In the National Football League, quarterback is the most valuable position on the field. The quarterback is the field general, the shot-caller and the team’s leader.

That importance hasn’t necessarily translated to fantasy football over the past few years. In today’s average 12-team fantasy football league, people just assume there is a drop-off after the main guys: Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees. Sure, landing one of those two guys would be nice, but they’re value is so bloated at this point owners have to pick them in the late second or early third round.

But with a lack of depth at running back this season, and a plethora of wide receivers who can score double-digit points every week, fantasy owners will only truly succeed in their draft if they wait on drafting a quarterback until the fourth or fifth round.

To prove this, let’s look at two different hypothetical scenarios in a 12-team draft. In one, this imaginary fantasy owner drafts Rodgers or Brees in the early rounds and settles for a lower-tier running back in the later round. In the other one, the owner waits on a quarterback and picks up running backs and a No. 1 wide receiver first. For the sake of continuity, both situations will have the team picking sixth in a standard snake draft.

Drafting a QB in the second round

In the first round, at the sixth pick, most teams will go for a running back in the first round simply because of the demand for top-tier backs this season.

According to the average draft positions compiled by My Fantasy League, that would mean Trent Richardson goes at No. 6. When the next pick comes around in the second round, the owner decides to pick up Rodgers as his quarterback, and takes him with the No. 19 overall pick. That is only one spot higher than the ADP for Rodgers currently.

Then, in the third round, the owner picks up his second running back at the 30th pick in the draft. That would give the owner someone like DeMarco Murray or Darren McFadden.  Let’s say the owner goes with the higher upside and takes McFadden. That still leaves the owner without a No. 1 wide receiver, and in the fourth round with the No. 43. The ADP says that would leave the owner with New York Giants’ wide receiver Hakeem Nicks.

At the end of the fourth round, the owner now has Richardson, McFadden, Rodgers and Nicks.

Drafting a QB in the fourth round

The same owner is in a different draft. This time, he decides to wait on taking a quarterback until after he’s filled out his running back position and found himself a No. 1 receiver.  With the first two picks, the owner takes back-to-back running backs, and still gets Richardson, but this time takes Matt Forte with the No. 19 pick.

Then, in the third round the owner picks up his receiver with the No. 30 pick and could either get Larry Fitzgerald or Andre Johnson. Since Johnson has a better quarterback than Fitzgerald, he takes Johnson. Now, the owner still needs a quarterback but hangs back until the No. 43 pick. Cam Newton might be available, but he is going at the No. 40 pick on average. Tom Brady is more likely to be there, with ADP having Brady going at the No. 47 pick. So, let’s say the owner takes Brady as his quarterback.

Now, the same owner has Richardson, Forte, Johnson and Brady. The owner goes home that night and compares his two teams.

In comparison

The owner sees he has Richardson on both teams, who will put up points if he can stay healthy, considering he is the go-to guy on the Cleveland Browns’ offense.

On the first team, he has McFadden as his second running back. McFadden has never played a full season in the NFL, but runs for a ton of yards when he is in the lineup. If he gets 13 games out of McFadden this season, he’ll at least run for 700 yards and he’ll maybe score three or four touchdowns.

On the second team, Forte is his second running back. While it seems as if Forte has an injury problem, he didn’t miss a single game in his first three seasons, and only missed one game last season. Not only has McFadden run for 1,000 yards in three out of his five years in the league, but he can also catch the ball out of the backfield, making 44 catches last season for 340 yards and a touchdown, compared to McFadden who had 258 receiving yards last season.

At wide receiver, it’s Nicks vs. Johnson. Nicks has never played in a full season in his career, but he did play in 13 games last season, catching 53 balls for 692 yards. However, during the 2010 and 2011 seasons, Nicks had over 1,000 receiving yards and had a combined 18 touchdowns in those two seasons. Compare that to Johnson who over the past five seasons has put up 1,200 yards or more in four of those seasons and scored eight or more touchdowns in three of them.

Finally, he compares the quarterbacks. Yes, Brady lost Wes Welker to free agency, doesn’t have Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski’s health is a question. But he has made average receivers above-average in the past, and he has Danny Amendola filling in the Welker role. Over the past two seasons, Brady has averaged more yards than Rodgers, but Rodgers has averaged five more touchdowns per season than Brady. If the owner’s leagues use ESPN standard scoring, Rodgers gains a 20-point advantage over Brady through his touchdowns, but Brady has a 22-point advantage over Rodgers in passing yards. Rodgers and Brady both threw the same amount of interceptions last season as well.

Brady and Rodgers are a wash, and the owner ended up with better running backs and a better No. 1 receiver in his second draft when he waited to take a quarterback.