Because of position scarcity, running backs are the most valued players in fantasy football. Get one of the top five guys in the first round of the draft, and your fantasy team is set to have an advantage week-to-week.
After that first tier, it’s tough to find backs that are locks to produce in a given season, especially with the nature of injuries. When finding that No. 2 running back on a fantasy, schedule can play in role in finding the right round and pick to take someone.
These are three running backs that are facing tough schedules in 2014, which could make their path to fantasy superiority difficult.
Ben Tate, Cleveland Browns
Every fantasy owner should know that Tate will probably be injured at some point in the season. He has never appeared in all 16 games in his three seasons will the Houston Texans, most recently suffering bruised ribs last season that caused him to slow down toward the end of the season and outright miss two games.
This season, staying healthy and being productive will be tough for Tate. In the AFC North, he’ll face the Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens twice this year, who ranked in the top 10 last season in fewest fantasy points allowed to running backs. The Bengals gave up the third-fewest points per game with just 13.7.
Outside of the division, he’ll face the Carolina Panthers in a tough three final games of the season, when he’ll face Cincy, Carolina and Baltimore. The New Orleans Saints also show up in Week 3, who allowed just 15.5 fantasy points per game last year to running backs. Tate has a lot of upside this season because the Browns will likely look to run if Josh Gordon misses time, but his schedule isn’t favorable early on and at the end of the season.
Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers
Gore seems to be bucking the trend of backs slowing down after 30, but if there’s a year for decline, this is it. Everyone knows how tough the defenses in the NFC West are, and Gore will face the Seahawks, Rams and Cardinals twice each. Arizona was the best defense last season against running backs, Seattle was second and the Rams should be much better at stopping the run this season with their front seven and the addition of Aaron Donald.
Outside of the division, Gore takes on the revamped defensive line in Chicago in Week 2, the strong linebackers in Kansas City in Week 5 and in Week 10 he plays the Saints. In the middle of the season, Gore will play the Rams and Saints in three of his four games between Weeks 6 and 10 (the 49ers get a bye in Week 8).
Then, at the end of the season, which is fantasy playoff time, Gore faces the Seahawks twice in three weeks (Weeks 13 and 15) and the Cardinals to close out this season. He was successful as a fantasy back in that division last season, but potential owners have to be concerned at the existing wear on Gore and the physical defenses he’ll be playing all year.
Doug Martin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Like Gore and Tate, Martin’s schedule will be difficult because of his division. Four of his games are against two of the eight best defenses against running backs last season (Carolina and New Orleans). He also has to take on Tate’s schedule partially as well, since the Bucs play the AFC North this season.
Martin and the Bucs will face the Ravens right before their bye week, and the Bengals toward the end of the season. Martin also drew the Detroit Lions, who actually were sixth in the league last year in fantasy points allowed to running backs with 15 points allowed per game.
Coming off a season lost to injury, Martin will look to get back to a great rookie campaign, but the crushing Panthers and Saints defense, plus the Bengals and Ravens, will slow Martin down.