As the 2012 fantasy football season wraps up on Sunday, so does Colin Kaepernick’s 2012 campaign for the San Francisco 49ers.

And the pertinent question that concerns both the 49ers and fantasy owners alike is will he end the season on a high note against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 17?

Kaepernick produced his most disappointing outing last week against Seattle. He accrued a mere 14.86 fantasy points, with 63 of his 244 passing yards and lone touchdown pass coming in a garbage-time fourth-quarter drive.

What was most unnerving about Kaepernick’s play, though, was the fact that he had just come off his most dominant performance of the season the week prior. He tossed four TDs and racked up 25.64 fantasy points, outplaying Tom Brady and the rather unbeatable Patriots at home.

But to be fair, the Seahawks had been 6-0 at home and had rendered ineffective top fantasy QBs the likes of Brady, Aaron Rodgers and Tony Romo. At least, to the tune of just three TDs against three interceptions.

It also wasn’t a turnover-laden disaster against the Seahawks by any means—he had just one INT. Yet not accounting for any scores until the 1:40 mark of the fourth was entirely unacceptable.

(Not to mention making my three-TD, 22-point prediction seem rather silly.)

In any case, will Kaepernick put that unfortunate game behind him and return to his normally prolific self in the Week 17 matchup with the Cardinals?

Let’s find out.

Arizona sports the No. 12 total defense in the NFL. The Cardinals passing defense, however, ranks No. 3, having given up just 18 TD passes and less than 200 yards per game. This unit has also forced the second-most interceptions (22) and lowest quarterback efficiency rating (68.5).

The Cardinals shutdown production to the tune of 12.11 QB fantasy points per game (league-low) comes from a variety of sources as well.

Six players have two or more interceptions, five have four or more sacks and four players have multiple forced fumbles.

Cornerback Patrick Peterson and free safety Kerry Rhodes are the undeniable leaders of this formidable group. They have a remarkable 11 interceptions and 26 pass breakups. Peterson, for his part, has been especially impressive by allowing a scant 50.6 completion percentage and 53.0 efficiency rating.

On the other hand, 49ers pass-catchers exploited Peterson and Rhodes in Week 8 en route to one of the worst performances in coverage by these Cardinals defenders.

Michael Crabtree burned Peterson for two touchdowns, which accounted for half of the total scores Arizona’s No. 1 corner has allowed all season. Crabtree, along with tight ends Vernon Davis and Delanie Walker, totaled four catches of 15-plus yards against Peterson and Rhodes as well.

All told, San Francisco receivers caught all seven passes thrown their way when matched up against the top-rated Arizona defensive backs.

Now, we must note that Alex Smith was the 49ers quarterback in these teams’ first head-to-head battle of the season. He, and not Kaepernick, was the QB who had just one incompletion (18-of-19) and produced three TDs and a near perfect rating of 157.1.

The questions, then, are can Kaepernick amass such terrific numbers, and will the 49ers even put him in position to do so?

Well, to answer the first question, he certainly can. Crabtree will no doubt receive a heavy dose of passes as the 49ers’ No. 1 guy, with Mario Manningham, Kyle Williams and potentially Davis (concussion) all out for San Francisco. He, along with Walker and Randy Moss, took the upper hand on Arizona’s secondary once before and can surely do it again.

Kaepernick has also proven himself by throwing for two scores against the Bears’ vaunted secondary and four against a legitimate Patriots unit. He has a 63.2 completion percentage (10th-highest) on the season to boot.

Then again, the Cardinals feature the league’s 28th-ranked rushing defense. They have surrendered 137.5 yards per game, including 4.4 per rush and 13 runs over 20-plus yards (fourth-most in the NFL).

Moreover, the 49ers, led by coordinator Greg Roman, must reestablish their No. 4 rushing attack—especially against such a porous defense, and especially following their ghastly performance against the Seahawks.

And especially with regards to the importance of establishing their fundamental identity and offensive bread and butter in time for the playoffs.

Frank Gore had all of six total carries for 28 yards, with backup LaMichael James totaling just four for 15 yards. That must change in Week 17.

Expect Gore to triple his workload and James to double his for a combined total of 26 carries. Throw in around six runs by Kaepernick and a couple by Anthony Dixon.

If the 49ers meet their season average of 57 offensive snaps per game, that number will divide into 34 rushing and 23 passing plays.

So, will Kaepernick’s roughly 29 plays lead to quality fantasy production, thereby ending his season on a high note?

Final Prediction

I project a total of 160-plus yards rushing and two touchdowns for the 49ers, with Kaepernick contributing just over 40 and one rushing TD for the first time since Week 14. He’ll also tack on 190 yards passing and one score through the air as part of a conservative aerial attack.

With zero turnovers for the first time in three games, chalk up Kaepernick’s fantasy total to 21 points.

Here’s to Kaepernick, my fantasy predictions and, most importantly, your fantasy team finishing off the 2012 campaign with a bang.

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