In the fast-paced world we live in where it’s all about “What have you done for me lately?” we tend to rush to judgment over whatever the most recent hot news is. This same problem occurs in the NFL Draft community, every week we talk about college prospects who saw their stock rise and fall off of the performance of one game. While players and coaches have to take everything one game at a time, it’s important for scouts and draftniks to look at one game but not let it cloud the overall picture of a player.
A perfect example of this occurred last week when the Oregon Ducks took on the Stanford Cardinals. It was a primetime Thursday Night College Football matchup on ESPN, and a chance for draft writers and scouts to see some of the best prospects the Pac-12 has to offer. The man everyone had their eye on was Oregon redshirt sophomore quarterback Marcus Mariota.
Coming into the game Mariota was amongst the leaders for the Heisman Trophy, the Ducks were undefeated and the No.2 team in the country while Mariota had compiled 29 total touchdowns, nine coming on the ground. Mariota was seen by several draftniks including myself as a potential top-10 selection in May, and this was the big game where he could prove himself to those more skeptical of his potential. Instead the Cardinals cruised to a win against the Ducks and Mariota had his worst game of the season. It was evidence for those that don’t believe he is a first-round talent that he has benefited from an easy schedule and his poor performance is clearly an indicator that he isn’t worthy of a first-round selection. While every game is important and should be reviewed and analyzed, moving him down after one game is too much of an overreaction.
Yes, Mariota had his worst game of the season and during the game we saw the big questions that still face him. His accuracy varied throughout the game, including an underthrow when he had a wide-open wide receiver for what would have been a touchdown. He wasn’t getting the ball out as quickly and what may have cost him most was an unwillingness to get rid of the football. He has been haunted by it all season, he holds onto the ball too long when a play is dead and doesn’t throw the ball away to save the loss of yardage. He also has to show improvement on securing the football and make sure defenders can’t punch it out as they have done several times this season.
It was a bad game for Mariota, but it was also the perfect storm of everything that could go wrong in this game. Before the game even kicked off reports came out that Mariota was playing with a sprained MCL and while those weren’t confirmed he played with a brace on his left knee. You could clearly see it was bothering him during the game, even when there was wide open running lanes he just moved around gingerly in the pocket and didn’t take off and run. The injury took away Mariota’s ability to run which left Stanford to only have to stop him as a passer.
Stanford is known for smart, physical football and they are 18th in the country in points allowed per game. If a significant injury on the road against one of the best defenses in the country wasn’t enough, then you can take a look at the turnovers.
De’Anthony Thomas wasn’t nearly as dynamic in the game and he fumbled the ball inside Stanford’s five-yard line.
Some will see these as excuses but they are important factors that influenced this game and Mariota’s performance, and have to be accounted for just as Mariota’s inconsistent accuracy and multiple fumbles when he could have thrown the ball away.
You have to account for everything when evaluating any player but even more so at the quarterback position. Mariota had his worst game of the season at the worst possible time and because of it the Ducks will likely not make it to the BCS National Championship. But this was a bad game, something every single player who has played at any level has gone through. Andrew Luck struggled in 2011 against Oregon or even more recently look at his awful performance this past week in a loss to the St. Louis Rams. If one game really changes the perspective of a player that much, there should be a new projected number one pick every week.
I would be a fool to not admit Mariota has much to improve on and we saw his flaws against Stanford. If he would have thrown for four touchdowns in a blowout win I would still have him as my second quarterback in the 2014 class. Overreacting to a single game can be dangerous when it comes to evaluations and suddenly dropping a player over it is jumping the gun. Mariota should bounce back with three games to go in the regular season, so maybe if he performs well he will “jump” back up again for everyone who moved him down.