Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford is the ultimate tease. Coming out of Georgia, scouts fell in love with his arm strength, ball placement, mechanics, durability and leadership capabilities. The football gods couldn't have created much better of a physical specimen than Stafford. Yet after six seasons and in the midst of a contract that averages nearly $18 million per year, the football world is still waiting for Stafford to prove himself as a top-10 quarterback.
When the Detroit Lions drafted Stafford with the first overall pick in 2009, expectations were for the gunslinger to become one of the best quarterbacks in the league. Stafford battled injuries early, missing six games in his rookie season and 13 games in 2010. After two seasons, he had played in just 13 games with 19 touchdowns and 21 interceptions.
Sports talk radio in Detroit started to change their tune on Stafford, the once heralded quarterback now had the premature "bust" label attached to his name. There were doubts about his throwing shoulder coming off surgery and many wondered if Detroit made another mistake of many over the years.
We saw a rebirth in 2011, Stafford reached new heights and was suddenly recognized as a top-10 quarterback. He had an MVP-like season with 41 touchdown passes, 5,038 passing yards and completed 63.5 percent of his passes. The Lions were back in the playoffs and while they had an early exit, the stage was set for a new era of greatness.
Entering the 2012 season, many were back on the Stafford wagon and believed he was set to take another step forward into top-five quarterback territory. He finally stayed healthy and the sky was the limit, while Detroit still had multiple players dealing with off-the-field issues, the Lions had 18-1 Super Bowl odds. Instead, Detroit took a major step back and finished 4-12. While Stafford finished 33 yards short of 5,000, his completion percentage dropped to 59.3, he threw 17 interceptions and his touchdown total dropped from 41 to 20. The Lions put too much pressure on Stafford's arm, allowing him to throw for an NFL-record 727 pass attempts during the season.
Things have leveled off more since that 2012 season. The Lions have scaled back his passing attempts from 727 in 2012 to 634 in 2013 and 602 last season. Over the past two seasons, Stafford has started every game and finally in 2014, we saw the Lions finally bring in an offensive-minded coaching staff to help tutor him. As a result, he only attempted 602 passes last season and head coach Jim Caldwell guarantees that number will be even lower this season. In 2014, the Lions finished 11-5 and made another trip to the playoffs.
Stafford's career has been a rollercoaster, from the lows of missing 19 games in his first two seasons, the high of his near record-setting 2012 season and the ups and downs from 2012 to the present. It's remarkable to think that even after six seasons in the NFL, Stafford just turned 27 in February.
We reach the question, what level of quarterback is Stafford? If you are building a franchise for the next eight years, his tools and age certainly vault him into the top-10. But in the present, Stafford's value perception jumps around. He is certainly paid like a top-10 quarterback and he can put up outstanding numbers, but he fails to consistently produce and make his teammates better.
Under new offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi, Stafford was expected to make major improvements. After two years of sloppy mechanics and footwork, many hoped a coaching staff devoted to helping him, could help correct his inconsistent mechanics. With a full offseason and thousands of reps, Stafford's mechanics could improve and he would cut down on the interceptions and push his completion above 60 percent.
That goal was reached, Stafford finished the year completing 60.3 percent of his passes, marking only the second time in his career of reaching that mark. We saw more stability in the pocket in 2014, it led to his higher completion percentage and a career-low 12 interceptions. Even with Calvin Johnson limited for more than a month, Stafford performed well when the pocket held. But was Stafford actually better in 2014 or did he actually take a step backwards overall?
2013 2014
Courtesy of Pro Football Focus' passes by direction, we can see Stafford's passing numbers from 2013 to 2014 decline nearly across the board. Despite the overall increase in completion percentage, Stafford's grade, especially over the middle of the field, dropped noticeably. The numbers may look similar overall, but poor decisions and throws need to be factored in. These issues are magnified even more when you get in Stafford's face and make him throw smart decision-making, centered feet and sound mechanics.
Pressure is also a major aspect of the quarterback position. You can shine when the pocket is clean and you have time, but things get hectic when pressure comes and the quarterback's mental clock dramatically shrinks. Detroit has improved its offensive line over the years, so Stafford didn't face an exorbitant amount of pressure. In fact, he finished 16th in percent of drop backs under pressure (31.9) per PFF.
When he was under pressure, Stafford's mechanics and footwork were put to the test. He didn't have time to set his feet and as a result, many of his throws were off the mark. That's further proven by his completion percentage under pressure, where he finished 23rd with a 40 percent completion rate. Detroit can upgrade its offensive line once again in the draft, addressing offensive guard or even right tackle.
If the Lions upgrade the offensive line, you can see some improvement from Stafford. He will have more time to throw, the Lions will have a more balance attack with an improved running game and this offense can go further. But even if that happens, Stafford has settled in to his role for the next five-plus years.
He is a talented quarterback who can put up great numbers, but inconsistent mechanics, footwork and poor decision-making remain. While hope remains that it can improve under more coaching, at some point you have to just acknowledge this is who Stafford is and will always be.
In the end, Stafford's a slightly above-average quarterback who can compete and help you stay in the playoff hunt, but never push you that step further like a top-10 quarterback can. As long as people realize this and stop expecting that major jump, Stafford is perfectly positioned and valued where he should be amongst his peers. If Detroit wants to move past the Green Bay Packers in the NFC North, they need to start focusing their efforts on building a standout defense and stop using early picks on more weapons for Stafford.