The Buffalo Bills are shaping up to have quite a few offensive weapons now, after acquiring Mike Williams from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for just a sixth-round draft pick.
That now gives Buffalo C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson in the backfield, and Williams Stevie Johnson and Robert Woods as the main receivers—which isn’t bad at all. But where does Williams come into play in the offense? It remains to be seen.
ESPN’s Mike Rodak said it is a possibility the Bills could move on from Johnson, who is set to give the Bills an $8.5 million cap hit this season, but he also called it a “long shot.” So, let’s go with the assumption that Buffalo keeps Johnson.
In that case, Williams is a very capable No. 2 receiver, as he showed a year ago in Tampa Bay. Williams was injured for most of 2013, and only made 22 receptions in six games (he did score twice, however).
But in 2012, Williams played in every game and had a huge year opposite Vincent Jackson, catching 63 passes for 996 yards and nine touchdowns. Williams also scored 11 times during his rookie season.
This is a good fit for Williams, who played for Bills’ head coach Doug Marrone in college at Syracuse.
With Spiller and Jackson, the Bills don’t throw the ball as often as most teams. Last season, they had about a 1:1 pass-to-run ratio, running the ball 24 more times. With E.J. Manuel (presumably) under center, it gives the Bills another running option as long as he’s healthy.
But, when they do throw the ball, Williams can serve as a second option behind Johnson.
In 2012, Williams was targeted in Tampa Bay 21 less times than Jackson, but caught 50 percent of the passes he was thrown, according to our premium stats.
That year, Williams caught five of his nine touchdowns in three-wide receiver sets, which is what Buffalo could be running most of the time with Johnson, Woods and Williams. Even last year without Williams, the Bills threw it far more in three-wide receiver sets than with any other combination of receivers, attempting 313 passes with three receivers and 160 with just two. Last season, Johnson wasn’t much of a red zone target, only catching seven passes inside the opponent’s 20, while in 2012, Williams had 14 in the red zone, six of them for touchdowns, according to ESPN.
Most defenses will focus on Johnson near the goal line, and Williams could be the guy Manuel looks to if Spiller or Jackson isn’t attempting to run it in.
The Bills will also likely throw it at least slightly more if Manuel can stay healthy. Thad Lewis had better statistical games than Manuel last season filling in for the rookie when Manuel was injured, but Manuel at least provides a threat with his legs Manuel averaged more yards per game than the other Bills quarterbacks.
Still, Manuel is a young quarterback, and there’s no guarantee that the Bills won’t go after another quarterback in the draft.
So does Williams fight into the Bills’ scheme nicely? Yes. But does he change it a lot? No.
Williams can be a red zone target for Manuel while Johnson remains the top receiving target. Still, Buffalo is going to be a run-first team as long as Spiller and Jackson are healthy.
The Bills also had a big showing at Towson University running back Terrance West’s pro day on Monday, bringing more scouts (four) than any other team, which could mean they are interested in taking West on the second day of the draft.
Even without a rookie back, Manuel, Spiller and Jackson make for a strong rushing threat, and Williams isn’t the type of receiver who can swing the offensive scheme that much. But he will fit in nicely and will at least give Manuel (or whoever is playing quarterback) another weapon to use.