When comparing tight ends Vernon Davis and Jason Witten in the physical world, Davis is a veritable Greek god and wins going away.
When making the comparison from a fantasy football standpoint, however, Witten belongs in a superior echelon—at least for the past couple of seasons.
Davis is a chiseled 6’3’’, 250-pound specimen with blazing 4.38 speed. He is faster than any linebacker on the field and usually stronger and faster than any defensive back. Point being, Davis is a mismatch nightmare for anyone covering him.
Witten, meanwhile, is no physical slouch himself at 6’6’’, 264 pounds. What makes him so great, though, is his sheer production on the gridiron. He set a career-high last season with 110 receptions, totaled his second-highest receiving output with 1,039 yards, added three touchdowns and piled up 56 first-down catches as an extremely productive possession receiver.
So, at age 31, will Witten register those types of numbers in his 11th NFL campaign and retain TE1 status?
And will Davis harness his awesome physical gifts and put up a statistic-friendly season a la 2009 and 2010?
Vernon Davis, San Francisco 49ers
Davis recorded his worst statistical campaign since 2008.
The 49ers starting tight end hauled in just 41 passes for 548 yards. His average of 13.4-yards per catch and five touchdowns weren’t bad, but they certainly weren’t commensurate with his All World talent.
Making matters worse was Davis’ disappearance in the passing game over the final six weeks of the regular season. He was targeted only 11 times, caught just six balls, totaled all of 61 yards and did not tally a single score.
Despite being utilized extensively as a blocker in the 49ers run-first offense, those receiving totals simply weren’t acceptable. The same goes for ranking No. 15 among fantasy tight ends.
Fortunately, Davis and Colin Kaepernick seemed to develop a rapport throughout the postseason. He came down with a pivotal 44-yard catch against Green Bay, then teamed up with Kaepernick for 11 receptions, 210 yards, one TD and a notable 19.3-yard average over the next two contests.
This late-season development, coupled with one other noteworthy factor, bode well for an increase in fantasy output in 2013.
San Francisco’s leading wideout Michael Crabtree is likely done until at least December with a torn right Achilles tendon. He was far and away Kaepernick’s most trusted target in 2012.
Lauded veteran Anquan Boldin will certainly receive many of the targets that would have been intended for Crabtree. Boldin has proven time and again his value as a tremendous possession weapon.
That said, Davis possesses a much greater knowledge of the playbook. It is in our estimation that he, and not, Boldin, will emerge as the leading receiver for the 49ers.
Jim Harbaugh’s offensive system favors tight ends. It utilizes them often in the passing game, especially now with rookie Vance McDonald in two TE-sets, and keeps them on the field for the consistent rushing attack.
Davis will command the highest number of targets from Kaepernick and produce his best fantasy season to date. Watch out for another double-digit TD output.
Projected Statistics: 71 receptions, 958 yards, 10 touchdowns
Jason Witten, Dallas Cowboys
Again, Witten tallied one of his best all-around seasons in 2012.
He was Tony Romo’s security blanket for all 16 games. He consistently moved the chains underneath and eclipsed the 1,000-yard plateau for the fourth time in his illustrious career.
The two negative byproducts of all those catches were a drop in average and touchdowns. Wideout Dez Bryant finally realized his unlimited potential and took away some of Witten’s numbers by racking up 1,382 yards and 12 scores.
Unfortunately, that inauspicious development as concerns Witten will continue in 2013.
Dallas drafted Gavin Escobar out of San Diego State with the No. 47 overall pick. The 6’6’’, 255-pound Escobar is an accomplished receiving tight end. He’ll detract from Witten’s production both in two TE-sets and when he spells the 31-year old who played through multiple injuries last season.
And Bryant, for his part, will only continue to get better and thus be featured more prominently in the Cowboys’ offense.
Witten surely won’t materialize as a fantasy dud this year. At the same time, he also won’t occupy the role of fantasy stud a la 2012 with his fifth-rated 121.90-point total.
Projected Statistics: 80 receptions, 824 yards, 3 touchdowns
In Comparison
Fantasy owners rejoice—Davis will finally earn his keep as a TE1 fantasy option. Witten also deserves a high tight-end selection. But owners should temper their expectations and be wary of taking him in a similar slot as years past.
Vernon Davis: 155.80 fantasy points
Jason Witten: 100.40 fantasy points
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