With less than a month to conduct fantasy football drafts prior to the start of the regular season in September, it's getting to crunch time. Most re-draft leagues do tend to hold off until more transpires during the preseason, which gives owners a chance to check in on some first-year players before draft day.
Here's a look at the most impactful first-year fantasy performers and where they currently stand in terms of average draft position (ADP).
Quarterbacks
Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (ADP: 134)
The unquestioned starter in Tampa, Winston will get his first crack at live-game action Saturday against the Minnesota Vikings. Despite some turnovers in camp, reports indicate that Winston is being just as aggressive with the Buccaneers as he was at Florida State. That could get him in some trouble at this level, but it's nice to see that he's not holding back in his first camp. The last thing we want to see from a rookie quarterback is an attempt to become something he isn't.
Winston has the necessary weapons to have a solid rookie season. Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson will act as huge receiving threats on the outside. Meanwhile of a combination of running backs that includes Doug Martin, Charles Sims and Bobby Rainey should help provide balance on offense.
The first year quarterback's current ADP has him as the 18th quarterback off the board, behind Colin Kaepernick and right ahead of Sam Bradford. As a QB2 option heading into his rookie campaign, Winston provides a ton of upside. This is magnified by one of the easiest schedules in football—a fact that should allow him to tally solid numbers on a consistent basis. If you are going late-round quarterback, maybe nab Winston as a high-upside QB2 to play matchups with. That would be an ideal scenario.
Marcus Mariota, Tennessee Titans (ADP: 151)
Mariota is going about a round after Winston, and is nowhere near as safe of a bet this season. More than simply not being near Winston in terms of pro readiness, the reigning Heisman winner doesn't have the supporting cast that his counterpart in Tampa Bay possesses. The likes of Bishop Sankey and David Cobb really aren't going to scare anyone in the backfield. In addition to this, Justin Hunter and Kendall Wright head an inconsistent and unproven wide receiver group.
Though, it must be noted that Mariota has looked darn good in camp thus far. Whether his lack of interceptions and more accurate tendencies continue in real game action is a completely different story. The one thing we are going to want to see from Mariota during the preseason is a command of the pocket—something that dogged him in the lead up to the draft. If he displays improved awareness there and continues to perform at a high level in other categories, Mariota may very well be worth a look as a bottom-end QB2 option. Unlike Winston, we are likely going to want to see Mariota play a couple preseason games against opposing team's starting defenses to really gauge where he's going to be at from a fantasy perspective.
Currently a nearly undraftable commodity in terms of his ADP, Mariota has a chance to act as a solid bargain-bin option at the end of the draft. He's the type of QB2 option you take a chance on when you have added a top-end QB2 early in the draft. He's not someone you play matchups with.
Running Backs
Melvin Gordon, San Diego Chargers (ADP: 33)
Gordon's ADP has him as a late second-round pick right now. In what could be a cautionary tale for those selecting the rookie running back near that slot, the likes of Mark Ingram, Frank Gore, Lamar Miller and Carlos Hyde are all going below him right now. Gordon may provide more upside than those four running backs, but each of them have had some level of NFL success in the past. It's likely you are looking to pick up your RB2 in the third round, which might afford you the ability to weigh the risks and go with the reward.
Then you have the aforementioned concerns over pass protection. San Diego isn't going to put Philip Rivers in a situation to be left out to dry by throwing Gordon out there in passing downs unless the latter improves a great deal in this category. It's something to focus on during the preseason. After all, three of the four running backs listed above are going to be of the three-down variety, enabling them more opportutinies to put up fantasy points.
Todd Gurley, St. Louis Rams (ADP: 49)
Gurley was by far the most-talented running back of the 2015 draft class. The issue here is tha the suffered a torn ACL last season at Georgia, leading to concerns that he won't make much of an impact as a rookie. Despite this, St. Louis made him a top-10 pick back in May, which is an indication the team plans on him being an impact performer.
