If you are relying on any player in this game to win this week, good luck. Yet another nationally televised NFC West game that promises to be a defensive battle.
The San Francisco 49ers come into Monday Night Football ranked first in scoring defense, first in pass defense and first in overall defense. It is going up against an Arizona Cardinals offense that has yielded 35 sacks in seven games and ranks 27th in passing.
Meanwhile, the 49ers pass offense ranks 28th and is going up against the sixth overall defense in the NFL.
One advantage that San Francisco might have here is that its rush offense ranks first overall and is going up against an Arizona rush defense that ranks 21st. This seems to indicate that Frank Gore will get the ball early and often tonight in Arizona. He is coming off a 182 yard performance against a stout Seattle Seahawks defense last week.
Larry FItzgerald is always a must start, but I wouldn’t be expecting a ton of production from him this evening. The following is a list of what opposing No. 1 wide receivers have done against the 49ers this season.
Opposing Wide Receivers vs 49ers | Player | Receptions | Yards | TD | Fantasy Points |
| Jordy Nelson (GB) | 5 | 64 | 0 | 8.4 |
| Calvin Johnson (Det) | 8 | 94 | 0 | 9.4 |
| Percy Harvin (Min) | 9 | 89 | 0 | 9.8 |
| Santonio Holmes (NYJ) | 4 | 29 | 0 | 0.9 |
| Steve Johnson (Buf) | 6 | 39 | 0 | 3.9 |
| Victor Cruz (NYG) | 6 | 58 | 1 | 11.8 |
| Sidney Rice (Sea) | 2 | 32 | 0 | 3.2 |
| Averages | 4.9 | 57.9 | 0.14 | 6.8 |
Needless to say, San Francisco has been damn good against fantasy wide receivers this season. For his part, Fitzgerald has put up single-digit fantasy points in four of the Cardinals' first seven games. He is averaging six receptions for 81 yards in 16 career games against the 49ers, about right where he is against the rest of the NFL.
In short, if you have to rely on Fitzgerald to provide WR1 production today, you are not sitting too pretty right now.
Some would also conclude that LaRod Stephens-Howling is a solid FLEX pickup this week at running back for Arizona. Think again. While he did perform well in lieu of both Beanie Wells and Ryan Williams last week, the young running back is going up against one of the best rush defenses in the NFL.
I have been intrigued by Andre Roberts this season. He has clearly provided a great deal of production as either a WR2 or FLEX option. Roberts has actually racked up as many double-digit point games this season as his counterpart, Fitzgerald, on the other side. Overall, the talented youngster is a surprising 17th in terms of fantasy points at the wide receiver position in 2012.
The major issue as it relates to Roberts is how the 49ers choose to defend Fitz on the other side. If they go straight up with Carlos Rogers, Roberts could be in for a long night going up against a combination of Tarell Brown and Chris Culliver on the outside, both of whom have played stellar ball this season. In fact, it could be said that Culliver has been San Francisco's best defensive back.
Other than that, not much to see here from Arizona on offense. It goes without saying that John Skelton isn't even a thought going up against the best pass defense in the entire NFL and playing behind what has to be the worst offensive line in the league. Michael Floyd, though talented, is nowhere near being a fantasy performer at this point in his career.
One' could make the decision to go with Early Doucet, but he is averaging less than 10 yards per reception this season. Just take a look at the averages against San Francisco this season as they related to opposing No. 1 wide receivers. That leads me to believe Doucet will be a mere non-factor.
San Francisco, on the other hand, probably isn't in a much better position as it relates to fantasy production. Alex Smith has struggled over the course of the last two games and probably isn't even a viable QB2 option. This coming off the heels of some outstanding early-season fantasy production from the enigmatic quarterback.
I wouldn't touch Michael Crabtree here either. While the talented young receiver has put up some solid PPR numbers this season, he is going up against Patrick Peterson and should be held in check. Crabtree has also only scored six touchdowns in his last 27 games, definitely not something you are looking for from a consistent fantasy wide receiver.
The idea that Vernon Davis wasn't even targeted once against the Seattle Seahawks last week is beyond me. He had been the most productive fantasy tight end in the NFL over the course of the first month, but Smith continues to look away from him. Of course some of that could have to do with defenses trending coverages his way, but the 49ers needs to find a way to get their best pass-catcher involved. A 10-day hiatus in between games might fix this issue. It seems that Davis is set for a solid game against Arizona.
Kendall Hunter and Randy Moss are two wildcards here. I definitely expect Smith to look at Moss's direction downfield like he has in each of the last three games. A long touchdown would give the future Hall of Fame receiver a solid fantasy week by itself. However, Moss has not been featured in the 49ers' pass offense and will not do much in terms of PPR leagues. He just doesn't receive enough targets.
Normally I would be a strong supporter of Hunter being a solid FLEX option tonight, especially considering that San Francisco is going to go with the ground-and-pound. However, the way Gore is playing right now, there is no reason to believe that Hunter is going to see double-digit touches against Arizona.
The only true starting caliber players in this game are Gore and Fitzgerald with the former being the most likely to provide consistent points tonight.