In what has to be considered horrible news for the San Francisco 49ers, star wide receiver Michael Crabtree tore his Achilles at OTA's on Tuesday and is going to be out at least six months. While head coach Jim Harbaugh indicated that this wasn't a season-ending injury, the earliest Crabtree is likely to return is late-November.
Needless to say, this is going to impact San Francisco's offense with Colin Kaepernick entering his first full season as its starting quarterback.
General manager Trent Baalke did go out there and bring in some additional weapons in the offseason after it was readily apparent the 49ers were relying on Crabtree too much last season. Anquan Boldin now takes over as their No. 1 wide receiver with a multitude of questions after that.
Will Kyle Williams and Mario Manningham return from season-ending injuries? Can 2012 first-round pick A.J. Jenkins produce like an actual first rounder after failing to catch a single pass last season? Will under-the-radar fourth-round pick Quinton Patton exceed expectations? Does this impact San Francisco's status as the one true Super Bowl favorite? What about fantasy football?
I will answer the following questions below:
Post-Crabtree Depth Chart
I will go on record right now indicating that Patton will be San Francisco's No. 2 wide receiver when camp breaks in early-September. Of course this will depend on the return to health of Manningham. If the veteran receiver is fully healthy during training camp, he'll likely be the starter. That being said, reports indicate that Manningham is currently behind schedule in his recovery from the ACL tear and might not be ready to go in late-July. That'll definitely put him behind the proverbial eight ball.
As a former first-round pick, Jenkins MUST step up and perform to a level that nears that status. San Francisco cannot sit there and baby him anymore. If Jenkins is able to step up and perform up to level, he'll help fill the void. The good news is that Jenkins has been working with Kaepernick since the Super Bowl ended and has added eight pounds of muscle to what was a slim frame in 2012.
Williams took part in OTA's on Tuesday and Wednesday. This is some great news for San Francisco, especially after the Crabtree news broke. The Arizona State product hasn't really progressed over the past couple seasons and needs to actually prove his worth outside of special teams. Injuries plagued Williams in 2012, but the excuses end there.
Patton is one of the most pro-ready wide receivers of the 2013 NFL Draft class and should be able to make an immediate impact. While some concluded that he wouldn't be part of San Francisco's rotation after he was drafted, this changes a great deal following Crabtree's injury. I expect the Louisiana Tech product to step up as a possession guy opposite another possession guy in Boldin. The issue here is that San Francisco needs someone to stretch the field. Will that be Williams or Jenkins?
As it is, don't expect a knee-jerk reaction from Trent Baalke and Co. They have already pretty much dismissed the idea of bringing Randy Moss back. Rumors are swirling about a Brandon Lloyd homecoming, which makes some sense. He met with San Francisco last offseason before signing with New England and would represent that down-field threat San Francisco currently misses.
It is, however, important to note that Crabtree was technically the same type of possession guy (with more upside) as Boldin. So, the impact of this loss might be a bit less in the grand scheme of things.
Boldin's Impact
I bet San Francisco is extremely happy it acquired the veteran receiver from Baltimore the day before the new league year began. Without his presence on this roster, the 49ers would be in grave danger in the ultra competitive NFC. He will lower the blow of losing Crabtree for an extended period of time and can be a marginal No.1-type receiver during the window that Crabtree is out. Look for him to receive a bunch of targets in Crabtree's absense. Not much more to say here outside of the fact that I expect Kaepernick and Boldin to mesh really well during training camp. The drop off from Crabtree's production this past season shouldn't be too great.
San Francisco's Super Bowl Status
Nothing has really changed here. The 49ers are still one of the top teams in the National Football League and losing a top-tier wide receiver for the first couple months of the season doesn't change that. Does anyone really expect this team to fail to play up to playoff level without Crabtree on the field prior to late-November? I honestly don't see that.
One thing could change in the NFC West. San Francisco and Seattle are neck and neck, even after Crabtree's injury. The balance of power may have shifted to the Pacific Northwest, but Seattle isn't without its issues right now.
Bruce Irvin will miss the first four games of the season due to a PED suspension. Marshawn Lynch has been absent from OTA's this week and could be facing a four-game suspension himself. Chris Clemons is likely out until December and Michael Bennett should be limited during the early part of the year.
Even if Seattle does overtake San Francisco as the favorite to win the NFC West following Crabtree's injury, there is no reason to believe that the 49ers are not a lock for the postseason at this point.
Fantasy Impact
Huge. Some were drawing conclusions about Crabtree being a WR1 option in re-draft leagues. He was already considered a top-tier receiver in dynasty leagues. One changes, the other doesn't. Crabtree will now be an afterthought in re-draft leagues, which opens up other 49ers' receivers to make an impact.
Boldin automatically becomes a great WR2 option in re-draft leagues, while Patton should get more play in rookie-pool drafts.
The major change here is what to expect from Vernon Davis, who will need to step up and receive the necessary targets to be a top-tier TE1 option in every fantasy format. Look for Davis to reach 1,000 yards and double-digit scores in 2012, which puts him right in the conversation behind the truly elite (if there are any) fantasy tight ends.
You can also expect rookie second-round pick Vance McDonald to get some play later in re-draft leagues and much higher than originally anticipated in dynasty drafts.
I personally don't believe that this injury impacts Kaepernick too much from a fantasy perspective. He still has a ton of weapons to throw to and San Francisco will find either in-house replacements or a veteran to help with depth. I wouldn't be too worried about Kaepernick's fantasy viability. Still expect 4,000-plus total yards and over 30 total touchdowns from Kaepernick.