The Houston Texans (11-1) travel to Gillette Stadium to take on the New England Patriots (9-3) in a game with huge playoff implications. In fact, it could very well decide who has the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC. I am pretty sure that both the Indianapolis Colts (9-4) and Denver Broncos (10-3) are also taking an extra long look at this one.
Tom Brady boasts a 17-0 record at home in December dating back to 2003, while Houston hasn't exactly torn it up under Matt Schaub, losing six of their 10 road games in the final month of the season under the leadership of the veteran quarterback.
Outside of postseason seeding implications, this game also has a huge fantasy impact to it. It is the final game of the initial week of the fantasy playoffs in most leagues. This means that the likes of Tom Brady and Arian Foster may determine who moves on and who goes home.
Let's take a look at this awesome matchup through a pure fantasy lens right now.
Pro Bowl cornerback Johnathan Joseph will be active for this game after missing the last couple outings with hamstring and groin injuries. He should be lining up against Brandon Lloyd, which makes the latter a questionable fantasy start. Houston has given up over 350 passing yards per outing in the last three games after ranking in the top five in that category through the first nine games of the season. Joseph's return should help alleviate the Texans secondary issues.
But this doesn't mean that the likes of Wes Welker and Aaron Hernandez won't have big games.
Houston's safeties have been a major problem this season as opposing offenses have had a tremendous amount of success going up the middle in the passing game. Couple that with injuries to both Bradie James and Brian Cushing from the linebacker positions and New England should have a tremendous amount of success going to Hernandez in this game. I expect the talented young tight end to rack up a minimum of eight receptions for 100 yards and a score.
Additionally, Welker shouldn't have a huge problem lining up against opposing safeties and linebackers in the slot. He should be a huge coup in PPR leagues, but will struggle putting up six with Hernandez in the lineup and ready to go.
Brady is one of about five must start QB1 options thus far this season. It really doesn't matter who the future Hall of Famer is going up against, he needs to be in your lineup. Couple that with his recent track record and success at home in December and you have the making for something special as it relates to his fantasy production tonight.
That being said, there are other factors that could come into play here. J.J. Watt joined Von Miller and Aldon Smith as the three primary contenders for the NFL Defensive Player of the Year Award. Watt leads the Texans with 15 passes defended, mostly through batted balls at the line. If Brady is unable to find throwing lanes because of pressure coming from the furious pass rusher he could actually struggle in this one. A lot of his success is going to be dependent on offensive tackles Nate Solder and Sebastian Vollmer as well as extra blockers to Watt's side.
Houston's defense does rank second in the NFL against the run at under 90 yards per outing. Opposing running backs are averaging a substandard 4.1 yards and have scored just two touchdowns against one of the best front seven's in the entire league. On that note, I am not expecting much from Stevan Ridley in tonight's matchup. The one true wildcard here could be fellow second-year running back Shane Vereen, who hasn't seen much action recently but could help you out in a bind, especially receiving out of the backfield if the Patriots are forced to go away from an ineffective running game. Either way, neither seem like legit fantasy producers tonight.
As it relates to Houston's offense, there are a few different solid options here. Arian Foster will be going up against a surprising Patriots' rush defense that ranks No. 8 in the NFL. He leads the league with 283 rush attempts and is showing some signs of wear and tear at this late point in the season. Houston has attempted to lighten his workload to the tune of 34 total attempts over the last two games. This doesn't mean that he won't play an integral part in tonight's all-important matchup. Look for something to the tune of 25 touches for nearly 100 yards and a score. That makes him an obvious RB1 option in standard leagues.
What interests me the most in this specific game is Andre Johnson, who has torched opposing defenses to the tune of 28 receptions for over 500 yards in the last two games. He, however, has struggled getting into the end zone once again this season and has recorded just three touchdowns. I don't expect Johnson to put up an elite state line due to his issues with getting into the end zone. While he might give you 10 receptions for 150 yards, don't expect a score.
Matt Schaub is a borderline QB1 option in 12-team standard leagues. He has put up over 3,000 yards and 21 touchdowns in 12 games this season. It is important to take into account that 527 yards and five scores came in one game alone. He is, however, facing a 29th ranked Patriots' pass defense. If Houston looks to limit Foster's carries, I can easily see Schaub putting the ball up 40 times, gaining over 300 yards and throwing for two or three touchdowns. That obviously makes him a solid RB1 option tonight.