2015 Review
The Kansas City Chiefs offense was poised for a strong year when they entered the 2015 season. While the Chiefs started 1-3 to begin the season, Jamaal Charles was the second-best running back in fantasy football with over 450 total yards and five total touchdowns. With Charles making things happen both as a running back and receiver out of the backfield, it opened up the door for Kansas City's passing game.
Through the first four games of the season, Alex Smith was the 12th-best quarterback in fantasy football. He was in a rhythm, had more options to throw to and his receivers found themselves open more with defenses focused on stopping Charles. As a result of Smith's success, Jeremy Maclin was a top-15 fantasy receiver through the first four weeks.
Unfortunately, Charles went down in Week 5 and missed the rest of the season with a torn ACL. Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware alternated being the "featured" backs of Kansas City's running game. While combined they were effective, it still put a bit of a damper on the Chiefs' offense. Smith only saw a slight drop as he finished top-15 in fantasy points from Week 6-17, while Maclin dropped from top-15 in fantasy points from Week 1-4 to 21 from Week 6-17. But Kelce took the biggest hit, as he finished as the 10th-highest scoring tight end in Week 6-17.
Quarterback: Alex Smith
Fantasy owners never expect Smith to be a top-10 fantasy quarterback for an entire season, but he certainly has value. Last season, Smith mixed together some quality rushing yards with his numbers throwing the football to elevate himself. Overall his numbers over 16 games were solid; 20 passing touchdowns, nearly 3,500 passing yards, 498 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns.
But there are issues with Smith and it's why he is best served as a spot starter in fantasy football who owners only turn to when there is the right matchup. Last season amongst quarterbacks with 12-plus starts, Smith finished 19th in fantasy consistency, as he scored 15-plus fantasy points in 63 percent of his games. Accumulating passing yards has never been Smith's fantasy tool, he threw for under 200 yards in eight of his 16 starts last year, six of which all were in the last six weeks of the regular season.
Looking ahead to the 2016 season, we could likely see more 200-plus yard games from Smith as long as Charles stays healthy. Charles is a dynamic weapon out of the backfield and opened the passing game up more, which should help lead to some better throwing lanes for Smith. He will never be a 4,000-yard guy, but he could have another 20-plus touchdown season with 3,400-3,700 yards and once again be a top-15 fantasy quarterback.
Running Back: Jamaal Charles, Spencer Ware and Charcandrick West
Before his injury, Charles was on pace for another incredible season. He had already surpassed 500 total yards before his injury and the season wasn't even 1/3 of the way through. But the torn ACL ended his season and left many holding some doubts about his future given it was the second torn ACL of his career. Coming off a second torn ACL, it's understandable to have some concern about his ability to return to 100 percent.
While there is certainly risk with taking Charles, he is going in the second round currently and offers the upside of an elite RB1. He recovered very well from his previous torn ACL and because once again in this case it happened early last season, he had extended recovery time to make sure the knee checked out and he could move and cut as easily as before. There have already been indications that if Charles is healthy, his workload won't be limited and he is set to play once the regular season kicks off. His versatility as a running back/receiver stockpiles yards, no matter if Kansas City is trailing or ahead.
If Charles doesn't suffer another injury, then Ware and West have very limited fantasy value and given that handcuffs that pan out are hard to predict on a year-to-year basis, should probably be avoided as they sit outside the top 50 fantasy running backs entering the season. If Charles does suffer an injury, then you should go ahead and pick them up, with the focus being on Ware, who worked ahead of West in Kansas City's first preseason game and seems to have more trust from the coaching staff.
Wide Receiver: Jeremy Maclin, Albert Wilson and Chris Conley
Maclin still found fantasy significant fantasy value last season, something that has been rare for Chiefs' wide receivers who have Smith as their quarterback. He finished last season as a top-20 fantasy wide receiver, which is especially impressive given teams had a much better opportunity to take him away when Kansas City's running game took the big hit.
Maclin's consistency was also top 20 amongst wide receivers, as he cracked 10-plus fantasy points in nearly half of his games. Now with a healthy Charles, Maclin should remain at least a top-25 receiver this season, who can offer a good source of receptions, yards and touchdowns. He is still in the prime of his career at 28 and should be a solid WR2 in fantasy this year.
But trusting Wilson or Conley in fantasy will be difficult. Last season of Smith's 470 pass attempts, 124 went to Maclin, 100 went to Travis Kelce and 69 went to the trio of Kansas City's running backs. 293 of 470 targets, 62 percent, went to one wide receiver, one tight end and three running backs, there wasn't nearly enough targets to go around for Wilson or Conley to be fantasy relevant and not all targets equate to receptions. There's just no way you can trust Wilson or Conley in fantasy this year, there just aren't enough targets.
Tight End: Travis Kelce
Kelce is a fantasy darling. His size, athleticism and ability to make plays has always teased and drawn the eye, everyone just waited for it all to come together. We saw glimpses of it last season, Kelce started off the year with a 100-yard, two-touchdown game. But there also were also plenty of games that left fantasy owners sad and wishing they had more, as Kelce had just six games this season with 60-plus receiving yards.
He wasn't consistent, though a strong case could be made that the loss of Charles and Andy Reid still using Kelce heavily as a blocker, hurt Kelce from reaching his true statistical upside. There were of course some drops, which is a large part of what some fantasy owners remember because it's the biggest moments of failure and success that stick in people's memories. Kelce finished last season as a top-seven tight end in most fantasy leagues, this season he should come through as a top-five tight end with a healthy Charles. There is always going to be some risk on a week-to-week basis given the Chiefs' style of offense, but Kelce is too talented to sway away from and should put up enough numbers to be amongst the high-end, second-tier of the tight end position.