Nowhere is the difference between real NFL and fantasy football more clear than when one is comparing wins and losses. Strength of schedule is a massive boon or tremendous bummer to NFL teams, as a team’s given opponents dictate the likelihood of a playoff berth.
More important than the strength of schedule as a whole are the six games each team plays in division. Rivalries run deep, and teams get the best out of their players in these high-pressure situations. Divisions like the NFC West, where all four teams could be construed as playoff contenders, make drafting players in those situations like searching spending a weekend with your in-laws: stressful, likely not beneficial for personal happiness, and a downright inconvenience.
Though the NFC West was the best division in football in 2013, the toughness of each team’s schedule did not necessarily affect fantasy production. Last season the Panthers, Saints, Rams, Lions, Ravens, Packers, Cardinals, 49ers, and Dolphins all faced opponents with winning percentages at .520 or above, but how did their players fare in fantasy? Carolina’s Cam Newton, Detroit’s Matthew Stafford, New Orleans’ Drew Brees and San Francisco’s Colin Kaepernick all ranked in the top 10 in fantasy points scored, though they are all quarterback so this was bit skewed.
Outside of the gunslingers on these unlucky franchises, the next highest scoring player was Calvin Johnson who was third in points amongst receivers. Green Bay’s Eddie Lacy was in the mix as well, placing sixth amongst rushers in his rookie season. In fact only 14 of the top 50 point-scorers from 2013 came from teams in the top 10 of difficulty of schedule. Adding more fuel to this fire is that of the 14 players in the top 50, seven of them were quarterbacks.
Perhaps having a team with a more difficult schedule can result in fantasy fortune. By playing teams with better offenses, the player on your squad will have more chances to score himself, especially if that player is a receiver or quarterback. Therefore, you can see a direct correlation between teams that pass the ball more due to their lack of defense or quality of opponent, and a rise in fantasy points. The same may not be said for running backs.
Of those same nine teams, only Detroit’s Reggie Bush and the aforementioned Lacy ranked in the top 50 points scored. The next closest scorer was San Francisco’s Frank Gore at 14th amongst rushers followed by St. Louis’s Zac Stacy at 18th in the same category.
Therefore, you see yet another correlation: running backs playing against teams’ with above-average strength of schedule score less than those who play opponents they can dominate in time and quality of possession. Drafting running backs in the NFC West could prove harmful to one’s fantasy team, just as drafting wide receivers or quarterbacks would be a successful operation according to this model of thinking.
At the end of the day, it is drafting the best players based on value that matters, not their opponents. However, it never hurts to employ a strategy or metric that others are unaware of. There is a fine line between overthinking and preparing the necessary degree. So save some time, and your hair, and simply draft the best player available in every round regardless of division. Sounds easy right?