‘Tis the season of the mock draft. This year’s draft is one the most difficult to predict of any in recently. There are a couple clear top ten players, but many of them have similar grades, and the whole board evens out pretty quickly. After the first fifteen or twenty picks, basically anyone is fair game for the next 40 picks.
I don’t typically try to project trades in mock drafts, because they’re essentially impossible to predict. But this year, there will almost assuredly be at least half a dozen in the first round. Some of them aren’t easy to foresee, but a couple are all but guaranteed. For that reason, I’ve decided to include two trades that I think would be foregone conclusions if the draft worked out the way it does below. For both trades, I calculated the values of each pick based on the trade value chart at Draft Countdown.
So let’s take a look at the mock!
First Round
1. Kansas City Chiefs - Sharrif Floyd - DT, Florida - 6'3", 303
Floyd is the top player on my board, and he fills a need. I’m just not sold on them taking an OT first overall. I think Floyd will be a bigger impact player from day one.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars - Dion Jordan - DE/OLB, Oregon - 6'7", 240
After growing up as a coach in Pete Carroll’s system, Gus Bradley will value unique and athletic defensive players. Jordan will be a huge asset for their defense as a pass rusher and dropping into coverage.
3. Oakland Raiders - Star Lotulelei - DT, Utah - 6'3", 320
I’m not quite as high on Lotulelei as some are, but his upside could merit a top-five pick, and he fills a massive need. The rebuild continues...
4. Philadelphia Eagles - Lane Johnson - OT, OU - 6'6", 302
While Eric Fisher is the top OT on my board, this draft will have some surprises, and Chip Kelly is likely to provide at least one. He will covet Johnson’s extreme athleticism, and will be willing to bank on his upside.
5. Detroit Lions - Eric Fisher - OT, CMU - 6’7”, 306
Jeff Backus retired, leaving a big hole at left tackle. Fisher can start from day one and allow Riley Reiff to kick inside to guard, where he’s a more natural fit.
6. San Diego Chargers from Cleveland Browns - Luke Joeckel - OT, TAMU - 6'6", 310
The first trade! After seeing two tackles leave the board in quick succession, the Chargers can’t risk missing out on Joeckel as well. They jump ahead of Arizona to snag Philip Rivers a blindside protector with a high floor. The Browns are happy to recoup the second-round pick they used on Josh Gordon.
7. Arizona Cardinals - Matt Barkley - QB, USC - 6'2", 230
With the three top offensive tackles off the board, the Cardinals’ next biggest need is at quarterback. They traded for Carson Palmer, so there will be no pressure on Barkley to start immediately. He can grow into the role while learning under another former USC signal-caller.
8. Buffalo Bills - Geno Smith - QB, WVU - 6'3", 220
The Bills would’ve preferred Barkley, due to his superlative leadership skills and grasp of reading defenses, but they’re happy to trade that for Smith’s superior arm and mobility. He fits Doug Marrone’s Sean Payton-inspired vertical offense.
9. New York Jets - Barkevious Mingo - DE, LSU - 6'4", 240
The Jets can take anyone and call it an upgrade. Mingo has perhaps the highest upside as a pass rusher in the draft, and he’s the type of dynamic athletic defender Rex Ryan covets.
10. Tennessee Titans - Sheldon Richardson - DT, Mizz - 6'3", 295
The Titans are thrilled that Richardson drops this far. He’s a top-five talent in this draft and he fills a defined need.
11. Cleveland Browns From San Diego Chargers - Ezekiel Ansah - DE, BYU - 6'5", 275
The Browns would’ve taken Ansah at sixth overall and called it a day, so adding a second-round pick and getting him here is all in a day’s work.
12. Miami Dolphins - D.J. Fluker - OL, Bama – 6’5”, 335
Rumors broke recently that the Dolphins are heavily interested in Fluker. While this is the time for smokescreens and misinformation, the fit is really growing on me. This could be a distinct possibility.
13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Dee Milliner - CB, Bama - 6'1", 198
The Bucs wanted to trade down, and had several offers to do so, but decided to stand pat when Milliner dropped to them. He has the upside to merit a top five pick, but a so-so combine and a few yellow flags on tape push him this far.
