As we progress through the 2014 football season, it is becoming more and more clear that no one in the NFC South is actively trying to make the playoffs. As soon as one team moves into first, they lost their next game to move right back out of first. This week, the Carolina Panthers are on their bye week and just might move back into first place due to the simple fact that there’s no possible way for them to lose a game this week. Here’s a preview of the NFC South matchups for Week 12:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears, Sunday 1PM EST
Both teams in this game are coming off victories in Week 11. The Buccaneers pulled off the upset by beating the Washington Redskins and the Bears did what they were supposed to do and beat the Minnesota Vikings. This week two teams with their arrows pointing up will face off in Chicago.
If the Buccaneers have any chance of winning this game they’ll need to get their passing game going. The Bears have been able to generate a decent pass rush and have been stout against the run. Their pass coverage, however, has left something to be desired. According to PFF (subscription), the Bears’ pass coverage is the seventh worst in the NFL. In the pass two games, the Buccaneers’ PFF pass grade has been 5.9. The problem for the Buccaneers, like most weeks, is going to come when they have to play defense. Their pass coverage is sixth worst in the entire league and they have to go against players like Matt Forte (one of the better receiving running backs in the league), Brandon Marshall, Martellus Bennett, and Alshon Jeffery. This is a tall order for any secondary. The Bucs’ run defense is also pretty awful. They’re going to have a hard time stopping anything the Bears run at them. I expect the Bears to continue their winning ways and win this one by at least a touchdown.
Cleveland Browns at Atlanta Falcons, Sunday 1PM EST
Both the Cleveland Browns and Atlanta Falcons are in extremely tight division races. The only difference is that the last place team in the Browns’ division is better than .500 while the top team in the Falcons’ division is under .500. This is an important game for both teams but the Falcons know their division is so bad they can afford a few more losses this season and still be in contention while the Browns know if they lose this game they might not be able to overcome it down the road.
In this matchup it is strength versus strength. The Falcons excel in the pass game on offense while the Browns are good in coverage on defense. The tip the scales in their favor they’re going to need a pass rush to disrupt Matt Ryan and his timing with his receivers. Luckily for the Browns the Falcons’ offensive line is pretty bad. In run blocking they are the seventh worst line in the league while they’re about middle of the pack when it comes to pass blocking. On offense, however, the Browns should be able to move the ball just fine. Look for Brian Hoyer to have a big game, especially with wide receiver Josh Gordon set to come back from suspension this week. With the added element of Gordon in their pass game, I expect the Browns to win this game by a close margin.
Baltimore Ravens at New Orleans Saints, Monday 8:30PM EST
Both of these teams are facing must win games. The Ravens are coming off their bye week but sit at last place in their division with a 6-4 recond. The Saints are in second place in their division at 4-6. What makes this a must win for the Saints is the fact they’ve lost two straight games at home. Since head coach Sean Payton has begun coaching in New Orleans they’ve never lost three consecutive home games. The Saints are well aware of how crucial their home games are and know they can’t afford to drop another one.
The Ravens have a bad secondary and normally I’d say that’s a good thing with the way the Saints play. However, the Saints have been more efficient running the ball recently with Mark Ingram. Look for this to set up Drew Brees and tight end Jimmy Graham for a big day against the eleventh worst team in coverage. While the Ravens are bad in coverage, the Saints are even worse. No one is worse in coverage according to PFF. This game could very well turn into a shootout with Joe Flacco and Steve Smith looking to go toe to toe with Brees and Graham. If this game were at a neutral site I would pick the Ravens to win in a close one, but since the game is in New Orleans I just can’t imagine the Saints dropping three in a row at home. Because of that, I expect the Saints to win by a field goal.