Sometimes I feel like a broken record when talking about the NFC South but I’ll go ahead and say it again: no one really wants to win this division. In Week 12 the only team that benefited was the Carolina Panthers and that was simply because they didn’t play. I’m sure if they did play they would’ve found a way to lose the game. Every team in this division that had a game last week lost. And each one of them had the lead at some point in the game. I had said earlier that this division was a race to 8-8, but I’m much more confident now that it’ll only take 6-10 or 7-9 to win this division. Here’s a matchup of all the NFC South games in Week 13:
Cincinnati Bengals at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Sunday 1PM EST
The Bengals have won two consecutive games since being embarrassed by the Cleveland Browns on Thursday Night Football and they will look to make it three on Sunday. The Bucs have shown some improvement the last few weeks and, with only two wins, are still in contention for the division.
If the Bucs are going to win this game the key is the performance of quarterback Josh McCown. McCown is capable of winning this game for the Bucs but he cannot turn the ball over. The Bengals haven’t been able to generate much of a pass rush and with no pressure McCown has 918 yards, 64.7 completion percentage, six touchdowns, one interception, and a quarterback rating of 102.6. On the other side of the ball it’s going to come down to which team can control the line of scrimmage. The Bucs will need their pass rush to be effective but they’ll be up against a Bengals offensive line with a PFF (subscription) pass protection grade of 17.4, third best in the NFL. If the Bucs can get pressure on Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton and can protect McCown, they’ll be able to stay in this game. I think the Bucs will keep it close for a little while, but in the end the Bengals will be too much. I expect the Bengals to win this game by at least a touchdown.
New Orleans Saints at Pittsburgh Steelers, Sunday 1PM EST
The Saints are reeling. They’ve lost three home games in a row, although still tied for first in the division, and need a win. This game against the Steelers is not a game they can easily win however. The Saints are coming off a very disappointing loss to the Baltimore Ravens on Monday Night Football and will be playing this game on short rest. On top of that the Steelers are coming off a bye week and will have extra rest.
This is not a good matchup for the Saints, plain and simple. The Saints can’t seem to stop anyone in the passing game, they boast the worst PFF pass coverage grade in the NFL, and will be going up against Ben Roethlisberger and PFF’s second highest graded passing game. The Saints also have the tenth worst pass blocking offensive line in the NFL and will be playing against the Steelers’ ninth best pass rush. Saints quarterback Drew Brees likely won’t have much time to throw and will be hit early and often. If the line can find a way to protect Brees this game could end up being a shootout. In the end I don’t think the Saints have enough to hang with the Steelers and the Saints will lose another game. Luckily for the Saints they’ll probably still be leading the division even with another loss.
Carolina Panthers at Minnesota Vikings, Sunday 1PM EST
This matchup is one that at first blush seems like it’s lopsided towards Carolina. But when you look at these teams this season, it’s a lot more even than most people might think. The Panthers are coming off their bye week but only have three wins on the entire season. The Vikings are coming off a close loss to the Green Bay Packers and have four wins on the season.
If the Panthers are going to win this game they’re going to need to win with quarterback Cam Newton’s arm. The Vikings’ defense has been better than expected this season but their biggest weakness is their pass coverage. However, the Panthers haven’t been able to pass protect very well this season while the Vikings have been generating a moderate pass rush. On the other side of the ball the Panthers need to exploit the bad offensive line of the Vikings. According to PFF the Vikings have the fourth worst pass blocking in the NFL. If the Panthers can get consistent pressure on Vikings quarterback Teddy Bridgewater it can cover up their bad secondary. I think this game is going to be a close one but I expect the Panthers to win by a field goal.
Arizona Cardinals at Atlanta Falcons, Sunday 4:05PM EST
This is a matchup of division leaders who are both coming off losses. The Cardinals are coming off a beating by the Seattle Seahawks and the Falcons are coming off a loss to the Cleveland Browns which was basically lost due to coaching ineptitude on the part of the Falcons. Both teams will be looking to get back into the win column.
This matchup isn’t quite as lopsided as one might expect it to be between a 9-2 team and a 4-7 team. The Falcons offense certainly has the fire power to stay with just about any team. It works in the Falcons’ favor that they don’t rely on the run since the Cardinals have such a stout run defense. The problem for the Falcons is their defense. It isn’t hard to stop the Cardinals’ offense, especially since they now have Drew Stanton at quarterback and he is limited in what he’s able to do.
This offense is extremely reliant on the deep pass. There’s a good chance Larry Fitzgerald won’t play again this week, so their best intermediate route runner won’t be there to bring safeties down. Safeties will now be able to cheat back a little more to help with any deep passes. What’s going to make this game lopsided though is the difference in coaching. Bruce Arians is worlds ahead of Mike Smith. While the Falcons stand a chance to pull off the upset, I still expect the Cardinals to win by multiple scores.