Fantasy Slant: How Tom Brady's Court Victory Should Impact Your Drafts

By Vincent Frank on Thursday, September 3rd 2015
Fantasy Slant: How Tom Brady's Court Victory Should Impact Your Drafts

The decision from Judge Richard M. Berman in the Federal Court of Manhattan to throw aside a four-game suspension the NFL handed down to Tom Brady for his alleged role in the Deflategate scandal is a major victory for the quarterback and the NFL Players Association as a whole

It also comes at a time when fans around the football world are conducting their fantasy drafts. Considering Brady's importance to the growing fantasy football community over the past 15 years, this is no minor detail. 

While forcing some owners to change their philosophy, Berman's decision shouldn't have much of an impact on your draft strategy. Prior to the ruling, Brady's ADP had him as the 10th quarterback off the board (71st overall). Considering a vast majority of the drafts that took his ADP into account were held with the belief that Brady would miss the first four games, that's a mighty interesting value we are placing on the veteran quarterback. 

Remember, Brady finished last season as the ninth-best fantasy quarterback, less than a point per game better than the 13th-ranked quarterback, Joe Flacco. This is an important distinction in that Brady now finds himself stuck between the elite fantasy signal callers and those most of us attempt to avoid in the mid rounds in order to utilize the all-too popular late-round QB strategy. 

Where does Brady fit into the equation? Is he a viable early-round fantasy option? 

With an ADP in the sixth round, Brady is hovering between being considered way too early for someone of his ilk and owners finding solid value in the four-time Super Bowl champion. The issue here is that Brady will likely see his ADP lowered as more drafts following Berman's ruling are taken into account. 

Is the fourth round the limit? What about the third round? After all, Russell Wilson is currently valued as a mid third-round pick in standard 12-team leagues. Based on last season's performance alone, with Wilson averaging over three more fantasy points than Brady, it has to be believed that the latter shouldn't be valued as early as the third. 

Now that we have played the role of Captain Obvious, where does Brady fit in behind Wilson?

Drew Brees and Ben Roethlisberger are currently valued as fourth-round picks. Yes, the fantasy football community is surely over-drafting this position. Both Brees and Big Ben finished well ahead of Brady last season. And both have the pieces in place on offense to continue acting as better fantasy options. In reality, it's not really that close. 

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When drawing a conclusion about Brady's fantasy value, it appears that he's in the range of the Tony Romo's and Matthew Stafford's of the world. Based off Romo's consistency (top-12 fantasy quarterback each of the past five years) and Stafford's lack of consistency (15th-ranked fantasy quarterback last year), you can do the math here. Stafford may have the weapons Brady doesn't possess, but the latter has also been a much more consistent fantasy performer, finishing each of his last seven full seasons as a QB1 option. 

That's the value for Brady, somewhere in between Romo and Stafford. Based on current ADP's, that makes him a fifth-round pick in standard leagues. That's also an area of the draft where owners tend to start looking for their QB1 options after adding their starters at running back and receiver earlier on. 

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The larger question at hand is value. Do you value Brady in the fifth over a Jay Cutler in the 12th round? Based on last year alone, that's the difference of 0.4 fantasy points per game. We could do this same split for all the late-round quarterbacks out there, and draw the same conclusion. No matter how much Berman's ruling impacts the defending champion Patriots, the fantasy impact just isn't there.

Don't reach for Brady, especially now that his ADP is set to take on a whole new meaning. 

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