2015 Review
The Green Bay Packers offense and season changed drastically on August 23 of last season. In a meaningless game to starters, wide receiver Jordy Nelson tore his ACL and was lost for the season. While we didn't know it at the time, Green Bay's offense would be completely out of sync without its top receiver, more so than anyone could have imagined. Rodgers finished under 4,000 passing yards in 10-plus games for the first time since 2010 and he was only the 18th most consistent fantasy quarterback last season. The receivers were exposed more without Nelson and the running game felt the extra pressure and struggled.
The offseason was about getting Nelson back healthy and ready to contribute come Week 1, in addition to needing Eddie Lacy drop weight and return to the team in better football shape. Two key issues from the 2015 season that they relied on this offseason, so much so that they didn't draft a running back in the 2016 NFL Draft and only drafted one wide receiver, Trevor Davis, in the fifth round. They have banked on a previously great group returning to form, but it comes with plenty of risk.
Quarterback: Aaron Rodgers
Rodgers was not the same quarterback in 2015, for multiple reasons. His completion percentage took a dramatic drop from 65.6 percent in 2014 to 60.7 percent in 2015. There is certainly plenty of blame that goes on Rodgers' shoulders, his mechanics and accuracy were just off last season as he seemed to miss throws that were almost standard for him in previous seasons. Rodgers is also a quarterback who relies heavily on trust and when he was without his favorite receiver for an entire season and opposing teams took away Cobb, he didn't have enough trust in some of the younger receivers to make the plays. Green Bay also made a change at play caller as Mike McCarthy shifted into an overview role, though McCarthy will return to calling plays this season.
Looking ahead to the 2016 season, there is more reason for optimism. While Nelson is still on the Packers' physically unable to perform (PUP) list, he is expected back next week. While Green Bay may be cautious with him to start out, he should still be ready to go for the start of the season. His presence not only gives Rodgers two wide receivers who he can absolutely trust on any throw. McCarthy resuming play-calling duties should add a little more stability and familiarity to the Packers offense, while a healthy offensive line could make a significant difference in how the Packers' offense performs as well.
Running Backs: Eddie Lacy, James Starks
Lacy's weight has been a headline for over a year now, but the increased scrutiny and pressure picked up later in the season. Green Bay's offense hadn't flowed smoothly, Lacy's yards per carry sat below 4.5. He was slower to react, couldn't hit the holes as quickly as he used to as growing concerns rose about his NFL future. After he turned in just 758 rushing yards and three touchdowns, McCarthy made it clear to his running back that Lacy needed to get himself in better shape when he returned to the team.
Then this offseason, he hooked up with P-90X and after an offseason of training, seems to be in much better shape from the photos that have been released. While he isn't at an all-time best weight, his physique looks far more defined and toned than it did before, in addition to some pounds lost. Now down 20 pounds and listed as Green Bay's starting running back on the initial depth chart, there's plenty to like about Lacy this season.
If the added muscle and weight loss can help him pack more of a punch going through the hole and enough burst to get through holes more quickly, we could see a back much closer to what we saw in 2014. Lacy is also an underrated part of the Packers' passing game and undervalued in PPR leagues currently. In 2014 he had 42 receptions, 427 receiving yards and four receiving touchdowns.
As of now, Lacy's consensus average draft position, per FantasyPros, is right around the early 20s and the 10th-12th running back off the board. It's the perfect range given Lacy's risk and reward. Many of the elite receivers and running backs are gone, so fantasy owners take a chance on second-tier running backs and receivers who offer top-10 upside but could also falter whether due to injuries or just poor play.
If Lacy does suffer another injury or the weight loss still doesn't translate to success, Starks offers some intrigue in PPR leagues. While he should never be relied upon as a reliable starting running back in the NFL, he displayed he could work well out of the backfield last season with 43 receptions for 392 receiving yards and three receiving touchdowns. He has made improvements in pass protection and averaged 4.1 yards per carry last year, so there is some upside if Lacy went down. But even if that happens, Starks is best served as a bye week fill-in or a RB3 in PPR leagues if he became Green Bay's top running back.
