Fantasy Football: Top 5 Running Back Values of 2013

By Vincent Frank on Wednesday, July 10th 2013
Fantasy Football: Top 5 Running Back Values of 2013

In order to win in fantasy football, it's incredibly important to find production and talent at running back after the intial couple rounds. This is no easy task, as most fantasy owners understand full well that they need to over reach and react to trends during a draft. This type of reaction creates a trickle-down effect that seems to lead to a run of second-tier running backs a bit earlier than they should have gone. 

This is also one of the reasons that you look at ADP (average draft position). While that statistic isn't foolproof, it will help you find value at every position throughout the draft. 

One of the keys here is to not target just one player when it comes to utilizing this strategy. Target multiple players along multiple tiers and where they're pegged to go in terms of ADP. 

eDraft will run a series of articles focusing on the best values you will find at each position heading into fantasy football draft season. As the most important position, we check in at running back first. 

 

5. Giovani Bernard, Cincinnati Bengals

ADP: 73.15            2012 Statistics:  1,228 rushing yards, 6.7 average, 47 receptions, 490 yards and 17 touchdowns

Bernard is definitely someone to keep an eye on during the early part of training camp, especially if you are conducting your fantasy drafts closer to the start of the regular season. Based solely on production from college and talent, there is no reason why Bernard can't beat BenJarvus Green-Ellis out of the starting job in Cincinnati. Even if the two split carries rather early, Bernard should find himself shouldering a majority of the workload when all is said and done. 

He averaged over seven yards per touch with North Carolina last season, and is the best pass-catching running back in the entire draft class. If given the opportunity, especially behind a solid Bengals offensive line, you are likely looking at a 1,300-total yard campaign with a minimum of 50 catches. That's damn good value in the seventh round of standard 12-team drafts. 

 

4. Stevan Ridley, New England Patriots

ADP: 34.55            2012 Statistics: 1,263 rushing yards, 4.4 average, six receptions, 51 yards and 12 touchdowns 

If you are able to go out there and get Ridley at the end of the second round, you are definitely doing something right. It likely means that you were able to pick up one of the three elite RB1 options early in the first round, so there might be some hesitation to go back to the well again. 

Don't be fooled. 

By virtue of the Patriots perceived weakness as it relates to passing the ball on offense, Ridley should see his touches increase from the 18.5 he averaged per game last season. If so, you could be sitting on dynamite right here. After all, Ridley was the 10th-ranked fantasy running back last season. Give him an increase of four or five touches per game, and that goes up a great deal. With the likes of Steven Jackson, David Wilson and DeMarco Murray all ahead of him in terms of ADP, Ridley represents ridiculous value. 

 

3. Lamar Miller, Miami Dolphins

ADP: 42.67            2012 Statistics: 250 rushing yards, 4.9 average, six receptions, 45 yards and one touchdown

More of a projection pick than anything else. On the surface, it makes no sense that Miller currently has a higher ADP than Frank Gore, Vick Ballard and a few others who have contributed more in the past. But that's just it, fantasy football isn't all about contributions from the previous season. Miller's projections for 2013 are through the roof. He averaged five yards per rush last season and is likely going to be Miami's primary ball carrier this season. As you already know, extrapolation usually doesn't work well in the NFL. That's not what I am basing this projection and value on. 

Even if Miller's yards per attempt decrease, which is far from a certainty, he promises to put up top-tier RB2 numbers this upcoming season. Say he tallies four yards per rush behind a solid Miami offensive line in an offense that will be based somewhat on a West Coast offense. What does this mean for his fantasy production? The way I look at it, 1,400 total yards and eight or nine scores. That's solid numbers from someone currently going in the middle of the fourth round. 

 

2. Chris Johnson, Tennessee Titans

ADP: 24.66            2012 Statistics: 1,243 rushing yards, 4.5 average, 36 receptions, 232 yards and six touchdowns

As you will see in eDraft's 2013 NFL Fantasy Football Preview Magazine, which will be released soon, Johnson projects to see his numbers increase a great deal this upcoming season solely based on what Tennessee has done in the offseason. The additions of guards Andy Levitre (free agency) and Chance Warmack (draft) means that the Titans are putting all their chips on the table when it comes to CJ2K. That nickname, by the way, may actually live up to it's meaning with all-everything tight end Delanie Walker added to the mix. He has ranked among the best blocking tight ends in the NFL over the past three seasons and will add a whole lot to the table. 

The onus here is going to be completely on Johnson. He has absolutely no more excuses; meaning it's put up or shut up time for the former All-Pro running back. I wouldn't be surprised to see him ranked among the top-five running backs in the NFL when all is said and done this year. Picking him up towards the end of the second or the top of the third would be a coup. 

 

1. Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers 

ADP: 45.88            2012 Statistics: 1,214 rushing yards, 4.7 average, 28 receptions, 234 yards and nine touchdowns

I have never really been a huge fan of Gore from a fantasy perspective. He never really stood out as someone who will provide top-tier production form the running back position. This goes completely away from the way I feel about him as a player on the field. 

Now that Gore has seen his ADP drop towards the end of the third round, he has to be thought of as a steal. The veteran ranked 11th among running backs in fantasy points last season and has performed like a RB1 option nearly every season he has been in the NFL. The only exceptions there being his rookie campaign where he was a backup and the 2010 season where he missed five games due to injury. That's it. 

Some may indicate that Gore, who just turned 30, will be held back because of the presence of a deep running back group in San Francisco and the necessity for Jim Harbaugh and Co. to keep him fresh throughout the season. While these are all valid points, Gore still put up RB1 numbers last season and only averaged 16 rush attempts per game. Do you see that number going down in 2013? I didn't think so. 

 

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