The below list is not designed as a sit/start type article. Rather, it is aimed at trying to refocus some of our expectations. These will be players that you may be relying on heavily for big points each week, but for some identified reason, the player may not be as productive as usual. Here are the Top 5 players that could underperform in Week 7…
Manage your expectations accordingly.
1. Jordy Nelson, Wide Receiver, Green Bay Packers
Jordy Nelson is a great receiver and is having another solid season in Green Bay this year. Unfortunately for him, there are a number of external factors that could lead to a less than average day. First of all, Randall Cobb will be out for 6-8 weeks. Cobb is exactly the type of receiver that helps Nelson the most. Cobb will go over the middle, move the chains and open things up for Nelson down field. The Packers are hoping second year receiver Jarrett Boykin can fill that role, but Boykin is unproven at best. Secondly, James Jones is questionable this week. If Jones cannot go, that leaves only the aforementioned Boykin and Jermichael Finley as serious options in the passing game, other than Nelson of course. If that is the case, look for Nelson to receive extra attention from the defense. Which leads us to the third strike this week, Joe Haden. The Cleveland defense as a whole looks pretty good against the pass on paper. They are eighth in passing yards per game (214.3) and allow the fourth fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers (15.68). Haden deserves a lot of the credit for this success. In the last three weeks, Haden has gone against Calvin Johnson (three receptions for 25 yards), Stevie Johnson (two receptions for 19 yards) and A.J. Green (seven receptions for 51 yards). Look for Haden to shut down another top wideout and Nelson to underperform.
Better play this week: Antonio Brown
2. Stevan Ridley, Running Back, New England Patriots
If you were one of those owners who stayed patient with Ridley, congratulations, you were finally rewarded (Although, he was probably on your bench). Last week, Ridley showed why he was drafted in the second round of most fantasy drafts. He finished the game with 20 carries for 96 yards and two touchdowns. It was quite a performance and a good sign for the rest of this year. This week, however, he faces a terrible match-up. The Jets rush defense has been the reason for a lot of underperforming backs this year. Last week, they held Le’Veon Bell to 34 yards on 16 carries. Eerily similar number to how Ridley fared in Week 2 against this team (16 carries for 40 yards). The Jets give up the second least amount of rush yards per game (75.7) and the least amount of fantasy points to opposing running backs (11.98). I know you may be itching to start Ridley after last week’s performance, but it will be very difficult for him to even come close to those numbers.
Better play this week: Giovani Bernard
3. Arian Foster, Running Back, Houston Texans
A lot like the circumstances for Jordy Nelson, Arian Foster finds himself in a very difficult situation, none of which in under his control. Foster has really turned it on in the last couple weeks and has been the lone bright spot for an embarrassingly underperforming team. The Texans are turning to undrafted, second-year quarterback Case Keenum to run the show. If that wasn’t disconcerting enough, they have to go up against the Kansas City defense (ask Terrelle Pryor if facing the Chiefs is fun). Kansas City is better against the pass, but their rushing stats are pretty great, as well. They rank sixth in fantasy points by opposing running backs (13.62). Now, Keenum did look good in the preseason, but this will be a much tougher test. If he struggles, look for the Chiefs to stack the box to totally take away Foster, and see if Keenum can beat them. Obviously, depending on how your team is constructed, it would be tough to sit Foster. You kind of got to roll with him and hope for some dump off passes and maybe a goal line carry or two. But based on the circumstances at the moment, your expectations of Foster’s output should be tempered.
Better play this week: Matt Forte
4. Calvin Johnson, Wide Receiver, Detroit Lions
What’s that saying about tugging on Superman’s cape? Oh yeah, don’t do it! Well, it’s been a tough couple of weeks the world’s foremost authority on catching passes and scoring touchdowns. After missing the game all together two weeks ago, Johnson was relegated to a decoy role last week (although he did get some red zone looks). He finished with three receptions for 25 yards on eight targets. Reports are that he was limited in this Thursday’s practice and I would advise you to keep a close eye on the reports going forward. The match-up this week is tough, as well. The Bengals are allowing 216.3 passing yards a game and less than 15 fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. Also, Johnson will have to face a talented cornerback, Leon Hall, all day. With all that being said, this still is Calvin Johnson. Hopefully, I have put the reverse jinx on him and he will go off. But, this week looks like another tough one for Megatron and his fantasy owners.
Better play this week: Justin Blackmon
5. Robert Griffin III, Quarterback, Washington Redskins
As a DC resident, I know that saying something bad about RGIII will likely get you escorted to the city limits by men in black SUVs. But, he simply did not look that good last week against a very suspect Cowboys defense. His completion percentage was below 50% and he finished the game with a very pedestrian 246 yards, zero touchdowns and one interception. Now, he did run for 77 yards, and his ability to do things like that always raises his fantasy value. But something just seems off about him this year. The match-up is average. The Bears allow a lot of passing yards per game, but they do not give up a lot of passing touchdowns, as they are only allowing 14.78 fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Maybe Griffin is getting healthier each week and his performances will continue to improve, but, for now, better options are out there.
Better play this week: Nick Foles