For the past three seasons prior to 2013, Arian Foster, running back for the Houston Texans has been a stud, a solid RB1, ranking in the top five for running backs, rewarding his fantasy owners generously.
Unfortunately for those who drafted Foster in 2013, he exited the season early, due to lingering injuries that eventually lead to a back surgery. In the eight games he played, he had 121 carries for 542 rush yards and just one rushing touchdown. Obviously impacted by injury, his numbers weren’t exactly on course for a top-five performance.
The burning question stands entering into 2014. Is Foster, who claims to be feeling great, and has recovered from his back surgery, worth a RB1 draft pick, or is it time to give up on himm? A few things to consider when evaluating Foster’s 2014 value come into factor.
Ben Tate, who was Foster’s go-to backup will not be around to split the carries this season. Even though the Texans have running backs Andre Brown, and Dennis Johnson, I don’t see the team giving Tate’s share of the carries to them, so ultimately, Foster will get the bulk share of the touches.
It would be expecting a lot to think that Foster will carry the ball 300-plus times like he did in 2010 and 2012, but he could realistically get 250 touches and at his 4.5 average yards per carry, Foster could cross the 1,000 yard mark. Whether the touchdowns flow with the carries will be the true determination of his fantasy value, particularly in standard fantasy football leagues. A bit of a red-flag here, which is noted above, is that in Foster’s eight games in 2013, he only had one rushing touchdown, which doesn't exactly scream RB1 material.
The Texans’ quarterback situation will also factor into Foster’s fantasy value in 2014. New head coach Bill O’Brien has named veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick to start for the team. As we all know, Matt Schaub is miles away now in Oakland, and Case Keenum, proved to be overall ineffective as the teams' quarterback. Fitzpatrick isn’t exactly QB1 quality, but he is consistent, and since Foster is an experienced pass catcher as well, the addition of Fitzpatrick to the team should increase Foster’s receptions.
Andre Johnson, the Texans’ long-time wide receiver of 12 years, could also affect Foster’s production in 2014. Johnson has been a hold-out in team activities up to this time, and he is making it a well-known fact that he is not happy with his current team. While it is expected that he will stay with the team, it is not definite yet. If for some reason Johnson calls it quits with the Texans, Foster could be up for even more targets on short passes, which would strengthen his fantasy value specifically in points per reception, (PPR) leagues.
Realistically speaking though at this time, we must assume Johnson will stay with the Texans. When it comes to Foster catching passes, his targets should be somewhat higher that the 30 he averaged in his last couple of seasons, but not the 60 he averaged back in 2010 and 2011. Likely, he will see 40 or so passes come his way amounting in approximately 350 receiving yards and a couple of receiving touchdowns.
In ranking Foster, who is entering into his sixth NFL year, as a running back to draft in 2014, I would have to conclude that he fits more into an RB2 profile in standard leagues, with RB1 potential in PPR formats. Therefore, if you can acquire Foster in Round 2 with RB2 expectations, he makes a fair choice if chosen accordingly.
If Foster remains healthy, the best case scenario is he goes off the charts for huge numbers and as your second-round draft pick your investment increases in value. The realistic case is that Foster rewards RB2 numbers which is exactly where you drafted him.