Surprisingly, Gurley was not placed on the active physically unable to perform (PUP) list when camp started earlier this month. That in and of itself is a sign that the Rams expect the rookie to be on the field early in the season. Though, Rams head coach Jeff Fisher did have some interesting words to say about how Gurley is being brought along this summer:
"This is going to be a process," Fisher said last week. "It’s not going to be a day to day thing. We are looking at this long term process right now. By that when I say long term, I’m talking about let’s just go week to week and go through the preseason and we’ll see where we are when the season starts."
It sure looks like the Rams are preparing to play Gurley early in the year, but he's not going to be the workhorse back they envisioned. Instead, the team is going to ease him into that role with Tre Mason taking some early-season reps. With an ADP at the top of the fifth round, Gurley might be worth a risk as your third running back. You could slot someone else into the FLEX position until he's ready to take on a heavier load in the Rams offense, at which point you would then have three potential top-20 running backs moving forward on the season.
T.J. Yeldon, Jacksonville Jaguars (ADP: 61)
Speaking of a cautionary tale. Yeldon is actually sharing first-team reps with Denard Robinson in camp right now. That has to be of utmost concern to anyone who is relying on him to make any sort of early-season fantasy production. His current ADP near the bottom of the fifth round magnifies this a bit futher.
Most experts believe Jacksonville overdrafted Yeldon when it selected him at the top of the second round. He didn't stand out as one of the top-10 running backs in the draft, at least on tape. Going off production, Yeldon simply gets it done. Now that the NFL draft process has concluded, all we have to go off of is how Yeldon performs in camp and during preseason games. He's going to be given an ample opportunity to prove he's worthy of the starting job. Unlike Gordon, it does appear that Yeldon is performing at an extremely high clip when it comes to pass protection. That's huge in front of young signal caller Blake Bortles.
There really aren't any more attractive options on a talent-stricken Jaguars roster. If Yeldon earns the starting gig, he will see enough touches to make an impact. Though, one has to wonder why his current ADP is higher than that of C.J. Spiller, Rashad Jennings and Giovani Bernard.
Tevin Coleman, Atlanta Falcons (ADP: 77)
If it weren't for Freeman also going down with a hamstring injury, Coleman would be on our all-avoid team. A rookie running back needs reps in order to refine his game and make the transition to the NFL. Missing out on training camp reps is huge. That's only magnified in the Falcons' offense, which will place a big emphasis on pass protection in front of Matt Ryan. Not only is Coleman going to miss important practice time, he's likely out for the team's first two preseason games. That's experience that can't be made up moving forward.
Considered by some an under-the-radar RB2 option, this Indiana product probably shouldn't be relied on as much more than a bench option at this point. There's nothing out there to justify picking him up in the seventh round, especially with the likes of Isaiah Crowell and Doug Martin going below him in terms of ADP.
Ameer Abdullah, Detroit Lions (ADP: 89)
On the opposite end of the spectrum, Abdullah has been dazzling the Lions during his first camp with the team.
“We can’t even tackle that guy," Lions defensive coordinator Teryl Austin said about the rookie running back. “We can’t even touch him. He’s like grasping at air.”
"After Calvin Johnson, who makes at least one amazing catch per practice, Abdullah has been the most eye-popping player in the first week of training camp and it isn’t particularly close," Dave Birkett of the Detriot Free Press chimed in.
What makes Abdullah's situation so unique is that he's not necessarily facing any competition for touches in camp. Joique Bell remains sidelined after undergoing off-season knee and Achilles surgery. There's no timetable for his return. And while Abdullah held his own in pass protection, third-year running back Theo Riddick has struggled a great deal.
There were initial hesitations about Abdullah's ability to handle a huge role in a NFL offense. At 5-foot-9 and under 200 pounds, those concerns were compounded in the lead up to the draft. Based off what we're hearing from Lions' camp, this shouldn't really be much of a concern.
There's never been any question about Abdullah's ability to use his freakish athleticism as a dominating force on the football field. If he's holding up in camp and performing well in other categories, it's a great sign for his fantasy potential in the Lions' fast-paced offense. With an ADP that currently makes him an eighth-round pick, Abdullah could easily be one of the biggest steals around.
Wide Receivers
Amari Cooper, Oakland Raiders (ADP: 52)
By all accounts, Cooper has been a dominating force in camp thus far. We've seen him absolutely destroy Oakland's band of below-average defensive backs on a consistent basis in Napa over the past week-plus. We have also heard reports from Raiders camp that tells us a story of a rookie that might break out big time in 2015.
