Mark Twain famously said, “Make your mark in New York and you are a made man.” I don’t know Eric Decker personally, but I’d bet something—maybe my afternoon coffee—that Decker wants to be said man in the Big Apple. At least on the football field.

So too, author Lindsey Kelk eloquently states that “People come to New York to become someone new.” Will Mr. Decker become a new man, a new player, a new star?

So what do we know about Mr. Decker, besides the fact that he married singer Jessie James last summer and just became a daddy? That he stars in a reality television program with said wife, and presumably with new child, soon? Did you know he also was drafted by the Milwaukee Brewers and the Minnesota Twins, as an outfielder, in consecutive years? Oh yeah. There are also some football related facts we should and do acquaint ourselves with.

Drafted by the Broncos in 2010 from the University of Minnesota, Decker entered the league as a big, tough wideout with good hands and good football smarts—he graded out as the top receiver in the famous Wonderlic tests that year—but also injured. His lack of playing time his senior year led to being drafted later than expected, falling to the end of the third round.

After playing sparingly his rookie season, Decker’s numbers have jumped the past three years, going from 44 to 85 to 87 catches, with 32 touchdowns over that span. The big jump from 2011 to 2102 has obvious correlation to a guy who really likes Omaha showing up in Denver. Still, Decker had to share targets, catches and fantasy points with the likes of Demaryius Thomas and Wes Welker, and put up numbers to the tune of finishing in the top 10 fantasy wide receivers in 2013. Impressive.

There’s a big elephant in the room, a burning question inquiring minds want to know. Is Eric Decker simply a product of Denver and Peyton Manning’s motherboard football brain? Or is he really a legitimate No. 1 receiver for an NFL franchise, ready to put up fantasy numbers for owners in 2014 and beyond? We’ll start with a couple of point / counterpoint reality check points for Jessie’s hubby as we look at Denver versus the Jets.

The leading pass-catcher for the Jets last year, Jeremy Kerley, had 43 catches. That would have been good for sixth on the Broncos. Kerley also was the Jets leading fantasy receiver on the year, finishing a scary 62nd amongst receivers. That’s only three spots ahead of Julio Jones; yes, Julio played five games last year. That Julio Jones.

Additionally, most football minds—at least the ones with functioning brain activity—might suggest a slight dropoff, going from Peyton Manning to Geno Smith. Want proof? Peyton hit on 68% of his passes last year, compared to 56% for Smith. Peyton COMPLETED more passes (450) than Geno ATTEMPTED (443). I’m no math major, but that sure sounds like a significant reduction in potential opportunities for Decker to haul in catches. As another point of reference, Smith completed 247 passes in 2013. Peyton completed more than that (252) to his three top wideouts (Demaryius, Decker and Welker) alone.

One could argue that Decker won’t likely share looks with other standout receivers, as the others sitting on the Jets receiver depth chart presently include Kerley, David Nelson and … yeah. Accurate point. But that’s just the softball being lobbed into play for this next point.

Unless Rob Ryan and company bring in another top flight receiver before the season kicks off, Decker will always draw the opponent’s top defensive back. Every week. Every play, at least theoretically. I’m sure you’ve already heard the rumblings about having to line up opposite Darrelle Revis twice every year. Check and check mate.

I believe Geno Smith will improve and become a more complete NFL quarterback. For the record, I don’t believe he’ll approach the accuracy or ability of Peyton Manning. I know, chalk me up for prophecy of the year on that one. I also believe Geno will target Decker, likely often as a first and second option. But I don’t believe the combination of Smith’s potential improvement and Decker’s ability to separate himself as a go-to No. 1 receiver supports a recommendation of Decker as a top end fantasy receiver for 2014.

That’s the perspective from this particular analyst’s chair—it’s actually more of a swivel recliner, if we’re keeping score. Eric Decker will struggle to reach top 20 fantasy status this coming year.

But start spreading the news, New Yorkers, Sinatra style. Eric Decker is headed your way. And maybe he will, indeed, wake up and find he’s king of the hill, top of the heap. Hopefully for Jets and fantasy fans, Decker remains in a New York state of mind. On the football field, of course.