It's an all too common site. Scouring the waiver-wire and looking at your position in the waiver process about halfway through the season. We all go through this for a myriad of different reasons, none more commonplace than injures that seem to set our fantasy football teams back a great deal.
There is an urge to go after a talented player that has injury concerns, but that has also succeeded in fantasy football in the past. How do you get past that urge? What do you do in order to guard against injuries?
I will answer those questions here.
Playing the draft board as it is currently set up by sites like ESPN and Yahoo will not get you anywhere. There are chances you are going to have to take. As much as fantasy football is about skill, there is a great deal of luck involved in it. It isn't like slots in Vegas. Rather, fantasy football is more comparable taking your money and staring down the deal at a blackjack table.
Someone ahead of you shows a 17 with a combination of Tom Brady and Darren McFadden. Do you go for the 21 and attempt to draft Maurice Jones-Drew despite his holdout? After all, the Jaguars' running back would normally be a top 10 pick. Selecting him towards the end of the second round would be an absolute steal. However, we have seen what happens in the past when a running back holds out. See: Chris Johnson circa 2011.
Adrian Peterson is also someone you have to be extremely cautious about. Despite being activated from the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) List, the talented running back is coming off a serious injury in the form of a torn ACL and MCL. Those types of setbacks normally take 12 months to fully recover from. Peterson will definitely be in the Vikings lineup come opening day, but it remains to be seen just how much of an impact he will make.
If you are going to look at Peterson or Jones-Drew you better have a contingency plan in the form of a starting running back that will provide your team consistent points should one of those two not be cutting it. There is where a Michael Turner, Reggie Bush or Fred Jackson might come in handy after the mid part of the third round.
A combination of Adrian Peterson and Michael Turner would be an investment of sorts in regards to the top of your fantasy draft. Selecting two running backs in the first three rounds is questionable, to say the least. That being said, if you are taking the chance to pickup Peterson, even in the second round as you're RB1, it just makes sense to grab another 'back that is starting for his team, whether it be Peterson, Bush, Jackson, or another unnamed player.
Same goes for the quarterback position. On the surface Peyton Manning is definitely QB1 material. That being said, it is hard to imagine the future Hall of Fame quarterback going anywhere near the first two rounds after missing the entire 2011 season with a serious neck injury. Couple that with the fact that Manning is entering the twilight of his career and you have to be extremely cautious if you decide he is going to be a QB1 on your team.
If you do make that decision, I have one bit of advice for you....acquire a strong QB2 later in the draft. Jay Cutler, Josh Freeman and even Alex Smith come to mind first. If Manning is to miss some time, one of these three players should be able to step up and manage the quarterback position relatively cleanly and without incident.
I am not concluding that you should avoid players that are injury risks. That type of conservative drafting will get you in trouble. In order to win your fantasy team it just makes sense to take chances. That being said, you also have to have some contingency plans. Hopefully I helped you a little bit here.
My next article will take a look at the wide receiver and tight end positions.