“I expected more from you…”
Has anyone ever said that to you? It is one of my least favorite things someone could say to me. It implies that the person saying it has made a positive assumption about me and, for whatever reason, I have let that person down. I would rather get screamed at or cussed out, or both.
The below list is not designed as a sit/start type article. Rather, it is aimed at trying to refocus some of our expectations. These will be players that you may be relying on heavily for big points each week, but for some identified reason, the player may not be as productive as usual. Here are the Top 5 players that could underperform in Week 4. We expected more from you…
1. Chris Johnson, Running Back, Tennessee Titans
It has been a more than respectable start to the 2013 campaign for Johnson. The days of CJ2K may be long gone, but a more modest CJ1.3K seems well within reason. He currently sits sixth in the NFL in rushing with 256 yards through three games. Not mind-blowing by any means, but solid. He has a number of things working against him this week, however. First, he has yet to find the endzone in 2013 and he appears not to be a part of the goal-line game plan at all this year. Second, he averages the lowest amount of yards per carry of any running back in the top ten (3.7). When you have no touchdowns to supplement, it takes a lot of 3.7 yard carries to be fantasy relevant. Third, the match-up is horrible. I wrote about the Jets defense against the run last week and they made me look good. In case you missed that article, the Jets are sixth in rush yards per game (79.7), seventh in points per game (16.7), third in yards per carry (3.2) and first in fanatsy points by opposing running backs. Yeah, they’re good. Depending on your specific situation you may or may not have to rely on Johnson this week, but because of Johnson’s specific situation this week, look for him to underperform.
Better play this week: DeMarco Murray
2. Victor Cruz, Wide Receiver, New York Giants
Undoubtedly, one of the biggest surprises of the 2013 season so far has been the turnaround by the Kansas City Chiefs. It has taken them three games to eclipse their win total of a year ago. A main reason for the improvement is their defense. They have been excellent this year. They are second in points per game (11.3) and fifth in passing yards per game (185). And who’s coming to town? The lowly Giants. Fresh off of an embarrassing 38-0 loss to the Panthers last week, the Giants are looking like one of the worst teams in the NFL. Cruz’s underperformance will be more attributed to the offense as a whole, rather than specifically to him. Let’s face it, wide receiver is a position of dependence. He depends on others being productive in order for him to be productive. And right now, the Giants are not productive. Eli Manning has a completion percentage of 58.8% and leads the league with eight interceptions. Manning, however, deserves a bit of a pass. His offensive line is terrible. They give him zero time to throw. In fact, they gave up seven sacks last week to the Panthers. And which team leads the NFL in sacks? Uh-oh.
Better play this week: Pierre Garcon
3. Arian Foster, Running Back, Houston Texans
It pains me to put Foster on this list. Over the past couple of years, he has been the model fantasy player. He rarely missed any time and he consistently scored points. That’s all we can ask. Obviously, the match-up is bad. You don’t have to dig very deep to figure out that Seattle’s defense is good. In case you fear I got lazy on this one: Seattle is first in total yards per game (241.7), first in points against (9) and fourth in fantasy point to opposing running backs. This would be enough to warrant consideration for an underperformance, but there’s another reason I fear Foster’s in for a tough week. For all his greatness, Foster has always relied on a heavy workload. Through the first three weeks of last season, for example, Foster had 79 carries. This season: 49. He has still managed to be decently effective, ranking 13th in rushing yards. The issue is the guy who’s ranked 18th. Ben Tate is making a serious case for being a lead back in this league. Tate is averaging 6.8 yards a carry this year and can no longer be ignored. A tough match-up coupled with a decreased workload screams underperformance. We will always have 2010. Tate can’t take that away from us.
Better play this week: Darren McFadden
4. Mike Wallace, Wide Receiver, Miami Dolphins
So, it looks like Ryan Tannehill has a real good chance of becoming a legit NFL quarterback. He ranks in the top half of the league in yards, completion percentage and rating. Not bad. But, it looks like he may still need time to find chemistry with the team’s big free agent acquisition. Through three games, Wallace ranks t-57th in receiving yards with 152 (115 of that came in Week 2). Furthermore, he will be facing a surprisingly stingy New Orleans Saints defense. The Saints are fourth in passing yards a game (184.3) and are allowing the sixth lowest amount of fantasy points to opposing wide receivers (16.6). Also, the Saints have yet to yield a touchdown to an opposing team’s number one wide receiver. Wallace is always a threat to hit the home run deep ball, but if he doesn’t, look for him to continue to struggle.
Better play this week: Stevie Johnson
5. Matt Ryan, Quarterback, Atlanta Falcons
The ultimate game manager is at it again. Matty Ice is off to another solid start this year. He is currently above average in all meaningful quarterback statistics and is averaging over 19 fantasy points a game. He never seems to do anything spectacular, good or bad, and that is a coveted trait in the world of fantasy football. This week, however, it could be tough going for the Falcons. They face a highly ranked New England Patriots defense. The Patriots are currently allowing the second least amount of fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. They are sixth in passing yards a game (188.3) and second in points a game (11.3). While I don’t expect Ryan to have a horrendous game, I do not see him putting up the numbers fantasy owners have become accustomed to.
Better play this week: Philip Rivers