Fantasy Football: Projecting Frank Gore's Decline

By Vincent Frank on Monday, March 31st 2014
Fantasy Football: Projecting Frank Gore's Decline

Frank Gore has been one of the most consistent running backs in the NFL during his now lengthy career with the San Francisco 49ers. The veteran running back hasn't finished any lower than 13th among running backs in fantasy points in any of the last three seasons. He hasn't been a sexy fantasy option by any means, but continues to put up the necessary numbers to make an impact. That's going to change in 2014. Here's why...

Gore turns 31 in May. Outside of Fred Jackson's stunning fantasy campaign this past season, the last running back 31 or older to finish in the top 15 in scoring in a single season was Mike Anderson with the Denver Broncos back in 2005. Yes folks, that's nearly a decade ago. 

In addition to that dubious sign, Gore's previous workload suggests that a major drop in production is coming at some point soon. He's touched the ball 2,518 times during his nine-year NFL career. Looking at how other Hall of Fame caliber running backs have performed after hitting 2,500 career touches, this isn't a good sign for the Pro Bowler. 

 

After 2,500 Career Touches (AVG)
Player Team Yards TD
LaDainian Tomlinson Chargers/Jets 785.5 7.5
Edgerrin James Colts/Cardinals/Seahawks 620.3 3.3
Marshall Faulk Colts/Rams 709.3 5.3
Jamal Lewis Ravens/Browns 751.0 2.0
Ricky Williams Saints/Dolphins/Ravens 558.5 2.0
Fred Taylor Jaguars/Patriots 212.0 2.0

 

This doesn't even take into account the fact that Shaun Alexander and Clinton Portis, among others, didn't even make it to 2,500 total touches before bombing out in the NFL. 

In each of these cases, the players mentioned about hit a wall. That wall came crumbling down on top of them in an instant without previous indications that they were on the verge of slowing down. 

Among active players with 2,500-plus career touches, it doesn't get much better. 

Steven Jackson hit that total back in 2011. In the two seasons that have followed, Jackson is averaging under 800 rushing yards and five touchdowns. 

Adrian Peterson and Willis McGahee are also close to hitting this telling number. As to where Peterson is still the top running back in the game, his production took a major step back in 2014. The future Hall of Famer put up career lows in rushing yards and touchdowns for a full season. For his part, McGahee is likely done with football after putting up an average of 2.7 yards per rush for the Cleveland Browns in 2013. 

Then you have a little thing called competition and total touches. Two aspects of the game that fantasy football owners tend to ignore at times. 

San Francisco added Marcus Lattimore to the mix in the fourth round of the 2013 NFL draft. The young running back was red-shirted as a rookie, but appears to be ready to go. He's considered the heir-apparent to Gore. Lattimore also would have been a top-20 pick in the draft last season if he didn't tear his ACL during his final game at South Carolina. The talent is most definitely there for him to make an impact in 2014. 

Kendall Hunter will be returning to the 49ers for a fourth season. He averaged six touches per game in 2013 and is averaging 5.1 yards per touch in his short NFL career. Needless to say, the 49ers have used him to help keep Gore fresh. That's not going to change this upcoming season. Add Lattimore to the mix and you have some issues as it relates to touches for Gore. 

While Gore did finish as the 13th-ranked fantasy running back last season, he put up just a 56 percent consistency ranking according to our advanced metrics. That means he failed to put up either 100-plus rushing yards or a touchdown in seven of his outings last season. 

In terms of touches, Gore ranked eighth in the NFL last season. Couple that with him finishing 13th in fantasy points and a down tick in touches means a larger regression in terms of production than the norm. 

These aren't good signs for Gore moving forward. 

As to where we might have relied on Gore to be a top-tier RB2 in standard redraft leagues in the past, these indicators seems to suggest that he's likely not going to produce much more than a solid FLEX option in 2RB leagues. 

Stay In Touch

Scores

No NFL games.
No NFL games.
No NFL games.
NFLFantasy
NFLFantasy
NFLFantasy
NFLFantasy
NFLFantasy
NFLFantasy