1. Tom Brady, New England Patriots
This specific matchup is interesting in that Brady performed much better away from Gillette Stadium during what was a stellar 2016 campaign. He threw 10 touchdowns compared to two interceptions in five home starts. Meanwhile, Brady tallied 18 touchdowns and zero picks in seven road outings. That interesting tidbit aside, he's definitely the top fantasy quarterback for Week 1.
Despite boasting Marcus Peters and Eric Berry in the secondary, Kansas Ciy still finished outside of the top 10 against fantasy quarterbacks last season. The team did pick off an NFL-best 18 passes, but with Brady having thrown two interceptions in 432 pass attempts last season, that's not going to be a major issue.
2. Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons
Ryan normally won't be ranked this high, but he has an optimal matchup against a weak Chicago Bears defense on Sunday. Sure Chicago finished a surprising second against fantasy quarterbacks last season, but most of that had to do with teams playing from a position of strength late in the game. The team still did yield a 93.5 quarterback rating and 64.5 completion percentage to opposing teams.
We saw Ryan win through a fantasy lens last season by putting up the fifth-best consistency mark among quarterbacks. With a tremendous matchup in Week 1, we're pushing him up a notch here.
3. Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers
It's hard to gauge just how the San Francisco 49ers' defense will perform under first-year head coach Kyle Shanahan. It could finish as a top-10 unit in the game. It could also rank in the bottom 10. There's a ton of untapped talent here. But until we see it come together on the field, we have to go with last season's performance. And it was ugly. San Francisco yielded a 96.9 quarterback rating and 30 passing touchdowns en route to finishing as the seventh-worst defense against opposing quarterbacks last season.
For his part, Newton is back at full health after undergoing off-season shoulder surgery. He' also has a full complement of weapons, including rookie first-round pick Christian McCaffrey to work with. Add in the likes of Kelvin Benjamin, Devin Funchess and Greg Olsen here, and we are expecting Newton to improve off his No. 18 fantasy ranking from a season ago.
4. Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks
Boy, Wilson has a tremendous Week 1 matchup against a Packers squad that was absolutely blitzed by opposing quarterbacks last season. In fact, Green Bay yielded over 4,300 passing yards and 32 touchdowns last year. This enabled the team to finish in the bottom seven against fantasy quarterbacks.
It also doesn't hurt here that Wilson put up the fifth consecutive QB1 performance to start his career last season. The issue here, at least in terms of year-long value, is that Wilson finished 30th among quarterbacks in consistency last season with 41 percent of his fantasy points coming in five games. That won't be an issue against one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL.
5. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
We coudn't possibly push Rodgers down any further on the totem pole here. Sure he's going up against the Legion of Boom on Sunday. It's not an ideal matchup, especially considering Seattle yielded the eighth-fewest passing yards and just 16 touchdowns through the air last season. Normally, the top fantasy quarterback on a given week, we have to push Rodgers down a bit in Week 1.
Though, here's a guy that led the NFL with 40 touchdowns and threw just seven interceptions last season. Rodgers has now finished as a top-two fantasy quarterback in seven of his past eight full seasons. Adding to this, he ranked No. 1 in fantasy consistency last season. We just can't ignrore those numbers,
6. Marcus Mariota, Tennessee Titans
Unless the Raiders' defense has improved leaps and bounds with pretty much the same cast, opposing quarterback will continue to be high-level fantasy plays against this unit. This team yielded the eighth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks last season en route to seeing six different opposing signal callers finish in the top-five fantasy-wise against this unit. Ouch.
For his part, Mariota turned in a fabulous sophomore season before seeing it end prematurely to a late-season injury. He put up 28 total touchdowns and just nine interceptions to go with nearly 3,800 total yards in 15 starts. Now, with both Eric Decker and rookie Corey Davis in the mix, look for improvement in all these numbers in 2017. Considering Mariota finished last season as a QB1 option, that tells us something about his specific matchup this week.
7. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints
Four 5,000-plus yard performances in the past six seasons. A fantasy ranking in the top six in each of the past 12 seasons. The numbers Bree's has put up throughout his career are just eye-opening. There's no other way to go about it. He's simply been a fantasy juggernaut in every sense of the word.
While Brees' has a difficult Week 1 matchup against a Vikings defense the sixth-fewest fantasy points last season, there's no real reason not to value him as a QB 1 option here.
8. Derek Carr, Oakland Raiders
Carr is in the same boat as the above-mentioned Russell Wilson. He finished last season as the ninth-best fantasy quarterback while ranking 21st at that position in fantasy consistency. That definitely pushes him down a notch in terms of ADP heading into the 2017 season. Even then, here's a guy that has put up 81 touchdowns and just 31 interceptions in his first three NFL seasons. That's some absurd stuff right there.
In what should be a high-scoring affair between these two teams, there's really no reason to believe the Titans can contain Carr and the Raiders' passing attack. Tennessee yielded the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks last season. Meanwhile, Carr finished in the top five at his position in five of the six games he played against bottom-10 pass defenses last season.
9. Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers
Antonio Brown is healthy. Marta is Bryant is back from suspension. Le'Veon Bell reported to camp. The Steelers signed their franchise left tackle to a long-term contract after he briefly held out this summer.
Oh, and the Steelers are going up against a horrible Browns defense that yielded a 101.8 quarterback rating and the most fantasy points to players at this position last season. Ranking Big Ben at nine is somewhat conservative. In reality, he boasts top-five upside here. It's all going to be about whether the Browns can keep this close in order to give Roethlisberger more opportunities.
10. Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Winston has been a fantasy black hole in his first two NFL seasons. As a sophomore last year, he finished 15th among quarterbacks in fantasy points. Though, Winston also finished as a bottom-five fantasy quarterback four times and outside of QB1 territory in terms of fantasy consistency. This was aided by the fact that 11 of his 18 interceptions came in just four games.
Slated to take on a Dolphins defense that yielded the fifth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks last season, we're expecting somewhat of a breakout performance from Winston in Week 1. And while consistency might continue to cause issues, look for a strong season-opening statistical performance here.
| Rank | Player | Team |
| 11 | Kirk Cousins | Redskins |
| 12 | Dak Prescott | Cowboys |
| 13 | Matthew Stafford | Lions |
| 14 | Eli Manning | Giants |
| 15 | Carson Palmer | Cardinals |
| 16 | Alex Smith | Chiefs |
| 17 | Carson Wentz | Eagles |
| 18 | Philip Rivers | Chargers |
| 19 | Andy Dalton | Bengals |
| 20 | Sam Bradford | Vikings |
| 21 | Jay Cutler | Dolphins |
| 22 | Brian Hoyer | 49ers |
| 23 | Blake Bortles | Jaguars |
| 24 | Joe Flacco | Ravens |
| 25 | Jared Goff | Rams |
| 26 | Tom Savage | Texans |
| 27 | Trevor Siemian | Broncos |
| 28 | Mike Glennon | Bears |
| 29 | DeShone Kizer | Browns |
| 30 | Scott Tolzien | Colts |
| 31 | Nathan Peterman | Bills |
| 32 | Josh McCown | Jets |