Fantasy Slant: Josh Gordon Reinstated, Will Be Suspended Four Games

By Vincent Frank on Monday, July 25th 2016
Fantasy Slant: Josh Gordon Reinstated, Will Be Suspended Four Games

Cleveland Browns wide receiver Josh Gordon has been reinstated by the NFL and will return after serving a four-game suspension. Gordon, 25, has not suited up on a football field since December of 2014 after committing multiple violations of the league's substance abuse policy. 

The still young receiver has been among the most-productive players at his position since a breakout 2013 campaign that saw him put up 87 receptions for a league-leading 1,646 yards. 

How will this impact the Browns from a fantasy perspective? Where does Gordon now slot in when it comes to wide receiver rankings? We'll focus on that below. 

The first thing to note here is that Gordon will be suspended the first quarter of the season. That obviously drops him down from the elite group of receivers that include Antonio Brown, Dez Bryant, Julio Jones and A.J. Green. With the receiver position stacked in the fantasy football world, that four-game suspension should loom large here. 

A total of 11 receivers put up 1,200-plus receiving yards a season ago. In order for Gordon to match that in 2016, he'd have to average 100 receiving yards per game. Interestingly, that's the number he's at over his past 19 games. Whether this translates with Robert Griffin III under center in Cleveland remains to be seen (more on that in a second). 

What we do know is that Griffin III has not necessarily lost his ability to throw the deep pass. In his last season as a full-time starter in D.C., the embattled signal caller completed three touchdown passes on balls that traveled 30-plus yards down the field. With Gordon's down-field play-making ability, this is definitely something we need to take into account. 

Gordon's success on passes 21-plus yards down the field
Rec Rec % Yards AVG TD
17 44.8 690 40.6 10

This tells us a story of a receiver that doesn't just get open over the top, he has the ability to take it to the house on almost every play. That's something we haven't seen from another receiver in the NFL over the past several seasons. 

When looking at Gordon's success in 2013, it's also important to note that he wasn't necessarily surrounded by elite-level quarterback play. 

Browns 2013 quarterback stats
Player Comp % Yards TD INT QB Rating
Jason Campbell 56.8 2,015 11 8 76.9
Brandon Weeden 52.8 1,731 9 9 70.3
Brian Hoyer 59.4 615 5 3 82.6

That's a whole lot of meh right there. In fact, Gordon represented 23 percent of the team's receptions, 38 percent of its receiving yards and 35 percent of its touchdown receptions. While those numbers likely won't repeat themselves in 2016, it's important to note that Cleveland now possesses a wide receiver friendly head coach in Hue Jackson, who helped A.J. Green become one of the best fantasy receivers in the game during his tenure in Cincinnati. 

The last point here might be the most interesting. Cleveland opens the season against Philadelphia and Baltimore — two teams that were among the worst in the NFL against fantasy receivers a season ago. Unfortunately, Gordon won't be on the field for those two games. Though, he does have some rather sexy matchups moving forward on the season. 

Opponent (2015 ranking against FF WRs)
Team Ranking
New England 21st
Tennessee 20th
Baltimore 29th
Pittsburgh 31st
New York Giants 22nd

If we were to put a number on Gordon's ceiling this upcoming season, and taking into account his four-game ban, it would likely be as a mid-tier WR3. Based on ADP, that makes him a sixth-round pick. If you were to draft him a round higher, no one would question it. Though, if Gordon were somehow around later, you'd have to jump on it. The upside here is real. 

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