Key to the Game
Green Bay: Feed Eddie Lacy
By now, everyone knows about Aaron Rodgers calf injury. It's been an issue for a month now and has shown no signs of getting better, even after a week of rest. When Rodgers returned from the wild card bye to face the Dallas Cowboys, he was almost a statue in the pocket. Fortunately, the Cowboys were unable to get much pressure on Rodgers and made life easy for him.
Things won't be as easy in the NFC Championship against a Seahawks defense who held a healthy Rodgers to 189 yards with one touchdown and an interception. Back in Week One, Rodgers was healthy and free to roll out of the pocket when pressured. While he is the same smart, accurate quarterback who can fit a ball into a window the size of a dime, the game plan this week can't be placed on Rodgers' shoulders.
It has to start on the first drive, feed Lacy the ball right out of the pistol formation. It's something we saw against Dallas, with two backs in the backfield, Lacy and fullback John Kuhn. Sitting behind Rodgers, Lacy has the extra steps to gain momentum going downhill and find a hole and power through it. He can break through the initial arm tackles, then have Kuhn lead blocking in front of him to help turn a five-yard gain into a 15-yard run.
While the Seahawks have the best defense in football and arguably one of the best in the past decade, injuries in the middle create an opportunity to try and attack the defense. Running right up the gut will counteract Seattle bring pressure off the edge or sending the blitz. The Seahawks have the linebackers to keep Lacy from breaking off a lot of big runs, but all Green Bay needs is four yards per carry. It will set up third and short opportunities, taking pressure off Rodgers and setting up the play action.
Having success with the running game can draw Kam Chancellor in closer to the box, allowing more space for a wide receiver or tight end to get separation. More importantly, it can eat up the clock if Green Bay has the lead and will keep Marshawn Lynch off the field. If Seattle keeps Lacy under 50 yards and gets pressure on Rodgers, they can quickly plan their trip for the Super Bowl.
Seattle: Hit Aaron Rodgers
It's simple for Seattle–the game is over if they can beat up on Rodgers and force him to win it with his arm. Rodgers will be on an island and it will be Dan Quinn's job to raid and destroy it.
They must first see if their front four can win against the Packers offensive line. It's certainly been a better group than what fans saw to open the season, but Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett can create havoc on the ends. Seattle will look to attack Packers left tackle David Bakhtiari with power. Bakhtiari has held up well in pass protection, but can be pushed aside like a blocking sled while trying to open up running lanes.
You can also expect CenturyLink Field to be as loud as ever, with Seahawks fans looking to get someone on the Packers to jump. While Green Bay has been pretty disciplined this season, there is no real preparation you can do for the sound levels experienced in Seattle. This will be especially difficult on Corey Linsley who has made 17 starts at center in his rookie season, but has made a fair share of mistakes with the snap and timing. You could also see some a-gap blitzes brought against Linsley, trying to confuse the center and not allow Rodgers to step up in the pocket.
This is Not Week One
Depending on whom you talk to or what show you watch, some will point to the Seahawks 36-16 win over the Packers in the NFL opener. The score certainly indicates a blowout, so naturally it makes for easy discussion and an easy comparison if you ignore the changes.
Seattle was certainly the better team in Week 1, but both lineups have seen some change since the teams last met. Corey Linsley made his NFL debut in Seattle and played fairly well in the hostile environment. Now months later, the rookie graded out as Pro Football Focus' fifth-rated center, earning a positive run-blocking and pass-blocking grade.
Early in the season opener, Green Bay lost starting right tackle Bryan Bulaga to an MCL injury, he was replaced by Derek Sherrod. Sherrod was a turnstile for three quarters, especially when he allowed Cliff Avril get two sacks in key situations. Bulaga is now healthy and has had a strong season, grading out as Pro Football Focus' 16th-best offensive tackle and fourth-rated right tackle.
Seattle has also seen their share of changes since the opener, including parting ways with Percy Harvin. While it's hard to remember Harvin having great games with the Seahawks, he caused havoc against Green Bay's defense. Seahawks offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell moved Harvin around, using sweeps, motions and screens to get Harvin space against the secondary. He finished with 100 total yards of offense and provided an equal threat as a decoy in the running game.
Seattle will also be without defensive tackle Brandon Mebane, who has been an excellent run-disruptor throughout his career, he has since been replaced inside by veteran Kevin Williams, who has certainly showed his age and physical decline. This will make things harder for the Seahawks if Green Bay pounds the defense up the middle with Lacy. But this is still an excellent defense that will find ways to limit the Packers' offense.
Matchups to Watch
Bryan Bulaga versus Cliff Avril:
As mentioned above, Avril wrecked the Packers when Sherrod came into the game in the opener. His speed around the edge was too much for Sherrod and he got after Rodgers. Now Bulaga is healthy and will have his shot at quieting Avril's speed off the edge, a battle he must win with a one-legged quarterback behind him.
The fight in the trenches is really where this game will be decided. Rodgers movement out of the pocket will be limited, giving Seattle opportunities to knock him around. Green Bay's offensive line has greatly improved over the season and proved versus Buffalo they can stop a great front-four. If that happens versus Seattle and Bulaga can keep Avril off Rodgers, the Seahawks will be forced to send extra pressure.
Clay Matthews versus Clay Matthews:
This is certainly unusual to see listed in key matchups, but Matthews' biggest obstacle is himself. Against the Seahawks in Week 1 and the past two games against the Detroit Lions and Dallas Cowboys, Matthews overagressiveness has hurt him. He has a great motor but his lack of patience means when he locks on to a target, he goes full steam ahead and won't sit and watch the football.
More teams have taken advantage of this, especially the Seahawks in recent meetings. Moving guys like Harvin around and using read-options, counter and fakes. Matthews bites on the first thing he sees and that's when the left tackle can knock him over or Matthews over pursues and is taken out of the play. Against Seattle, Matthews' will need to play disciplined and follow the ball. If he can do that, Green Bay has a good shot at getting the win.
Injury Report
Green Bay:
Aaron Rodgers (calf) - Probable
Eddie Lacy (knee) - Probable
Josh Boyd (ankle) - Probable
Seattle:
Justin Britt (knee) - Probable
Byron Maxwell (illness) - Probable
Tony McDaniel (shoulder) - Probable
Stat Projections
Green Bay:
Aaron Rodgers: 19/27, 246 yards, 2 TD's, 1 INT
Eddie Lacy: 25 carries, 93 yards, 1 TD
Jordy Nelson: Seven receptions, 86 yards, 1 TD
Seattle:
Russell Wilson: 20/31, 223 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT
Marshawn Lynch: 27 carries, 109 yards, 2 TD's
Luke Willson: Six receptions, 76 yards, 1 TD
Prediction: Green Bay 27 Seattle 24