14. Carolina Panthers - Johnathan Hankins - DT, OSU - 6’3”, 320
Maybe a slight reach here, but three defensive tackles are already off the board, and the Panthers don’t want to risk losing out on all of the top six. Hankins can start from day one and plug up the interior of the Panthers’ formerly-porous defense.
15. San Francisco 49ers from New Orleans Saints - Kenny Vaccaro - S, UT - 6’1”, 218
The Saints desperately need extra picks this year, and the 49ers have an absurd plethora. The Rams are sure to take a safety, and Vaccaro is a fantastic fit for both teams, so the 49ers swap first-round picks with the Saints to move ahead of their division rivals. They also give up a second round pick and the latter of each of their third round and fifth round picks.
16. St. Louis Rams - Jonathan Cyprien - S, FIU - 6’0”, 209
With Vaccaro off the board, the Rams take the next best thing. Cyprien is an asset as an in-the-box safety, and he’s a capable Cover 2 defender as well. He has Jeff Fisher tenacity.
17. Pittsburgh Steelers - Jesse Williams - DT, 'Bama - 6'3", 320
The Steelers let the board come to them, and they pick up Casey Hampton’s heir. Williams plays with fantastic power and leverage and will inject some youth into an aging defense.
18. Dallas Cowboys - Chance Warmack - OG, Bama - 6'2", 322
The Cowboys click their heels on their way to the podium with this pick. Warmack is the best guard prospect in a decade, and he’ll act as insurance for Jerry Jones’ new $108 million man.
19. New York Giants - Tank Carradine - DE, FSU - 6’4”, 276
Carradine is the best 4-3 defensive end in the class when healthy. If he aces his personal pro day on April 20th, he may not even fall this far. In this case, however, the Giants replace Osi Umenyiora with another powerful pass rusher.
20. Chicago Bears - Jonathan Cooper - OG, UNC - 6'3”, 298
Many have suggested Cooper could even go ahead of Warmack, the best guard prospect in years, so the Bears are thrilled he falls this far. The additions of Jermon Bushrod and Cooper (as well as moving J’Marcus Webb back to right tackle) mean Jay Cutler will be a much happier man in 2013.
21. Cincinnati Bengals - Arthur Brown - LB, KSU - 6'1", 230
There’s a good chance Brown doesn’t even fall this far, so if he does, the Bengals will happily halt his fall. While he’s a tad bit on the small side, he plays much bigger. He can start at Mike or Will linebacker, and will provide a boost in speed and coverage for an already talented unit.
22. St. Louis Rams - Tavon Austin - WR, WVU - 5’9”, 174
The Rams might have risked taking the speedy Mountaineer with their first pick if the 49ers hadn’t leapt in front of them to take Vaccaro. They’re happy he fell to their second pick, and they snag him here. He can replace Danny Amendola in their offense, which, along with Jared Cook and Jake Long, has made huge progress this offseason.
23. Minnesota Vikings - Xavier Rhodes - CB, FSU - 6'1", 217
The Vikings need a young wide receiver, but they have another pick shortly, and they really need help in their secondary. Rhodes is cut from the cloth of the modern NFL cornerback: long, strong, and aggressive. He’ll ultimately match up well against the likes of Brandon Marshall and Calvin Johnson.
24. Indianapolis Colts - DeAndre Hopkins - WR, Clemson - 6'1", 200
The Colts pick up my top wide receiver in the draft. “Nuke,” as he is known to the Clemson faithful, is a subtly quick, reliable route runner who should quickly become a favorite target for Andrew Luck.
25. Minnesota Vikings - Keenan Allen - WR, Cal - 6’2”, 206
The Vikings pick up their ideal wide receiver with their second pick. Allen suffered from poor quarterback play in college, and still managed to be remarkably productive--which bodes well for his relationship with Christian Ponder.
26. Green Bay Packers - Datone Jones - DT, UCLA - 6’4”, 283
Jones is a versatile defender who can line up at three-tech, five-tech, or even as an rush linebacker. He joins Jerel Worthy to provide depth and talent to the Packers’ defensive line.
27. Houston Texans - Tyler Eifert - TE, ND - 6’5”, 252
Tight end is necessarily a huge need for the Texans, what with Owen Daniels and the underrated Garrett Graham already in the fold. However, Eifert is too good for them to pass up. He can line up out wide as a huge threat opposite Andre Johnson, and his ability as an inline tight end fits their play-action game extremely well.
