The NFC South continued it’s losing ways in Week 10 with all but one team losing another game. The division leading New Orleans Saints have a record of 4-5. The winner of this division still looks like it will be the first team to reach 8-8. Here’s a preview of all the NFC South matchups in Week 11:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Redskins, Sunday 1PM EST
This is a matchup that does not favor the Buccaneers. The Buccaneers are on the road against a Washington Redskins team coming off a bye. Tampa Bay is coming off a home loss to the Atlanta Falcons in Week 10 after switching back to Josh McCown as their starting quarterback. In his first game back as the starter McCown wasn’t as bad as I expected him to be, basically turning in an average performance. He had a PFF (subscription) grade of 0.4.
Against the Redskins this week, that might drop significantly. The Buccaneers do not have a good offensive line, particularly in pass protection. Their offensive line has a PFF pass blocking grade of -37.5 on the season (third worst in the NFL). Lining up across from this offensive line will be the Redskins’ pass rush with a PFF grade of 14.3 (13th best). The Redskins are going to get after McCown. When McCown has been under pressure this season he has thrown zero touchdowns and six interceptions and has been sacked nine times. One way to slow down a good pass rush is to run the ball effectively. However, the Bucs haven’t been able to do that consistently this season. This week’s game against the Redskins would certainly be the perfect game to start running the ball more efficiently though considering the Redskins have a PFF run defense grade of -29.3 (fourth worst). This game is not a good matchup for the Bucs (I don’t know if any team is a good matchup for this Bucs team), I think the Redskins win this one by multiple scores.
Cincinnati Bengals at New Orleans Saints, Sunday 1PM EST
These two teams are both coming off losses in Week 10 but the way they lost couldn’t be any more different. The Bengals got drubbed last Thursday night to the Cleveland Browns. It was an embarrassing night for the whole team. The Saints, on the other hand, lost an overtime thriller at home to the San Francisco 49ers.
The Bengals’ defense has not been performing to the level they are use to in Cincinnati. When you’re going up against Drew Brees and the rest of the Saints’ offense, you could be in for a long day. The Bengals have the worst overall defense in the NFL according to PFF. Their run defense grade is -31.8 (third worst), their pass rush grade is -35.1 (worst), and their pass coverage grade is -8.2 (ranked 18th in the league). Expect the Saints to feed the Bengals a heavy dose of running backs Mark Ingram and Travaris Cadet early in the game to soften up the coverage. Once their able to achieve this with their run game and intermediate passing attack, big things will open up down the field. Look for Brees to have a couple long passes to rookie wide receiver Brandin Cooks, who no one on the Bengals can cover step for step.
Saints defensive coordinator Rob Ryan is going to have a field day getting pressure on Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton. This season Dalton has been under pressure only 23% of the time. However, when he has been under pressure he hasn’t handled it very well. When under pressure he has 24 completions on 55 attempts for 401 yards, two touchdowns, three interceptions, and eleven sacks. The Bengals will, however, most likely be able to have some success on the ground to take some pressure off of Dalton. But in the end, I think the Saints will be too much for the Bengals. The Saints don’t lose often at home and it’s even more rare they lose two in a row at home (last time they lost two consecutive home games was in Weeks 1 and 2 of the 2012 season, the season head coach Sean Peyton was suspended). I expect another close game but this time the Saints will come out on top by a touchdown.
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers, Sunday 1PM EST
This matchup is a battle for second place in the NFC South. The Falcons sit at 3-6 right now while the Panthers are at 3-6-1. The Falcons are coming off of a good win against the Buccaneers while the Panthers are coming off an embarrassing loss on Monday Night Football at the hands of the Philadelphia Eagles. After that loss everything seems to be crumbling around the Panthers.
Last season the Panthers went 12-4 and relied a great deal on a stout defense. This year that defense has been pretty bad while the offense has regressed as well. In particular, the Panthers’ secondary is abysmal and will be going against the likes of Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, and Roddy White. This isn’t exactly a group that most secondaries look forward to playing against. Look for the Falcons offense to really have their way with this depleted Panthers defense.
On the other side of the ball it’s one bad unit going against another bad unit. The Panthers have a whole list of issues on offense, starting with Cam Newton apparently being injured. Everyone knew Newton had ankle surgery late in the offseason, but after Carolina’s loss on Monday night Cam admitted he was still injured. On top of that, he doesn’t have anyone to throw the ball to outside of rookie wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin (who has issues with drops and route running) and tight end Greg Olsen. In the past their run game has been able to take the attention off what they lack in their passing attack, but this year both running backs, DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, have been in and out of the lineup with injuries. Making all of this worse is the Panthers’ offensive line; every one of their starting offensive linemen went undrafted.
As bad as the Panthers have been on offense, the Falcons have been equally as bad on defense. They have a bad secondary which doesn’t get any help from a front seven that has a hard time stopping the run and getting a consistent pass rush. If the Falcons want to win this game they’re going to need to get to Cam Newton and get some hits on him. Whether they get a consistent pass rush in this game or not, I think the Panthers are just not playing good football in any way right now. I see the Falcons leaving Carolina with a win and sole possession of second place in the division (if the Saints lose the Falcons could be tied for first place).