Fantasy Football Slant: Eight-Most Over-Valued Plays for Week 5

By Matt Johnson on Friday, October 9th 2015
Fantasy Football Slant: Eight-Most Over-Valued Plays for Week 5

The most important thing when putting a lineup together in DFS is finding value plays and matchups that will drive you to the promise land. But you also have to recognize the other side of the coin, looking at prominent players who are talked about a lot, but should be avoided that week.

Here we take a look at the Week 5 slate, finding the palyers who are being over-valued in rankings, but more importantly are vastly overpriced . But it doesn't stop there, we'll also show you an alternate play on FanDuel who offers excellent value and will bring a better return for your investment. 

Now let's examine the most over-valued players for Week 5's slate of games on Sunday and Monday.

 

Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks @ Cincinnati Bengals, ($8,200)

Alternate: Sam Bradford, Philadelphia Eagles vs. New Orleans Saints, ($7,500)

Wilson is not in an ideal situation, it really makes playing him a roll of the dice for fantasy owners on most weeks. But you can't start him this week in DFS and it's not even that wise to play him in season-long leagues. Seattle has allowed 18 sacks through four games this season and that number would be a lot higher if Wilson wasn't a smart, athletic quarterback who can escape pressure. 

Now Seattle's offensive line will face off against a Bengals' front-seven with 11 sacks this season, the sixth-most in the NFL. Even if Wilson had an offensive coordinator who knew how to use Jimmy Graham and Seattle had Marshawn Lynch available, this is a tough play. With both of those thrown out the window, just avoid Wilson this week.

 

Peyton Manning, Denver Broncos @ Oakland Raiders, ($8,200)

Alternate: Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, ($6,400)

While Manning might be facing a Raiders' defense that has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season, it still might be best to look at other options. Manning still has not looked sharp as of late with wobbly, weak passes.

Oakland has the front-seven to generate some pressure on Manning to force him off his mark. Their secondary is suspect enough that some Broncos' receivers and tight ends can put up nice numbers, but that could still mean a 280-yard, two-touchdown game from Manning. In that case, why not just save yourself $2,000 and start Winston.

 

Devonta Freeman, Atlanta Falcons vs. Washington, ($7,600)

Alternate: Todd Gurley, St. Louis Rams @ Green Bay Packers, ($6,700)

Freeman has been on an unbelievable run the past two games, putting up 75.2 FanDuel points combined versus the Dallas Cowboys and Houston Texans. But now his price has sky rocketed, Tevin Coleman has returned and frankly, this isn't a very good matchup.

Washington's defense has surprisingly allowed the fewest-points allowed to running backs through four games. Now part of that is because opponents are just ripping their secondary apart, but Washington's front-seven has just been very stout versus the run. After Julio Jones quiet game this week and Leonard Hankerson's chance for a revenge game, the Falcons should pass like crazy against Washington and rely less on Freeman.

 

Justin Forsett, Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns, ($7,200)

Alternate: Chris Thompson, Washington @ Atlanta Falcons, ($5,100)

Forsett is a bit like Manning with the favorable matchup but opting to stay away. While the Browns have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to running backs this season, Baltimore's situation at receiver allows Cleveland to focus almost all their efforts on stacking the run.

Cleveland can bring down a safety and use an eight-man box to try and take away Forsett. Baltimore is without Steve Smith and tight end Crockett Gillmore, putting all the pressure on Joe Flacco to try and make a weak supporting cast show some promise. Given some of the Ravens struggles running the ball this season, Forsett seems like a player you can avoid heavy shares of this week.

 

Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh Steelers @ San Diego Chargers, ($8,600)

Alternates: Leonard Hankerson, Atlanta Falcons vs. Washington, ($6,000)

Brown is one of the best receivers in the game, but Michael Vick is currently throwing him the football and faces a tough Chargers' secondary on Monday Night Football. It's hard to turn away from Brown but in DFS if you are putting together a QB-WR stack or want a high-priced RB, there are better options.

San Diego has allowed the third-fewest fantasy points points to wide receivers on the season and it's not as if the tight windows they will present are something Vick will be able to needle the ball through. Plus, if Pittsburgh wants to win this game, the best way to do it is running at the heart of a Chargers' defense that has allowed the third-most fantasy points to running backs this season. Save $2,600 and put Hankerson in your lineup, that savings difference could help you go from Doug Martin or LeGarrette Blount to Le'Veon Bell.

 

Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions vs. Arizona Cardinals, ($8,100)

Alternate: Allen Hurns, Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers, ($6,100)

Remember the days when Johnson wouldn't just rip apart secondaries with his size and strength, but thrown in incredible speed and explosiveness for good measure. Lower-body injuries have eaten into the ability Johnson once had and he can no longer separate from corners like he used to.

Facing Patrick Peterson, this matchup might be much closer than it used to, especially with Peterson having a bounce back season. Detroit's focus in this game should be establishing more of a running game, something they've been unable to do through the first quarter mark. Arizona has also been susceptible to problems with the screen pass and quick passes, which is good news for Ameer Abdullah and Golden Tate. There just isn't enough any reason to pay $8,000-plus for "Megatron".

 

Jimmy Graham, Seattle Seahawks @ Cincinnati Bengals, ($6,600)

Alternate: Charles Clay, Buffalo Bills @ Tennessee Titans, ($5,700)

We can't keep doing this people. Fantasy owners get a little bit excited over what looks like the Seahawks finally learning how to use Graham> Then the next week it becomes apparent they have no idea how to use his skill set properly. Even if they could, the offensive line doesn't give Wilson enough time to throw to Graham.

It really shouldn't even matter that the Bengals have allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points to tight ends this season, because even if they struggled covering tight ends, it wouldn't really matter. Sure, there will be a week here or there where Graham puts up 80 yards and a touchdown, but he has to be avoided until there is consistent production in this offense.

 

Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Chicago Bears, ($6,500)

Alternate: Owen Daniels, Denver Broncos @ Oakland Raiders, ($4,900)

Kelce can be the second-best tight end in fantasy football, but that will take the Kansas City Chiefs discovering how to use him and getting him the football consistently. Sure, maybe the targets are increasing, but they are sporadic, there will be long stretches where Kelce isn't targeted.

Andy Reid and Alex Smith have an offense going on that doesn't put their playmakers in the best position to succeed. Kelce is an athletic freak in a similar mold to Rob Gronkowski, but he still is rarely trusted in contested situations or allowed to make plays when there is tight coverage. Sure the upside is enormous, but the probability of that big game happening is low in Kansas City.

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