Days after it was assumed Randall Cobb was headed to California to play for the Oakland Raiders and hours after many were questioning why the Green Bay Packers were so silent in the 72 hours leading up to free agency, Adam Schefter silenced the chatter with his usual breaking news.
Just like last offseason, general manager Ted Thompson re-signed one of his young, top free agents. While the move certainly leaves plenty of discussion for the outcome of the NFC this season, the bigger story is Cobb's fantasy value. As mentioned in the beginning, it was assumed Cobb would leave for the Raiders or Jacksonville Jaguars. While it made sense for Cobb from a financial aspect, fantasy owners worried about the hit in fantasy value with Derek Carr or Blake Bortles throwing him the ball.
The concerns are no more, but will Cobb return to being a top-10 wide receiver in 2015? The answer is no, Cobb's chances of repeating his 91/1,287/12 line are low. While he will return to being Aaron Rodgers number two target in the offense and Jordy Nelson will continue to attract double coverage, Green Bay's offense is changing.
Despite all of the great success the Packers have had with drafting wide receivers like Nelson, Cobb, Greg Jennings and James Jones, it was Davante Adams who had the best rookie season of the group. There were weeks where he struggled his timing on routes and understanding the playbook, but no rookie wide receiver under Mike McCarthy's coaching had this much success. Now with a full season under his belt, Adams has another offseason to developing chemistry with the two-time Most Valuable Player. Adams is set to see a jump from the 77 targets he saw as a rookie, taking some away from Cobb and Nelson.
Fantasy owners also have to keep an eye on tight end Richard Rodgers who slowly developed as his rookie season rolled on, earning more snaps on offense. In the final weeks of the season and during the playoffs, he displayed his ability to separate from linebackers and get open over the middle to move the chains. He will see more work in the red zone next season as well, taking away some of Cobb's targets. Green Bay consistently finishes around 530 pass attempts every season and that isn't likely to change significantly next season.
There's no denying Cobb plays a major role in this offense, but it's reasonable to expect his 138 targets last season to take a hit. He is still very capable of a strong 85/1,000/9 touchdown season, pushing him back from the sixth best fantasy wide receiver to around the top-15.