There have been a lot of rumblings about the necessity to go running back in the initial round. While this seems like somewhat of a dogmatic approach within fantasy football circles, it just doesn't seem to hole a whole lot of ground for me.
You have to do the math and look at the difference between what a RB1 and a QB1 can provide you, especially in the top half of the initial round. If the difference between a running back in the first round isn't much more than what you could get from a combination in the second and fifth rounds, why not take that approach? If one of the elite fantasy quarterbacks are so far ahead of the second-tier players, in terms of projections, why not spend that early first-round pick on that position?
These are the questions that I am going to answer today as we prepared for fantasy draft season.
Aaron Rodgers is rated as the No. 4 overall player by ESPN, just ahead of holdout running back Maurice Jones-Drew. This doesn't seem to make a lot of sense to me. While Rodgers is projected to compile 56 more fantasy points than the fifth ranked quarterback Cam Newton, Jones-Drew is only projected to accumulate 44 more fantasy points than the No. 33 overall player Fred Jackson.
So, ESPN is “suggesting” you select Jones-Drew in the top five despite the fact that you could find nearly the same in terms of production from a running back slated to go towards the end of the second round. This doesn't even take into account his lengthy holdout from Jacksonville Jaguars' training camp.
Looking further down the rankings, I am even more baffled.
Why would you even consider taking Matt Forte midway through the second round, like ESPN and other mainstream outlets suggest? The Chicago Bears' running back has scored a total of 17 touchdowns over the course of the last three seasons. They added a solid goal line 'back in the form of Michael Bush and have ample red zone threats in the form of both Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery. In short, there is no reason to believe that Forte will score more than six touchdowns in 2012. He is also likely to see his receiving yardage total drop.
Why not go with Reggie Bush, who is ranked 26 spots behind Forte and could probably be had in the fourth round?
This would enable you to go elite quarterback in the initial round, one of the “second-tier” running backs in the second round, pickup a WR1 in the third round and then go back to the running back position a round later.
Adding more fuel to the proverbial fire is the drop-off in terms of fantasy production after the top five quarterbacks. Why would you venture to believe that Cam Newton isn't a much better fantasy option than the quarterback slotted right after him, Michael Vick? Seriously, that isn't even a debate worth having at this point. Is it?
A perfect example of a flawed “go running back at all cost mentality” Is the existence of both Ryan Mathews and Darren McFadden at the top 10 in that position. Are you seriously willing to be you're entire season on one of those two injury-plagued running backs? I am not.
Why not stray from the board a bit and pickup a more solid and consistent performer later in the draft? A combination of Jamaal Charles, Darren Sproles and Donald Brown doesn't seem too bad to me as a trio to go into the season with. Of course this is all predicated on you getting a QB1 on the level of Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees.
The point of this article is to tell you NOT to go with the running back at all cost mentality. It has burnt fantasy owners in the past and promises to do the same thing in 2012. By no means am I saying that you don't nab a LeSean McCoy or Ray Rice if they're staring at you in the face. Instead, I am indicating that you shouldn't reach for one of those perceived RB1's that tend to fizzle out when you add up your fantasy points after Monday Night Football.
The idea that you would consider a player like Chris Johnson over Tom Brady midway through the initial round is what leads me to this conclusion. Yes, I am looking at all of you that utilize ESPN and Yahoo ranking as a basis for you're draft. Instead, become an individual and take chances. I know that is the mentality I am going to go into the season with.