Houston Texans 2016 Fantasy Football Preview

By Matt Johnson on Thursday, August 11th 2016
Houston Texans 2016 Fantasy Football Preview

2015 Review

Fantasy owners have always wanted to buy into the Texans' offense, but injury concerns at running back and a lack of consistent quarterback play meant they never lived up to the wishes. This past season proved to be stray from the norm fantasy owners were accustomed to in previous seasons. The Texans' passing game is what came through for fantasy owners as then quarterback Brian Hoyer had a 19-7 TD-INT ratio and completed 60.7 percent of his passes.

From a fantasy quarterback perspective he wasn't someone you could normally look to, but his ability to at least be competent was huge for DeAndre Hopkins. Really, Hopkins was the lone fantasy starter on the entire Texans' offense, Alfred Blue didn't show well as a starter when Arian Foster went down, Cecil Shorts and Nate Washington didn't produce enough to be on the fantasy radar and that was about all the Texans had going for them, but they changed that this offseason.

Quarterback: Brock Osweiler

Houston saw an opportunity in free agency to pick up the player who they view as a potential franchise quarterback for the organization. They shelled out $72 million to the 25-year-old quarterback to a four-year deal and the reigns have been handed over to him since he arrived to make this team his. In terms of experience, Osweiler never attempted more than 16 passes in a season before 2015. Due to Peyton Manning's poor play and an injury, he slid into the starting lineup and finished the season with 1,967 receiving yards, a 61.8 completion percentage and a 10-6 TD-INT ratio.

With a limited sample size, it's hard to get a better read for how he will perform now that teams have had an offseason to game plan for him. In terms of weapons around him, he has a very nice supporting cast with Hopkins, one of the best receivers in football, as his go-to in the passing game. Meanwhile, Lamar Miller gives him a serious threat in the running game that opposing defenses have to game plan against, which will make Osweiler's job easier. While the Texans were more of a passing team last year, Bill O'Brien has a track record with strong commitements made to the running game and that should come back in 2016 with the addition of Miller. That said, Osweiler makes for a nice QB2 or fill-in, matchup play who could finish the year with 25 touchdowns and over 4,000 yards.

Running Back: Lamar Miller and Alfred Blue

Fantasy owners were tortured last year by what happened to Miller. As a Dolphin, we saw so many splashes of fantasy gold, but the Dolphins never fully committed to feeding him the football like a workhorse running back and thus the numbers and opportunity never all came together. It's why Miller hit free agency looking for a change of scenery. He found the right fit in Houston, a team that was committed to upgrading its offense and a coach who wanted the offense to be established on a dominant running game.

What makes Miller such an appealing player is not only his outstanding ability just as a running back, but he also had nearly 50 receptions last season despite the Dolphins underutilizing him. That won't be a problem in Houston, as he should see plenty of carries to make things happen behind its offensive line and will remain on the field in passing situations. Going from 240-ish carries to 300-plus is a tremendous boom for Miller and a big boom for fantasy owners, who have their expectations set on Miller coming through as an RB1.

While we still aren't completely sure how he will hold up to 20-plus touches a game over a 16-game season, Miami also kept Miller's body fairly fresh and saved him from an excessive amount of hits as he went into free agency. Now the 25-year-old can spend his prime as the centerpiece of the Dolphins' offense and a darling of the fantasy community who should finally be everything they've ever wanted.

Blue had an incredible opportunity last season, but gave Houston a large enough stretch of games to realize he was not going to be a starting caliber of running back in the NFL. If Houston had signed a lower tier running back to possibly do a 60-40 touches split with Blue, than there would be a case for some fantasy value there. But Miller is going to be "the guy" in Houston and as long as he stays healthy, Blue will battle it out with Tyler Ervin for whatever scrapes of touches are left sitting out there. Some may consider Blue a handcuff option, but that even seems risky given he couldn't step up when injuries pushed him to the front of the line last year.

Wide Receiver: DeAndre Hopkins, Jaelen Strong, Will Fuller

Hopkins was always a highly intriguing receiver since he came out of the draft, but it never came fully together stats wise because of poor quarterback play. While Hopkins numbers progressed nicely from his rookie season, 52 receptions for 802 yards and two touchdowns, to 76 receptions for 1,210 yards and six touchdowns in 2014, the biggest jump came last year. He hauled in 111 passes for over 1,500 yards and found the end zone 11 times. He was without a doubt one of the best wide receivers in the game both talent wise and statistically. 

There should be plenty of love for Hopkins again this season, especially with the likely upgrade in quarterback from Hoyer to Osweiler. But there's also reason why you shouldn't expect the same numbers from Hopkins this season.

He was the third-most targeted wide receiver last season and while that doesn't mean as much given he was the team's only real receiving threat and just shows how much this team used him, the total number needs to be separated into two halves. In Hopkins first 10 games of the season he had 135 targets as the Texans went with a pass-heavy offense thanks to a struggling running game, the team had to move away from its typical bread and butter. The numbers and targets were there for Hopkins, so naturally he was a star.

But over his last six games, Hopkins finished with just 57 targets over that span. Houston went back to its roots and committed much more to the running game,  they were 4-2 over that stretch and this was all before the addition of Miller. This isn't all to say that this season Hopkins won't still be a high-end wide receiver, he can be a top-five fantasy receiver. But he likely won't see another 190-plus targets and might turn in numbers more along the lines of 1,400-plus receiving yards and 8-10 touchdowns.

Strong enters training camp with a great opportunity to emerge as Houston's No.2 wide receiver. As a rookie last season, the third-round pick saw little action on the field and finished with just 14 receptions for 161 yards, though he did have three touchdowns. He reported to training camp this year in much better shape and was listed as a starter on the team's first depth chart to begin the preseason. Given the attention opposing teams should pay to Hopkins in coverage and the additional focus they will have to give to the running game, Strong has the opportunity to see enough targets to put up 650-700 yards and six touchdowns.

For those that don't buy into Strong this year, their attention likely lands on Fuller. Houston selected him with its first-round pick this year and that usually means a team expects that rookie to make a big impact early. He has the easy ability to stretch the field with his speed and make the home run plays, though recently Texans' reporter John McClain said he had impressed coaches with his route-running ability. 

There's certainly enough to like about him, especially since people are drawn to wide receivers with a sub-4.35 40-yard dash. But he is still a rookie, he will have to adapt to physical cornerbacks at the next level and  in college he had a problem with dropped passes. He offers some fantasy upside for sure, but Strong is the better play as we head into training camp.

Tight End: Ryan Griffin and C.J. Fiedorowicz

There really isn't much to talk about here from a fantasy perspective. Last season on a team that didn't have a running game or a consistent back who could catch passes out of the backfield and lacked secondary receivers who could play major roles, Griffin and Fiedorowicz combined for 37 receptions, 418 receiving yards and three touchdowns. Even if that was one player, it would hardly land that player on the fantasy radar and given the upgrades Houston has made and the fact that it's two tight ends, Griffin and Fiedorowicz can remain far off the fantasy radar, very far off of it.

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