Two of the most storied franchises in NFL history meet again in the playoffs. They don't play lockdown defense where just getting a field goal is an accomplishment, this is an old west shootout. It's built up as the type of game that could go down in history, one of the best football fans have witnessed in years.
There are plenty of storylines in this game. Can the Packers overcome their recent playoff struggles? Are the Dallas Cowboys a legit Super Bowl contender? Can either quarterback get it done in the playoffs? What this game really comes down to is 11 versus 11, how will the defenses fare against two of the top-five offenses in the game.
Cowboys Offense vs. Packers Defense
When fans think of a singular moment in Tony Romo's career, many think of the botched field goal snap in the 2007 playoffs. That reputation as a "choke-artist" carried over into last season, after Romo once again failed to win the final regular season game that would have clinched a playoff spot.
A year later, football fans are now seeing the more realistic version of Romo. After years of trying to make things work behind a patchwork offensive line, Dallas committed to building around Romo and invested heavily on the line. 2011 first-round pick Tyron Smith, 2013 first-round pick Travis Frederick and 2014 first-round pick Zack Martin have helped elevate this offense to new heights.
The obvious boost has been to the running game. DeMarco Murray led the league with over 1,800 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns. This is certainly a credit to Murray for staying healthy throughout the season and his patience to find running lanes, but things are made easier behind PFF's No.3 rated run blocking. But Murray's breakout year is also a credit to Scott Linehan who emphasized a balanced offense, his plan led to 392 carries for Murray.
That has taken pressure of Romo and allowed him to thrive this season, making a strong case for NFL Most Valuable Player. Dallas really has two MVP candidates on offense and this will be the toughest challenge Green Bay's defense has faced all season.
Defensive coordinator Dom Capers made his intentions clear about the defensive game plan, "It starts with their running game". It's the right method of attack, taking away the running game would allow the Packers' to put more pressure on Romo and turn this into the shootout Green Bay wants. The Cowboys defense has succeeded this season because they don't spend a lot of time on the field, Murray eats up the clock and takes away time of possession for the opposition.
But stopping Murray is easier said than done, even if the insertion of Sam Barrington into the rotation and shifting Clay Matthews to inside linebacker has helped turn things around. Before Matthews was shifted inside in Week 10, the Packers allowed 1,228 rushing yards or 153.5 yards per game. Easily the worst mark in the NFL and a big reason why they lost three games. After the changes with personnel, Green Bay allowed just 691 rushing yards, 86.4 yards per game, over the final eight games.
Of course, taking the running game away from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers or Atlanta Falcons is far easier than trying to limit the Cowboys running game. You aren't going to shutdown Murray, his least productive game was a 58-yard, one touchdown performance against Indianapolis just days after surgery to repair a broken bone in his hand. What's key will be attempting to hold Murray under 100 yards. If they can keep Murray's carries to minimal effect, then we should see Dallas turn to Romo.
This is what it will all come down to, can the secondary create some turnovers and prevent Dez Bryant from having a Julio Jones night. Green Bay doesn't have a shutdown corner who will shadow Bryant throughout the game. What you will see is Tramon Williams and Sam Shields mix up opportunities against him, with Ha'Sean Clinton-Dix shadowing over the top. Green Bay will also line up Davon House against Bryant, using his length to match up with his physicality. That could leave Julius Peppers and Nick Perry to blitzing off the edge, while Matthews mixes between dropping back in coverage, rushing Romo and taking away running lanes.
The focus is certainly on Bryant and Murray, but you can't sleep on Jason Witten either. He may not be as dominant as he used to but the veteran knows how to run routes and get open in the middle of the field. This will provide another challenge for Green Bay's secondary and could lead to a mix of Matthews and Micah Hyde covering him.
A great offense versus a unit of talent but mixed with plenty of questions. Can Green Bay force turnovers? Has the run defense taken a step forward? The Cowboys offense has the clear advantage and their perfectly balanced attack can win this game as long as they avoid turnovers.
Packers Offense vs. Cowboys Defense
This game all centers around Aaron Rodgers calf–is it healthy enough for him to move around and buy time or will he be a hobbled duck in the pocket. If Rodgers isn't capable of driving through his throws because of a weak leg, then the Packers chances of moving on to the NFC Championship are slim.
If Rodgers' calf is good to go and allow him to move around, then the Cowboys could be in some trouble. When Rodgers has time to throw, he is surgical with how he picks apart a secondary and moves downfield. If you give him time in the pocket, it doesn't matter how tight your coverage is, a wide receiver will just get an inch of separation and the ball will find him.
This is a problem for Dallas, who finished 28th this season in sacks with 28, just six more than Kansas City Chiefs linebacker Justin Houston had. So this will force Dallas to send extra pressure and heavily utilizing the blitz, but that just plays right into Rodgers hands.
While Rodgers is the force behind this offense, credit should certainly go to the offensive line as well. Guards Josh Sitton and T.J. Lang, along with rookie center Corey Linsley have helped turn this into one of the best pass-blocking groups across the league. Sitton hasn't allowed a sack all season despite playing on a toe that needs surgery, while right tackle Bryan Bulaga has also played very well after missing most of the past two seasons with knee injuries. Dallas has already lost Henry Melton who provided an interior pass rush, so they will be even more challenged versus Green Bay's offensive line.
If Green Bay can win the battle in the trenches, then Cowboys defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli will be relying on Orlando Scandrick, Brandon Carr and Sterling Moore to cover Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb and Davante Adams. Scandrick is likely to be matched up with Nelson, though he could also move to the slot to cover Cobb. If Scandrick shadows Nelson on the outside, then you can expect Moore to stick with Cobb in the slot. While
Scandrick and Moore aren't high-profile names at the position, both graded very highly in coverage by Pro Football Focus. The final key that could determine a victor is Rodgers 36-0 TD-INT ratio in his last 13 games, versus a Cowboys defense who finished second with 27 turnovers. Of course there will be some safety help over the top, but Marinelli must also game plan to stop Eddie Lacy.
If Marinelli opts to play with two deep safeties, you can bet Mike McCarthy will feed Lacy early and let him crash through light fronts. Dallas finished the season eighth versus the run but things will be tougher with Lacy's ability to rip through arm tackles and the focus on stopping Rodgers. The magic number for the Packers will be 100 rushing yards, if they can reach that they will likely punch their ticket to the NFC Championship.
Can Rodgers move around the pocket? Who will win the turnover battle? Can Green Bay find success running the football? These are the questions that will decide which offense is more successful and who gets the final possession and wins the game.
Injury Report
Dallas:
Rolando McClain - (neck) - Questionable
Doug Free - (ankle) - Doubtful
Green Bay:
Aaron Rodgers - (calf) - Questionable
Davon House - (shoulder) - Questionable
Stat Projections
Dallas:
Tony Romo: 22-35, 312 yards, 2 TD's, 1 INT
DeMarco Murray: 23 carries, 108 yards, 2 TD's
Dez Bryant: 10 receptions, 108 yards, 1 TD
Green Bay
Aaron Rodgers: 28-38, 365 yards, 3 TD's
Eddie Lacy: 23 carries, 94 yards, 2 TD's
Randall Cobb: 11 receptions, 98 yards, 2 TD's
Prediction: Packers 38 Cowboys 34