The Jacksonville Jaguars are in the throes of an intensive rebuild. They got a new owner at the end of 2011, and this last offseason they replaced the majority of their coaching staff. New general manager David Caldwell (Atlanta) and new head coach Gus Bradley (Seattle) both hail from organizations that prioritized running the football, and they selected a proficient run-blocking offensive tackle with the second overall pick in the most recent draft, so they’ll presumably focus on their run game.
New offensive coordinator Jedd Fisch is a former wide receivers and quarterbacks coach, and he most recently coordinated the Miami Hurricanes’ offense. He runs an up-tempo offense that consistently features the running backs in the passing game, meaning Jacksonville running backs will probably be their most valuable fantasy players, relatively speaking.
The biggest question mark will be the quarterback position. Blaine Gabbert has been informed that the job is his to lose, and his track record indicates that he’s not a viable fantasy option, even in two-QB leagues. His fantasy ceiling in 2013 is probably a capable starting quarterback that doesn’t belong on any but the deepest rosters.
Maurice Jones-Drew, Running Back
Jones-Drew is probably the most talented player on the offensive side of the ball, and, assuming last year’s health issues remain last year, he should push 300 carries. He’s never averaged fewer than 4.2 yards per carry, despite playing on some pretty poor teams, so fantasy owners should do the math and target him.
He’s also been a consistent contributor in the passing game, averaging nearly three receptions each game for his whole career. With Fisch’s propensity for running back receptions, the stubby workhorse should expect close to 25 total touches each game, thus resuming his role as an upper-tier RB1.
2013 Stat Projections: 1,350 rushing yards, nine rushing touchdowns, 45 receptions, 375 receiving yards, two receiving touchdowns, 1,725 total yards and 11 total touchdowns
Cecil Shorts, Wide Receiver
For Jaguars’ fans, Shorts was probably the sole bright spot in an otherwise dismal 2012 season. The second-year player burst onto the scene to the tune of 55 receptions for 975 yards and seven touchdowns. He proved himself a lethal deep threat who really blossomed under Chad Henne after Gabbert was sideline with a torn labrum in his shoulder. His chemistry with Gabbert is yet to be determined. He’s a talented receiver, and the unquestioned number-one target on the team with Justin Blackmon suspended for the first four games of the season. If nothing else, he should accumulate stats purely by volume of touches.
2013 Stat Projections: 60 receptions, 950 receiving yards and nine touchdowns
Marcedes Lewis, Tight End
Lewis leapt into fantasy relevance with 700 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2010, and that’s kept him on fantasy rosters ever since. Amusingly, that’s far and away the best season of his career, with his 2012 year of 540 yards and four touchdowns coming in a distant second. At 6’6” and almost 280 pounds, he’s one of the best blocking tight ends in the league, and I’d expect the Jaguars to make good use of that. However, his size also contributes to his potential as a play-action and red-zone threat, so he should continue to get just enough attention to stay on the fringes of fantasy rosters.
2013 Stat Projections: 45 receptions, 515 receiving yards and five touchdowns
Justin Blackmon, Wide Receiver
The 2012 first-round pick has been a bit of a disappointment thus far. In his short career, he’s had two DUI’s and a violation of the NFL’s substance-abuse policy, the latter offense earning him a four-game suspension to start the 2013 season. Since the new coaching staff brings no promise of loyalty, if he doesn’t buck up, he’ll find himself staring up from the bottom of the aggressive roster turnover Gus Bradley inherited from the Seahawks.
Blackmon’s 2012 wasn’t terrible from a statistical perspective: 64 receptions for 865 yards and five touchdowns. His college years with Oklahoma State gave him experience in an up-tempo offense with a lot of screens and zone-beater routes, so he can fit into Fisch’s offense well, if he’ll focus and buy in. Missing four games obviously hurts his value, and it affects his chemistry with the quarterback, so expect a drop-off in overall production.
2013 Stat Projections: 48 receptions, 615 receiving yards and three touchdowns
Final Thoughts
Jacksonville’s offense will have two intriguing X-factors that could end up as valuable waiver wire pickups. Both are incredibly athletic rookies. Wide receiver Ace Sanders is a spunky little fireplug. He’s astonishingly quick and absurdly difficult to tackle, much like the St. Louis Rams’ first-round pick Tavon Austin. He doesn’t have nearly the refined game as a receiver, but as the Jaguars’ punt returner from day one, he should contribute enough special teams value to augment his boom-or-bust numbers as a bubble-screen specialist.
The other potential fantasy stud is college quarterback/running back Denard Robinson. The former Michigan Wolverine could be an absolutely devastating running back in a zone scheme similar to the one he ran in college. If Jacksonville isn't afraid to get creative with him, he’d make a fantastic flex player. He worked out at the combine as a wide receiver, and running back would fit him most naturally. If he gets 6-10 touches a game from the backfield, in bubble screens, and from the slot, he could very well have games with 40-60 total yards and a touchdown or two. For a waiver wire pickup, that’s gold.
And here’s a final nugget regarding Robinson. Jones-Drew is a free agent in 2014. He’ll be 29, and coming off an injury and an ugly contract dispute. If he or the Jaguars decide he’s going to walk, I’d be confident rolling with Robinson as the feature back. His game has shades of Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy, and Chris Johnson, and if he can reach even two-thirds of their production, he'll be a terrific dynasty value pick.