28. Denver Broncos - Bjoern Werner - DE, FSU - 6'4", 256
Once considered a potential top ten pick, Werner’s somewhat inconsistent tape and underwhelming Combine land him in the Broncos’ lap. He can step right in opposite Von Miller, and they hardly miss a beat, despite losing Elvis Dumervil.
29. New England Patriots - Khaseem Greene - LB, Rutgers - 6’1”, 241
The Patriots have had coverage issues for the last couple of years. As a former safety, Greene is a terrific coverage linebacker, but he doesn’t surrender much in the run game and he has a knack for forcing turnovers. The Patriots have a nice rotational set of linebackers for any down and distance.
30. Atlanta Falcons - Travis Kelce - TE, Cincinnati - 6'5", 260
With Tony Gonzalez returning for at least one more year, the Falcons give him an understudy. Kelce is already a better blocker than Gonzalez has ever been, and he has the same dynamic potential as a receiver.
31. New Orleans Saints From San Francisco 49ers - Jarvis Jones - OLB, Georgia - 6'3", 245
The Saints could’ve held their ground and taken Jones at 15th overall, and no one would’ve batted an eye. He’s terrific value at this point. With him, Junior Galette, and Victor Butler, Rob Ryan can dial up some unique pressure packages in their new hybrid 3-4 scheme.
32. Baltimore Ravens - Kevin Minter - LB, LSU - 6'1", 245
Ray Lewis has retired, and the Ravens find his replacement. Like the Hall of Famer, Minter isn’t the quickest linebacker available, but he’s incredibly instinctive, and he can lay some wood. He should start early on in his career.
Second Round
33. Jacksonville Jaguars - Sylvester Williams - DT, UNC - 6’3”, 313
34. San Francisco 49ers - D.J. Hayden - CB, Houston - 5’11”, 191
35. Philadelphia Eagles - Menelik Watson - OT, FSU - 6’6”, 320
36. Detroit Lions - Damontre Moore - DE, TAMU - 6'4", 250
37. Cincinnati Bengals - Matt Elam - S, UF - 5’10, 208
38. Arizona Cardinals - Mike Glennon - QB, NC State - 6'7", 225
39. New York Jets - Cordarrelle Patterson - WR, UT - 6’2”, 216
40. Tennessee Titans - Desmond Trufant - CB, UW - 6’0”, 190
41. Buffalo Bills - Manti Te’o - ILB, ND - 6'1", 241
42. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Robert Woods - WR, USC - 6'1", 190
43. Miami Dolphins - Corey Lemonier - DE, Auburn - 6’3”, 255
44. Carolina Panthers - Jamar Taylor - CB, BSU - 5'11", 192
45. Cleveland Browns From San Diego Chargers - David Amerson - CB, NC State - 6’1”, 205
46. St. Louis Rams - Larry Warford - OG, Kentucky - 6’3”, 335
47. Dallas Cowboys - Kawann Short - DT, Purdue - 6'3", 299
48. Pittsburgh Steelers - Eric Reid - FS, LSU - 6’1”, 213
49. New York Giants - Jordan Poyer - CB, OSU - 6’0”, 191
50. Chicago Bears - Travis Frederick - C, UW - 6’4”, 312
51. Washington Redskins - Gavin Escobar - TE, SDSU - 6’6”, 254
52. Minnesota Vikings - John Jenkins - DT, Georgia - 6’4”, 346
53. Cincinnati Bengals - Giovani Bernard - RB, NC - 5’9”, 202
54. Miami Dolphins - Zach Ertz - TE, Stanford - 6’5”, 249
55. Green Bay Packers - Alec Ogletree - LB, Georgia - 6’3”, 242
56. Seattle Seahawks - Quinton Patton - WR, LA Tech - 6’0”, 204
57. Houston Texans - Sio Moore - OLB, UConn - 6’1”, 245
58. Denver Broncos - Johnthan Banks - CB, MSU - 6’2”, 185
59. New England Patriots - Margus Hunt - DE, SMU - 6’8”, 277
60. Atlanta Falcons - Alex Okafor - DE, UT - 6’5”, 264
61. New Orleans Saints From San Francisco 49ers - Darius Slay - CB, MSU - 6’0”, 192
62. Baltimore Ravens - Barrett Jones - C, UW - 6’5”, 306