Wide Receiver: Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Davante Adams
If Nelson can return next week as expected, after being placed on the PUP list with tendinitis in his left knee and looks healthy off the torn ACL in his right knee, then there is plenty of reason to believe Nelson can return to being a top-10 fantasy receiver. He is Rodgers' go-to weapon and we saw last season just how vital he was to Rodgers' success, so he should see plenty of targets to make up for time lost. Nelson has the 1,000-plus yards, 10-touchdown upside everyone wants out of their top receiver and a reasonable chance at reaching it.
Cobb might have been one of the most frustrating players for fantasy football owners last season. A year after he had 13 total touchdowns and nearly 1,300 receiving yards, fantasy expectations were sky high with the idea that Cobb would be flooded with targets when Nelson went down. He got just about as many targets in 2015 (129) as 2014 (126), but was limited to 829 receiving yards and six receiving touchdowns. It became clear that as the No.1 receiver, really the only legitimate NFL receiver on the field, defenses took Cobb away and he wasn't nearly as effective
There aren't any health concerns with Cobb that would scare owners to lower him down their draft boards. He is still a consensus top-20 receiver and his ADP sits around that range as well. The only question really depends on Nelson's health, because when he and Cobb are both on the field, they fit each other perfectly and balance each other out so the opposing defense can't focus all its efforts on one and leave the other on one-on-one coverage against an inferior opponent. Cobb may not see another 10-plus receiving touchdown season, but he could crack 1,200 total yards again and is an excellent WR2, especially in PPR leagues.
Oh how large the Adams hype train was in 2015. He shot up draft boards and was the talk of the town as coaches, players and fantasy football lovers raved about what he could do. Things did not go as planned, Adams battled ankle issues, the Packers brought in James Jones to add experience to the group and someone Rodgers could trust, but even when Adams did play it wasn't very impressive. He finished with just a 9.7 yards per catch average, 483 receiving yards, one touchdown and had six drops. In his first two NFL seasons, Adams has needed 88 receptions to reach 929 yards and four touchdowns with eight drops.
He could turn it around this season. Once again his coaching staff and quarterback are talking up how good he has performed in camp, he is healthy and will face less pressure as Green Bay's third receiver rather than its top boundary receiver last season. But there is too much risk right now to make him worth drafting amongst the top 60 wide receivers, players with similar or higher ADP like Sammie Coates, Kendall Wright and Bruce Ellington just have a lot more to offer fantasy owners. If Adams does pull through and put it together in his third season, then add him on the waiver wire during the year once he proves it.
As for Jeff Janis, well fantasy owners just might want to make sure he is on the 53-man roster when the season starts. Since as of now, that seems like its far from a foregone conclusion.
Tight End: Jared Cook, Richard Rodgers
Last season, Rodgers emerged as the biggest beneficiary from Nelson's absence from a fantasy standpoint. While he only posted 510 receiving yards, it was his eight touchdowns that helped him finish as a top-10 fantasy tight end on the season. His size is what made him a weapon inside the opponent's 10-yard line and as a result, he saw plenty of targets and made plenty of scoring trips, but that's all he was. He doesn't have the athleticism or great ability to separate in coverage over the middle of the field and he is extremely limited with yards after the catch, but in the end zone he can fight for those footballs.
Reports out of training camp indicate Rodgers has lost 20 pounds and is moves easier than he did before in his career, which is a good sign. He also certainly didn't get shorter this offseason, so his height will help him remain a red-zone target. But the return of Nelson and Green Bay signing Cook make it a pretty clear sign Rodgers' fantasy value will take a major hit.
Cook was always the ticket fantasy owners hoped would pay off one year. He had all the athleticism and size to be a great tight end, but stone hands, poor blocking, atrocious quarterback play and less than desirable route running led to him never living up to the hype. There's plenty of reason to be skeptical about Cook this season, people have grown tired of the "this is the year" line.
But if it were to ever happen, now would be the actual time. Cook going from Nick Foles and Case Keenum to Aaron Rodgers is the equivalent of going from a bike with no chain on the wheels to a camaro. Cook just needs to get open and hang onto the football, the ball will be there as long as he does that. He may not offer the fantasy floor that Richard Rodgers does, but he has significantly more upside and if Green Bay wants to open up there offense more, Cook is the better fit for that. But as of now, given all the risk and a past of poor fantasy play, Cook should not be one of the first 15 tight ends drafted.