Gonzalo Garcia-Pelayo stood in a casino room full of roulette wheels in Madrid, Spain. The failed movie and music producer had always had a fascination with this game of probabilities. "Could it be beat," he wondered.
Suddenly, an idea: these wheels are nothing more than machines and machines are not all equal. Garcia-Pelayo had stumbled upon the theory of “wheel bias,” which contends that certain roulette wheels are not completely random. Due to tiny imperfections, small differences in the pocket sizes or slight imbalances in the mounting, certain numbers would appear more often. Garcia-Pelayo enlisted the help of his rather large family. For the better part of a year, a member of his family was constantly at the casino, recording the results of every spin of every wheel. This was extremely tedious work. But they recognized: the larger the sample size, the more accurate the results would be.
One day, Gonzalo Garcia-Pelayo walked into the casino as he had every day for some time now. But this time, he sat down to play. His research was complete. He had collected enough data. He had run it through a computer program that he created. He had identified one wheel that did indeed have a bias. The number 7 appeared on this wheel much more often than probabilities would suggest. Garcia-Pelayo would win 600,000 euros that night.
The casino promptly banned and even sued Garcia-Pelayo. The court found that he had done nothing illegal. Shockingly, he still was not welcomed back at the casino.
It is with the story of Gonzalo Garcia-Pelayo in mind that I present Week 5: Sneaky Starts. As always, these “sneaky” players are intentionally off-the-wall and under the radar. Please do not take these recommendations to mean that these players merit a start in all leagues and all formats. They do not. This is simply a list of players that for some identified reason should outperform their usual level of production. They should be looked at as your potential "number 7," as they are much more likely to hit than probabilities would suggest.
Brian Hoyer, Quarterback, Cleveland Browns
Did the Browns forget to tell Brian Hoyer that they intended to punt on the 2013 season? Hoyer has been a very good quarterback since he got the start two weeks ago. While leading the Browns to a 2-0 record, he has 590 yards, five touchdowns, three interceptions and a completion percentage just under 60%,. For anyone not named Peyton Manning, 2.5 touchdowns a game is great. In fact, Hoyer’s five passing touchdowns equals the total of other quarterbacks like Colin Kaepernick, Andrew Luck and Michael Vick (and those three have played twice as many games). Hoyer has scored 18 fantasy points each week that he has started (ESPN standard scoring). If he could have equaled that output each week this year, Hoyer would have the seventh most fantasy points of all quarterbacks. This week he faces the Bills. Not the greatest match-up (they picked off Joe Flacco five times last week), but not the worst either. The Bills are 22nd in the league in passing yards (277), allow the second most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers (hello Josh Gordon) and have given up at least two touchdown passes in every game this season.
Prediction: 325 yards, two touchdowns and one interception
Rashad Jennings, Running Back, Oakland Raiders
Jennings will undoubtedly be one of the top waiver wire pick-ups this week, as he should be. Last week, both Darren McFadden and Marcel Reece went down with injuries. Jennings stepped in and did an admirable job. He finished with 45 rushing yards and led the team with eight receptions for 71 yards. I do not think Jennings will have tremendous impact long-term. He had a shot at being a starting running back in this league last year and did not play well (2.8 yards a carry). I do think, however, he could be a nice plug-and-play flex option this week, especially if Matt Flynn starts again. The San Diego defense has proven to be vulnerable against the pass. Jennings could certainly benefit from a number of Flynn check-downs.
Prediction: 95 total yards and one touchdown
Marlon Brown, Wide Receiver, Baltimore Ravens
This Ravens offense looks nothing like the squad that won the Super Bowl just last year. Anquan Boldin left for the bay area, Dennis Pitta suffered a season-ending injury in training camp and then there are the two hilariously unfortunate incidents Jacoby Jones has been through. Enter the 6’5’’ undrafted free agent out of Georgia. Brown has made the most of an opportunity. He has three touchdowns in four game and has become the clear number two option for a team that desperately needed more options. The better Torrey Smith plays, the more defenses will gear up to stop him and leave Brown with ample opportunities to produce. This week they face a Dolphins team that got torched on Monday night. While the Ravens’ passing attack may be a notch (or two) below the Saints’, they should be able to move the ball through the air against a unit giving up nearly 300 passing yards a game. Look for Brown to make it four out of five.
Prediction: Five receptions, 70 yards, one touchdown