Week 13 is officially here, and we’re now only two weeks away from the start of fantasy playoffs. This week we’ll also be treated to two huge, fantasy-stud showdowns. First up: the mega-matchup between the Denver Broncos and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. At the beginning of the season, nobody could have imagined that this game would have so many fantasy (and real!) playoff implications. In fact, it features so many head-to-head matchups of top fantasy players; we decided to cover them all here, instead of in individual articles. Let’s break everything down by position, cover a few aspects key to the outcome of the game, and see who comes out on top!
Quarterback: Peyton Manning vs. Josh Freeman
Manning, the hands-down favorite for NFL Comeback Player of the Year, is having a fantastic season. He has proved to be the spark Denver’s offense needed. Manning is currently sixth in the league with 3260 yards, and averaging 297 per game. He has a total of 26 touchdowns (ranked third), averaging two per game, and has only thrown eight interceptions, with a quarterback rating of 104.8, third best in the league. All of this adds up to 218 fantasy points (fifth best) and 20 points per week.
While Freeman’s numbers pale slightly in comparison; He is a very good quarterback and having a great, bounce back season after last years’ slump. This season, he’s posted a 94.3 quarterback rating (10th best), amassed 2761 passing yards, and is averaging 251 per game. Freeman’s racked up 21(sixth) touchdowns and only seven interceptions; good for 190(11th) fantasy points, and 17 per week.
Prediction: With cornerback Eric Wright suspended four games for PED’s, the Buccaneers’ league worst-secondary is seriously depleted, and Manning will take full advantage. Freeman will likely struggle to get enough time in the pocket, with Denver’s league best-pass rush breathing down His neck constantly. Manning 24 points, Freeman 12 points.
Running back: Doug Martin vs. Knowshon Moreno
Martin is having a phenomenal rookie season, and is currently the second best fantasy running back in the league. This season He’s rushed for 1050 yards (fourth best) and is averaging 96 yards per game. He’s tallied nine rushing touchdowns and is a potent threat in the pass game; with 332 (third) receiving yards and one touchdown. Martin is the second best fantasy running back, with 196 total fantasy points and averaging 18 points per game.
Moreno has been inactive for the last eight games, despite recovering fully from an ACL injury suffered last year. But, with running back Willis McGahee going on injured reserve, Moreno was activated last week and had a big game against Kansas City; breaking off 85 rushing yards and 26 receiving yards, good for 11 fantasy points.
Prediction: Despite a very good defense, Tampa Bay will look to lean on Martin and establish a solid run game.
With the Broncos looking to take advantage of the Buccaneers’ awful pass-defense, Moreno won’t make much of a splash as a runner, but should factor heavily in the pass game as a blocker and receiver. Martin 16 points, Moreno 12 points.
Wide Receiver: Vincent Jackson/Mike Williams vs. Demaryius Thomas/Eric Decker
This is a very talented group of receivers, and from a fantasy perspective; two are in the top-five and three are in the top 15.
A huge part of Manning’s return to success in Denver has got to be contributed to his wide receivers. Demaryius Thomas is one of the top-ten receivers in the NFL this season, and the fifth best fantasy receiver; averaging 12 points per game and totaling 132. His sixth best 1015 yards and 6(11th) touchdowns have helped ignite this offense. Thomas’ biggest partner-in-crime has been Eric Decker, who is second in the league with 8 touchdowns, despite only having 685 receiving yards. He’s ranked 13th in fantasy points with 117 total, and averaging 11 per game.
Jackson has proven to be a game-changing offseason acquisition for the Buccaneers, racking up 959 receiving yards and 7 touchdowns, good for 140 fantasy points (fourth best) and averages 13 per week. Williams has been a solid number two for Freeman, with 625 receiving yards. If you add his five touchdowns to Jackson’s seven, they account for over half of Freeman’s touchdown passes.
Prediction: Like I said before, Manning and the Broncos are going to take full advantage of the Buccaneers’ league-worst pass defense. Thomas and Decker will benefit from this the most, and should have huge days.
If the Buccaneers’ offensive line can hold the Broncos’ blood-thirsty pass defense at bay, Jackson should have a decent day and Williams as well. Thomas 18 points, Decker/Jackson 12 points, Williams eight points.
Tight End: Jacob Tamme/Joel Dreessen vs. Dallas Clark
With so many talented wide receivers and receiving-backs in this game, the tight ends won’t be a huge factor outside of run-blocking. But with Rob Gronkowski still out, chances are pretty good you have one of these guys on your roster. All three are ranked in the top 25 fantasy points per week, and can be counted on for around five per week.
Prediction: The tight ends will be a nonfactor in this game, primarily serving as extra blockers. They might see a couple of targets in the pass-game, possibly in the red zone. Tamme four points, Dreessen/Clark two points.
There you have it, folks! This game should be a thriller and crazy-fun to watch. Look for things to remain fairly close; but the Broncos’ Stifling defense and the Buccaneers’ apparent-lack of a secondary, should push the tide in Denver’s favor.