Just How Good Can the Steelers Pass Offense be?

By Jonathan Munshaw on Friday, August 22nd 2014
Just How Good Can the Steelers Pass Offense be?

The Pittsburgh Steelers could sneak up on some people this year. They almost made the playoffs last season, and although they are another year older on defense, they added some pieces on both sides of the ball and got healthy, making them a serious competitor in the AFC North.

But in the modern NFL, the success of the team will rely heavily on how good the passing offense is. Although Ben Roethlisberger is entering his 11th season in the NFL, he is still one of the top quarterbacks in the league. But does he have the offensive line and the weapons to be successful?

Here’s a breakdown of what weapons Roethlisberger has at his disposal (we already know that we’re getting a reliable, sturdy and smart quarterback out of Roethlisberger as long as he stays healthy) and how good the passing attack could actually be.

 

Antonio Brown

Brown is by far and away the most talented player on the Steelers’ offense besides Roethlisberger. He torched opposing defenders last season for almost 1,500 yards and eight touchdowns.

The key for Brown his year is going to be taking on the role of being the true No. 1 receiver of Pittsburgh after the loss of Emmanuel Sanders in free agency. At 5-foot-10, Brown is a smaller receiver who is meant to run out of the slot. But with the current personnel on the Steelers’ roster, he’ll likely line up more on the outside this season.

As long as he can get off the line without being bothered by a bigger and more physical cornerback, he can get open and make guys miss in space once he has the ball in his hands. Here’s a perfect example of the kind of routes Brown is best at running.

He finished the season fifth in defense-adjusted yards above replacement, according to Football Outsiders, which gives a value of the performance of players on plays when the receiver catches the ball, compared to that player’s replacement level. To summarize: Brown is a guy the Steelers have to target.

However, the toughest challenge for Roethlisberger will be finding a red-zone target because of Brown’s small stature.

 

The rest of the receiving corps

Without Sanders and Jerricho Cotchery, who caught 10 touchdowns last season, the Steelers have a serious whole in the backup receiver role. If they play Brown in the slot, Markus Wheaton (a guy who Roethlisberger recently praised in the media) and Lance Moore are the two early favorites to play toward the sidelines.

Speedster Darrius Heyward-Bey and rookie Martavis Bryant are also in the mix. But, this could hold the pass offense as a whole back.

The Steelers finished 12th last season in defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) on offense last season, per Football Outsiders, but that was with Sanders on the team. Moore has basically done the same thing for his entire career on the New Orleans Saints — fill in when no one else is around. He does have two eight-touchdown seasons under his belt, but also as three two-touchdown seasons as well.

Wheaton is probably second in line behind Brown on Roethlisberger’s target list, but neither he nor Moore blow me away on tape. Moore probably benefitted from having Drew Brees throw to him for so long, and he’s even smaller than Brown, effectively making him a non-factor closer to the goal line.

 

Tight Ends

This list is basically Heath Miller and a bunch of other sub-par tight ends after that. Miller, for so long, has been Big Ben’s favorite target, basically everywhere on the field. Miller is best running tradition tight-end routes over the middle of the field.

Last season, Roethlisberger completed 64.8 percent of his passes over the middle, and didn’t have a single interception when throwing to that part of the field, according to ESPN, while Miller caught 24.6 percent of his passes on the year over the middle.

However, Miller’s touchdown production in his later years has been disappointing. He did have an eight-touchdown season in 2012, but in 2010 and 2011 he had just four total touchdowns combined and had one last season.

He’ll most likely be the top red zone target this season with a lack of size at receiver, but as he’s gotten older, he’s missed more time at his yards per catch reached a career low last season.

 

Running Backs

This is tough to project after the arrest of Le’Veon Bell and LeGarrette Blount. But, neither of them are really threats to catch the ball out of the backfield. So, assuming both backs miss some time this season with suspensions (although, with Roger Goodell’s recent history, there’s no guarantee this will be sorted out in a timely manner), Dri Archer could be a great option for Roethlisberger.

Archer is incredibly fast, can catch the ball and makes defenders whiff in the open field. Exhibit A:

When Bell and Blount are in, it will take the pressure off the pass game — and the Steelers could even be a run-first offense. But Archer is a huge threat in the passing game.

 

Offensive Line

The biggest factor in the success of Pittsburgh’s passing offense this season is the offensive line. The anchor, and potential Pro Bowl center if he’s healthy, Maurkice Pouncey started just one game last season, and missed three starts between the 2012 and 2011 seasons.

Without Pouncey, the Steelers allowed the 15th most sacks of any team last season, according to NFL.com, yet they had the seventh fewest quarterback hits of any team.

Roethlisberger is great at escaping pressure and delivering the ball despite taking heat from defenders, so the offensive line gets a break in that department. He does fumble the ball a good amount (18 in the past three seasons), but he has two seasons of single-digit interceptions in his career.

As long as the offensive line gives Roethlisberger time, he can find an open receiver, no matter who is out there. But if he’s under pressure and takes a number of hits, he’s shown that he’ll sustain some pretty serious injuries that could keep him out or hinder his effectiveness.

 

Predictions

If Roethlisberger plays all 16 games, the Steelers have a good chance to finish inside the top 12 among all passing offenses. Brown is a lock for at least 1,300 yards this season, but the eight touchdowns might not repeat themselves.

Miller will pick up some of the touchdowns that Cotchery left behind, and if Heyward-Bey makes the team, he’s a threat for some deep balls.

Assuming Bell and Blount are both suspended for at least a handful of games, Archer could boost Roethlisberger’s stats with some catch-and-run plays.

Because of the lack of depth and size at wide receiver, the ceiling for this pass defense is probably 10th in the league, and if Brown or Roethlisberger miss any time, the basement could be pretty serious. 

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