However, for the games Martin did play last year, his level of production was nowhere near that of his stellar rookie season. With only one rushing touchdown and an average of just 3.6 yards per carry, in six games, Martin was on pace to finish the season, had he not been injured, as a mere flex fantasy player.
2014 has Martin healthy and ready to start for the Buccaneers, however the team wants to rotate the running backs with a blend of Bobby Rainey and Mike James. With that said, Martin could once again disappoint those who draft him with RB1 expectations.
5. Andre Johnson, Wide Receiver, Houston Texans
Johnson at 32 years old, enters his 12th season disgruntled, and once again facing a sketchy quarterback situation as Ryan Fitzpatrick settles in as his first year with the Texans. This is all provided that Johnson even remains with the Texans, as he has yet to commit to playing in Week 1. With Johnson’s current state of mind and talks about a potential trade looming overhead, he looks to be somewhat of a fantasy gamble at this point in time.
Should Johnson resume playing with his team, WR1 fantasy points from him could be a stretch in 2014 now that Arian Foster appears to be in fine health and second-year DeAndre Hopkins is improving. With the presence of other big playmakers and Johnson’s attitude as a whole, he doesn’t offer much upside as a fantasy star.
4. Marques Colston, Wide Receiver, New Orleans Saints
Colston didn’t measure up last season, and all signs point towards him being a bust once again in 2014. 2013 had Colston’s receiving yards falling short of the 1,000 mark for the first time in five years. To top that off, he only managed five touchdown scores, and ranked 27th among his fellow wide receivers.
The Saints are a pass-happy team, and Drew Brees should handily throw close to 5,000 yards. However, too many capable hands such as Jimmy Graham, Kenny Stills and new rookie Brandin Cooks as targets could leave Colston struggling to reward even flex fantasy points in 2014. Technically, Colton is the teams’ No. 1 wide receiver, but he definitely should not be drafted as such when it comes to your fantasy football team.
3. Hakeem Nicks, Wide Receiver, Indianapolis Colts
Just because Nicks is with a brand new team, and can brag that he has Andrew Luck as his quarterback, don’t be fooled into drafting him with too high of expectations 2014. He was a fantasy drafter’s nightmare last year with more ball drops than his zero touchdowns.
Ahead of Nicks on the Colts’ receiving roster are Reggie Wayne and T.Y. Hilton, who will be getting a lot of Luck’s attention. The Colts also have two big red zone threats in tight ends Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen. Nicks will first have to earn Luck’s trust, then compete with a multitude of other targets, so his fantasy outlook for the 2014 season looks quite grim at this point in time.
2. Nick Foles, Quarterback, Philadelphia Eagles
Keep expectation for Foles as your fantasy quarterback tempered for 2014. While he had quite an amazing season in 2013 when taking over as the teams’ starter, he faces a major difference in receiving options this season.
Foles will have a rusty Jeremy Maclin returning from missing the entire 2013 season due to injury. He will now also play without his No. 1 wide receiving target, DeSean Jackson, who averaged 83.3 yards per game on the 82 catches passed by Foles. While Riley Cooper remains a staple for Foles, he is no Jackson, and averaged just 52.2 yards per game on 47 catches. Without Jackson’s top-notch receiving skills, Foles is bound to throw more interceptions and complete less passes, decreasing his fantasy value for 2014.
1. Cam Newton, Quarterback, Carolina Panthers
Can Newton retain his third-ranking quarterback status again in 2014 or will he bust? Thankfully, Newton has his trusted tight end, Greg Olsen still in town, because he has lost nearly everyone else, including left tackle Jordan Gross who retired after 11 seasons.
2014 offers Newton the addition of two crusty, over 30 wide receivers, Jason Avant and Jerricho Cotchery. With youth on his side is rookie Kelvin Benjamin, but the youth here will need some time to mature just a bit before he can provide true assistance to Newton.
Luckily for those who draft Newton, they can bank on his mobility and rush touchdowns for fantasy points, but the passing yards will suffer, causing his fantasy value to decline in 2014. Overall, Newton will be challenged to reward those who draft him QB1 fantasy points.