Fantasy Football Tip 1.0: Think Outside the Box

By Vincent Frank on Thursday, August 8th 2013
Fantasy Football Tip 1.0: Think Outside the Box

In what has been a major point of contention around the fantasy football community, mobile quarterbacks seem to be getting more play earlier in drafts than your generic drop-back passers. 

Those caught in the old guard believe that having someone chuck it up 40-plus times in a pass-first offense is the best way to get a huge amount of fantasy points. See: Drew Brees and Tony Romo

Others, myself included, look more at what the mobile quarterback brings to the table in terms of the ground game. That's exactly what I am going to look at here. 

One mainstream draft strategy is to load up at running back in each of the first two rounds. This means following up a selection at this position in the initial round with another selection from the very same position in the second round. I have done this a few times in the past, including in some of the drafts I have taken part in this year. 

It usually sets me up well at running back and gives me a solid strategy at quarterback, tight end and wide receiver moving forward in the draft. 

The majority of those who utilize this strategy also decide to go with the late-round quarterback philosophy. In doing this, they go running back twice, look at a wide receiver or two and go back to the well at running back before focusing on both tight end and quarterback. 

Though playing it safe, this is a solid strategy. 

According to My Fantasy League's ADP (average draft position), which isn't necessarily something you should utilize as a draft resource, you could come away with a first few picks that look like this (let's assume No. 5 overall pick in a 12-team PPR league with this example). 

Example
Pick Player Position Team
1.05 C.J. Spiller Running Back Buffalo Bills
2.20 Chris Johnson Running Back Tennessee Titans
3.29 Roddy White Wide Receiver Atlanta Falcons
4.44 Frank Gore Running Back San Francisco 49ers
5.53 Matt Ryan Quarterback Atlanta Falcons

 

This specific example would give you one top-tier RB1 option and two solid RB2 options, who both have the ability to make the jump towards bottom-tier RB1 statistics. It also gives you a top-10 fantasy quarterback and a receiver in Roddy White, who has been one of the most consistent fantasy receivers in the league over the past five seasons. 

It's solid, but safe. 

Now look at an example that utilizes the strategy of going mobile quarterback instead of relying on a top-heavy running back philosophy. 

 

Pick Player Position Team
1.05 Jamaal Charles Running Back Kansas City Chiefs
2.20 Randall Cobb Wide Receiver Green Bay Packers
3.29 Victor Cruz Wide Receiver New York Giants
4.44 Wes Welker Wide Receiver Denver Broncos
5.53 Colin Kaepernick Quarterback  San Francisco 49ers
6.68 Giovani Bernard Running Back Cincinnati Bengals

 

This example draft may not look too mainstream in the grand scheme of things. After all, you would be waiting until the sixth round to pick up your "RB2" option, one that  may or may not start over BenJarvus Green-Ellis in Cincinnati this season. 

It doesn't mean that this strategy wouldn't work. 

A conservative projection for Colin Kaepernick's rushing yardage this upcoming season would seem to suggest 750-800 yards with seven or eight scores. That's an average of 47 rushing yards and 0.5 scores per game. 

Drafting someone like Matt Ryan, who isn't anywhere near a threat to run on the ground, may give you 700-plus more passing yards and eight to 10 more passing touchdowns than Kaepernick. How does this equate when it comes to fantasy football scoring? Without even having to look at sample scoring systems, I would take Kaepernick's rushing yardage increase more than the total amount of passing stats that Ryan would put up in comparison to San Francisco's starter. 

For example, the 800 yards and eight scores that many outlets are projecting for Kaepernick on the ground represent better fantasy rushing production than we have seen from Ryan Mathews in two of his first three seasons. According to MFL's ADP, Mathews is going No. 53 in drafts at this point. In essence, you are picking up a mid fifth-round pick while not losing out much in terms of quarterback production and gaining extra value at another position. 

If you are going to go through with this strategy, one thing is important. You need to find running backs and wide receivers who are valued highly in PPR leagues. 

This is why I went with Jamaal Charles, Randall Cobb and Wes Welker in the last example. They represent much larger upside in PPR leagues than C.J. Spiller, Roddy White and even Chris Johnson.  

While the second option may not pass the eye test, its upside if much higher than the first option. 

You can easily replace Kaepernick with Cam Newton and to a less extent both Russell Wilson and Robert Griffin III. This will enable you to get production on the ground from your quarterback while being able to pick up value at other positions rather than pick up someone like the aformentioned Johnson at 20 overall. 

Of course, if you don't utilize the PPR philosophy, just go with the first example and value Kaepernick higher than Ryan because of his ability to run. It all depends on where and who you like at quarterback. 

Next up: Don't run away from rookies. 

 

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