"He (Cooper) is ridiculous in and out of his breaks," second-year quarterback Derek Carr said, via 95.7 the Game. "His style of play is perfect for this league. He's good at making fast-twitch movements. I think the sky’s the limit for him."
Unlike other receivers listed below him, Cooper's making a seamless transition from the college ranks to the professional level. He's doing so with absolutely nothing in the way of him starting for the Raiders when Week 1 comes calling. From the looks of it, Cooper has also gelled extremely well with Carr, which is an indication that he should be able to make an immediate impact. An ADP in the fifth round for a rookie receiver is scary as hell, but Cooper will receive the necessary targets to make him well worth it in the eyes of those who take that chance in the coming weeks.
Kevin White, Chicago Bears (ADP: 81)
If that report from Ian Rapoport wasn't enough to scare you, other reports indicate that Chicago will take a cautious approach with the rookie first-round pick. With Alshon Jeffery slated to get a ton of targets and Matt Forte leading running backs in that category last season, White's fantasy potential is nearing levels one couldn't have imagined just a few short weeks ago. This is only magnified by the positive reports from Bears camp surrounding veteran free-agent signing Eddie Royal, who already has a built-in relationship with Jay Cutler dating back to their days with the Denver Broncos.
Now that's the biggest concern here. If White doesn't get any preseason reps, there's no reason to believe he's going to be able to make an impact out of the gate when the regular season comes calling. With an ADP at the end of the seventh round, this rookie is ahead of the likes of Roddy White, Steve Smith and Larry Fitzgerald. That's an absolute joke.
Nelson Agholor, Philadelphia Eagles (ADP: 91)
Agholor might be the most unassuming rookie receiver of this bunch. He's in a perfect situation to make a huge impact with a fast-paced Eagles offense that is void of any starter-caliber receivers outside of fellow youngster Jordan Matthews. By pure volume of targets alone, this rookie has an opportunity to be a top-20 fantasy receiver in 2015.
Unfortunately, it doesn't appear that the USC product has made a strong push for the starting job during camp. He's reportedly struggled with consistency, which isn't too surprising for a rookie in his first training camp. The issue here is that Philadelphia has two veterans in Riley Cooper and Miles Austin, who despite not boasting much upside, could be more consistent performers early in the season. With that said, an ADP at the end of the eighth round makes Agholor an intriguing option.
Breshad Perriman, Baltimore Ravens (ADP: 111)
Perriman currently has the inside slant on the starting position opposite Steve Smith. Though, the issue here is that he's missed 10 days of camp with minor knee issues. That set the rookie first-round pick back, especially in comparison to Marlon Brown and Kamar Aiken.
"He's (Perriman) a smart young man. He's not going to get behind learning the offense," offensive coordinator Marc Trestman said, via ESPN.com. "Obviously, he doesn't have the opportunity to develop his skill set on the grass, but we can't do anything about that. We'll work hard with Bobby (Engram, wide receivers coach) and our coaches to get him ready as quickly as we can and put him in a position where he can compete. When that time comes, we'll get started.”
That surely doesn't sound like an offensive coordinator that's giving Perriman the benefit of the doubt. And why should he? The Central Florida product has not been on the field to display the talent that made him a first-round pick in the first place. Until that happens, buyer beware.
DeVante Parker, Miami Dolphins (ADP: 158)
Speaking of buyer beware, Parker's situation is unfortunate. Not only has be been sidelined since off-season foot surgery, he's still three-to-four weeks away from hitting the practice field. And while the Dolphins still expect Parker to play a big role early in the season, those expectations have to be muted a bit. Unlike Perriman in Baltimore, there are a ton of talented receivers fully prepared to step up in Parker's absence. The Dolphins added both Kenny Stills and Greg Jennings in the offseason. They also have Jarvis Landry returning after an impressive rookie campaign. Despite positive vibes from Dolphins' camp, there's no reason to believe Parker will be anything more than the team's No. 4 receiver when camp breaks. That makes him an undraftable commodity.