ESPN had Matthew Stafford as the fourth ranked fantasy quarterback heading into the 2012 regular season. He now enters Week 8 as the 15th ranked fantasy quarterback, right behind the likes of Ryan Fitzpatrick and a struggling Cam Newton.
Definitely not a good sign for those who had Stafford pegged as a top-tier QB1 option and selected him early in the second round. Heck, ESPN, among other sites, had Stafford as a late first or early second rounder.
Okay, so here is where Stafford stands through the initial seven weeks of the 2012 season.
Stafford has yet to record more than 20 points in a single game this season, accumulating a low of 12 in each of the first two weeks. After throwing a franchise record 41 touchdowns last season, Stafford is currently on pace to throw a total of 13. The five touchdowns that Stafford has thrown in six games is less than Aaron Rodgers, who he was ranked just ahead of Stafford, threw against the Houston Texans a few weeks ago.
To put that into perspective, Stafford has thrown as many touchdowns as Matt Cassel and less touchdowns than a myriad of quarterbacks that include: Blaine Gabbert, Carson Palmer, Russell Wilson and Kevin Kolb. Let that sink in for a second while I get to what is wrong with Stafford.
Simply put, he is regressing in nearly every aspect of the game. Stafford struggles with pocket presence, isn’t able to progress through reads and has been absolutely atrocious in terms of accuracy. How many times have you seen him overthrow a wide open wide receiver this season?
It is also important to understand that 2011 might have represented a ceiling in terms of production from Stafford, who was dazzling in every single way. A ceiling in terms of what type of production he might provide throughout the duration of his career.
On that note, 2011 hasn’t or won’t be par for the course as it relates to Stafford. He is struggling beyond every previously set expectation at this point. Don’t expect him to remain this putrid for too long. The talent is there on the offensive side of the ball in Detroit, mainly focusing on Calvin Johnson as its No. 1 wide receiver.
Additionally, if you spent that top-round pick on Stafford you pretty much have to run with him for the remainder of the fantasy season unless you picked up a solid QB2 in the draft or found a gem through the waiver process. Not many of them there.
For dynasty league players, I have on suggestion for you: Keep Matthew Stafford. He is a QB1 option, a top of the line one at that, moving forward. The idea that he has just lost it in the matter of seven weeks is a joke. This is the natural regression we see from some of the best following a tremendous season, though the difference is more marked.