Seems like a lifetime ago that Geno Smith was lighting up defenses in college as the star quarterback of West Virginia, doesn’t it? It even seems like forever ago that Geno was supposed to go number one overall to the Chiefs. Funny how much things can change in a year. But with that extra year, does Geno now become a viable fantasy football quarterback? Your rapid reaction will tell you “Not at all,” but let’s take a deeper look, shall we?
Geno’s 2013 Campaign
Geno’s rookie year was actually pretty putrid, no surprise there. His roller coaster rookie season had some pretty nice games, but also a ton of really crappy ones. He had ten games (TEN!), in which he finished with 55% completion percentage or lower. On top of that, only four games in his rookie season did not end with at least one turnover. To keep the whole “make fun of Geno with awful stats” trend going, he had seven games in which his Quarterback Rating was 65 or below. Just to finish off this fun little bullying game, he had 21 interceptions to pair nicely with six fumbles. Yikes.
But, as Jet fans discovered very quickly, the good comes with the bad when it comes to Geno. Week five against the Falcons, he went 16-for-20 for 199 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions en route to a 30-28 victory. Overall, he had five games in which he scored 20 or more fantasy points. The inconsistencies that have made Geno famous since college, followed him to the pros. The Jets alternated wins and losses every week until week 11. That’s almost a cool stat to have.
But, this is a new year, and everyone deserves a second chance. The Jets made some nice additions on offense, so is this the season Geno Smith breaks out for Gang Green?
The 2014 Geno
The Jets tried to surround Smith with talent in 2014 to help him succeed, or to see if he busts again. Either one works. They added a threat on the outside in Eric Decker, a good running back in Chris Johnson and even gave him a mentor in Michael Vick, who may actually just take the job right from under Smith’s nose.
Smith was a top-20 fantasy quarterback last season by the smallest of margins. So, if he was top-20 last season with the year he had, he should be what, top-15? Top Ten? Not even close. All the quarterbacks who ranked ahead of them will have a tough time falling out, with maybe the exception of Alex Smith, Joe Flacco, and Ryan Tannehill. But, if you take a glimpse outside the top-20, you’ll notice some very large names who are surefire top-20 potential. Aaron Rodgers is now fully healthy, after missing six games last season. He’ll be back in the top five after ranking 21st last year. Eli Manning could very well return to form this season, and push for a top twenty spot. Another guy is Jay Cutler in Chicago, who has two studs on the outside and a great running back behind him. Because of all this. Geno Smith is almost certain to drop in the ranks.
What should expectations be for Geno now that he is in his second year? Now he knows the offense, so that’s not really an excuse and even he knows that. Smith was quoted in a recent article as saying,
“"There's no comparison. Last year I was a rookie. I was learning. I'm still learning, but I was learning the offense. I know the offense. Now, it's about perfecting it. There's really no comparison. It's completely night and day."
So he knows what is expected of him this year. That’s good. What do the fans expect? On a poll of 874 people on GangGreenNation.com, 597 people replied that they only expect to see the offense improve “somewhat” and that “there are still missing parts.” That’s not exactly thrilling news. According to the same poll, 11 people replied, “I have no vested interest in the Jets, I just like polls.” What exact relevance that has, we are still trying to decipher.
We shouldn’t necessarily say Geno is a bust just yet. Hell, even Troy Aikman had nine touchdowns against 18 interceptions, with just 1,749 yards en route to an 0-11 rookie year. But there is major cause for concern, especially if he doesn’t pan out this season. In terms of fantasy, he shouldn’t be drafted. If you are in a dynasty league, Smith could be an option in the very late rounds if you need a quarterback. Other than that, he should be held to waiver-wire status until he proves himself.