A quarterback can easily finish as a top-10 fantasy player at his position and still struggle making a consistent impact. We have seen this year after year around the fantasy football world. This is also one of the reasons why eDraft came up with its own advanced metric called "player consistency."
The premise is simple. When a quarterback puts up 300-plus passing yards and/or two touchdowns, he's put in one category for that week. When he doesn't, he's put in a completely different category.
That's where you get our consistency metric (or percentage).
Check out the complete list here.
Here are some of the most inconsistent fantasy quarterbacks from a season ago.
Note: I am only including quarterbacks that finished in the top 15 of our overall quarterback rankings from 2013. Needless to say, the Chad Henne's and Sam Bradford's of the world didn't put up enough consistency to even be suggested as potential QB1 options in 2014.
1. Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco 49ers
Kaepernick finished as the ninth-best fantasy quarterback last season, but ranked 23rd in our consistency metrics. This means that he put up some huge games at times, but also tallied some horrible fantasy performances throughout the season. It goes without saying that some of this had to do with the injury to Michael Crabtree, but the inconsistency (at least from a fantasy perspective) has to be alarming.
He tallied 300-plus yards and/or two-plus touchdowns in seven of his 16 starts a year ago. Kaepernick put up less than 200 yards nine times, failed to throw a touchdown four times and only attempted 30-plus passes three times. The star quarterback threw for 300 yards just twice and accounted for three touchdown passes just two times.
The reason why Kaepernick ranked in the top-10 among fantasy quarterbacks is that when he was on, he was on. Look at the two games that bookended the season. Kaepernick tallied 768 total yards and five touchdowns against the Green Bay Packers (Week 1) and Arizona Cardinals (Week 17). With that said, he put up less than 300 passing yards with one touchdown and four interceptions in two games against the Seattle Seahawks.
It's not like we are depending on him as a starter against Seattle in the first place, but that shows you a lack of consistency based on the level of competition and San Francisco's game-plan heading into a specific week. Kaepernick is obviously still a QB1 option, especially with the talent that is now surrounding him, but don't expect him to be among the most consistent fantasy options in 2014.
2. Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers
Big Ben was a fringe QB1 option in 2013. He ranked 12th overall in fantasy points among quarterbacks, just a few points ahead of the likes of Alex Smith and Tom Brady. He wasn't, however, what you would call consistent. He crossed that threshold just eight times in 16 starts and threw less than two touchdowns a whopping nine times.
While Roethlisberger did tally over 4,200 yards on the season, 36 percent of those yards came in four of Pittsburgh's losses. This is an indication that he was forced to throw the ball a ton with him team fell behind early. The interesting dynamic here is that Roethlisberger did tally 11 touchdowns compared to just five interceptions in those four losses.
When looking at his touchdown passes, it becomes readily apparent that Roethlisberger simply can't be relied on to perform as a QB1 option on a weekly basis. Almost 40 percent of his touchdown passes on the season came in three games. Think about that for a second before considering him as a bottom-end QB1 option in 2014.
3. Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers
Newton is a surprising inclusion in this article. He ranked third among all quarterbacks in fantasy points, but was only the 18th-most consistent quarterback on the season. He put up less than 200 yards or less than two passing touchdowns 10 times. A total of 38 percent of his touchdown passes came in just three games with the other 62 percent coming in 81 percent of his starts.
More importantly, 55 percent of his fantasy output came in just five games. That's not exactly what you'd call being consistent. Without the same receiving weapons as last season, it's easy to expect Newton to take a step back in terms of his overall fantasy output. Couple that with a lack of consistency, and don't buy too high on the talented quarterback.
4. Tom Brady, New England Patriots
Unfortunately for those of you who have relied on Brady for fantasy production throughout his Hall of Fame career, he's simply not the same player in fake football as he used to be. It's nothing against Brady, as most of this has to do with a change in philosophy as it relates to the Patriots offensive scheme and their lack of talented receiving options.
All these components need to be taken into account when determining whether a quarterback should be relied on weekly. For Brady, that's not the case anymore.
He was nothing more than a top-tier QB2 option in standard 12-team leagues, behind Alex Smith of all people. Brady tallied 300-plus yards six times on the season, but three-plus touchdowns just twice. This ranked him 16th in overall consistency at 50 percent.
5. Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks
Much like Kaepernick, this Super Bowl winning quarterback finds himself on this list due to indicators completely out of his control. Wilson attempted the least amount of passes of any regular starter last season at about 25.4 per game. He attempted 30-plus passes four times and put the ball in the air less than 20 times a total of three times. Wilson also tallied one touchdown pass or less in half of his starts, while putting up 39 percent of his touchdown passes in three games.
This is one of the reasons why Wilson is valued so low in terms of ADP in the lead up to the 2014 fantasy football season. Unless the Seahawks go to a more pass-happy offense, which wouldn't make much sense, he's going to be an iffy proposotion from a consistency standpoint. It really is that simple.