Here we go again with another classic playoff matchup between rival teams in the Indianapolis Colts and the New England Patriots. But this year there is one thing different in this rivalry; no Peyton Manning. For the past decade these two teams have gone at it in the playoffs and for the most part, the ending result went into the Patriots favor.
In head-to-head matchups since 2001, the Patriots have ten wins and five losses against the Colts. That is a good 2:1 ratio for the Patriots and has won 67 percent of their matchups. In the playoffs in the past 10 years, these teams have met three times and the Patriots won two of them, one leading them to a Super Bowl victory in 2004. The one game that the Colts won also led them to a Super Bowl in 2007.
But like I said before, there is no Peyton Manning in this rivalry anymore. This weekend begins a new rivalry in Andrew Luck and Tom Brady. It took a while for Manning to get over the hump of beating the Patriots and we will soon find out if the new franchise quarterback can out-duel the great Tom Brady. If Luck happens to do so, the fans of Indianapolis have something great to look forward to for the next 10 years. Here are some keys of the game that will decide who wins this AFC divisional brawl:
5. Luck needs to limit mistakes.
In last week’s Wild Card matchup against the Chiefs, Luck really got lucky. Not many quarterbacks get away with throwing three interceptions and a lost fumble and still end up winning the game. Maybe it’s not “luck” per say because he had a stellar fourth quarter performance which makes him the new captain comeback in Indianapolis.
It goes to show that it doesn’t matter how you start, it’s about how you finish and that what this entire Colts team is about. The Patriots are too experienced of a team to not hold a 28 point lead in the second half so Luck really needs to make good decisions throughout the whole game.
4. Colts have to establish running game.
While watching and reviewing last week’s game, the Colts had little to no running game at all. Yes they were playing catch-up so they had to a lot of passing to get the ball in the end zone so it is understandable until you realize that in the first half the Colts ran the ball just four times. Yes you heard me right, FOUR TIMES! This is not a strategy that they can continue with throughout the playoffs if they want to succeed.
All season Trent Richardson has been struggling so you think if he wants to prove his worth it would be in the playoffs. If he can’t get the job done then Donald Brown is your answer because he has proven that he can handle the workload and move the ball down the field. In the regular season he averaged 5.3 yards per carry so it would be smart for the Colts to get the ball in his hands early and often to help establish the run game and open up some deep throws later in the game.
3. Can Aqib Talib hold T.Y. Hilton to a minimal role?
Talib can be a great cover cornerback when he wants to be. Earlier this season we have seen him do a stupendous job covering star receivers A.J. Green and Jimmy Graham and pretty much shutting them out completely.
Last week we saw Hilton go off with 13 receptions 224 yards and two touchdowns against a pretty talented Chiefs defense. The last thing the Patriots want is to see him catch fire again and put up similar numbers. There is a strong chance that Talib will be covering him for a majority of the game and that will play a major role in the outcome. There aren’t any other receivers on the Colts offense that make an impact as big as Hilton so if Talib can minimize his role then the Patriots chances of winning go up.
2. The Colts need to beat the weather.
From looking at the weather predictions for this Saturday in Foxborough it will not be as cold as it has been the past few days which has been in the single digits in most parts of the region. They are predicting the temperature to be in the low 50’s, high 40’s with a 60 percent chance of rain throughout the day and night.
It is slightly favorable for the Colts because they will not have to play in frigid weather which is something the Patriots are used to. If it does happen to rain then that gives advantage to the Patriots due to the Colts playing in a dome for half of their season.
One thing to keep in mind is that the Colts have played extremely well when away. They average 24 points per game when away and Andrew Luck has thrown almost just as many touchdowns away as home.
1. Patriots have to protect Brady
As we have all seen in the past, Tom Brady is at his best when he stands tall in the pocket and fires the ball to the open receiver, driving down the field. This happens best for him when his offensive line gives him the time to do it. Brady will need to keep an eye out over his shoulder for the NFL sack leader of 2013 Robert Mathis. He also has eight forced fumbles on the season and forced a crucial sack fumble last week against the Chiefs.
Brady knows how to operate the field and will need the protection to do it. Expect to see a heavy dose of Julian Edelman throughout the game and their three headed monster in the back field consisting of Stevan Ridley, LeGarrette Blount and Shane Vereen. As long as they can hold on to the ball, that is, since we all know head coach Bill Belichick doesn’t tolerate fumbles from his running backs.
Conclusion
No matter how you look at this game, it is cooking up to be an instant classic. Brady will be Brady and maybe we will see another historic fourth quarter from Andrew Luck. Either way you can bet that I will not be missing this action this Saturday and I strongly advise that you do not miss it either.
As for a prediction, I think it can go two ways. Either the Patriots repeat what they did earlier this season or the Colts squeeze one out like they did last week. Here are my two predictions but my gut feeling is the prediction with the Patriots winning.
Colts – 24 Patriots – 38
Colts – 30 Patriots – 28